2022 NFL Offseason Guide: AFC South

This is Part 8 of an eight-article series that will provide a bird's eye view of where each team stands at the start of the offseason, looking at cap space, free agents, potential cap casualties and draft capital. We can't predict the future to perfection, but it helps to know this kind of stuff if you're drafting best-ball teams or making dynasty trades in February and early March before free agency begins.

We've already covered the NFC West, the NFC North, the NFC East, the NFC South, the AFC West and the AFC North and the AFC East. And now, last but not and least, it's the AFC South, a land ruled by the Titans in recent years.

Houston Texans

Cap Space: $5 million (17th)

Potential Cap Casualties: S Eric Murray, OT Marcus Cannon, K Ka'imi Fairbairn, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, CB Terrance Mitchell

Detailed Cap Sheet: 

A Deshaun Watson trade adds $24 or $35 million of 2022 cap space, depending on the timing (before/after June 1). For Brandin Cooks, it's $8.7 million vs. $13.7 million, though he's less likely to be traded.

Apart from that, the Texans are looking at smaller cuts, as Watson, Cooks and LT Laremy Tunsil are the only guys on the roster scheduled for 2022 cap hits above $7 million. If you're wondering why they don't have more cap space... A) Watson, B) $35.4 million in dead money from last year's trades/cuts, e.g., Zach Cunningham, Whitney Mercilus, Randall Cobb.

Plus, they can free up $5.5 million by cutting Murray, $5.2 million with Cannon, $3.6 million with Fairbairn and a few more million here and there by getting rid of various backup-quality players.

In other words, the Texans have plenty of flexibility to be spenders in free agency if they want... but it might make sense to roll some/most of the cap space over to 2023 instead, given that there's little to no hope of a playoff berth this upcoming season. 

Key Free Agents: QB Tyrod Taylor, RB David Johnson, RB Royce Freeman, WR Chris Conley, WR Danny Amendola, TE Pharaoh Brown, TE Jordan Akins, CB Desmond King, LB Christian Kirksey, LB Kamu Grugier-Hill, C Justin Britt, OLB Jacob Martin, OT Geron Christian, DT Maliek Collins

Draft Capital: 1st (3), 2nd (37), 3rd (68), 3rd (80), 4th (135), 6th (181), 6th (204), 6th (206), 7th (243)

The Texans have a lot of 2021 snaps headed for free agency, and in many cases they'll just say 'good riddance'. Their only extra top-100 pick is in Round 3, but they'll add at least one more if they trade Watson.

The (Way-Too-Early) Verdict: The Texans don't have enough cap space or draft capital, among other things, to pull off a worst-to-first turnaround (plus, they technically didn't finish in last place!). They're also short on promising young players, and thus remain in play as a potential destination for any of the top players in the draft at QB, RB, WR and TE. No team has more needs to fill, but the Texans can at least get started on a real rebuild now, if they so choose. Most of the bad contracts, at least the bigger ones, have been cleared off the team's books already.

Indianapolis Colts

Cap Space: $36.1 million (5th)

Potential Cap Casualties: TE Jack Doyle, DT Grover Stewart 

Detailed Cap Sheet: 

The Colts have a lot of cap space and really only one bad contract. That'd be QB Carson Wentz, who has $15 million of his $22 million base salary guaranteed as part of a $28.3 million cap hit in 2022. That's not a bad price for a mid-range starter; the problem here is that Wentz hasn't been even that for years now. Frank Reich did a good job hiding him most weeks, but the truth was eventually exposed whenever the Colts needed Wentz to put the team on his back.

The good news? They can move on from Wentz without any dead-cap charge after this season, and can even free up all $28.3 million for 2022 if they find a trade partner in the offseason (a scenario which presumably involves the Colts securing another QB).

Key Free Agents: WR Zach Pascal, WR T.Y. Hilton, TE Mo Alie-Cox, LT Eric Fisher, RG Mark Glowinski, CB Xavier Rhodes, S Andrew Sendejo

Draft Capital: 2nd (47), 3rd (82), 4th (120), 5th (158), 5th (177), 6th (217), 7th (237), 7th (238)

The Colts have nine impending free agents who played at least 40 percent of snaps on either offense or defense in 2021, but it's mostly older guys who were below-average starters (or worse) last season. Glowinski is probably the best of the bunch, 29 years old and coming off three straight seasons with at least 14 starts for the Colts.

Anyway, they won't be losing any stars in free agency, but also aren't likely to add one through the draft without a first-round pick.

The (Way-Too-Early) Verdict: The Colts are a potential destination for top QBs, WRs and TEs in both free agency and the draft, though with some limitations pertaining to the latter on account of not having a first-round pick. They do have plenty of cap space, and all of their top wide receivers and tight ends from last season are impending free agents or potential cap casualties. Chris Godwin, anyone?

Jacksonville Jaguars

Cap Space: $47.5 million

Potential Cap Casualties: LB Myles Jack, C Brandon Linder, DL Dawuane Smoot

Detailed Cap Sheet: 

Per usual, the Jaguars have a ton of cap space, having repeatedly failed to draft enough players worthy of big second contracts. They can add more if they get rid of Jack ($8.35 million savings), Linder ($9.5 million) and Smoot ($4.6 million), though all three were starters last season.

Key Free Agents: WR D.J. Chark, WR Laquon Treadwell, LG Andrew Norwell, LT Cam Robinson, LB Damien Wilson, S Andrew Wingard, OL Tyler Shatley, OG A.J. Cann

Draft Capital: 1st (3), 2nd (33), 3rd (65), 3rd (70), 4th (104), 5th (156), 6th (178), 6th (186), 6th (196), 6th (197), 7th (220), 7th (233)

Norwell, Robinson and Cann are veteran O-line starters, though Cann was out after Week 4 with a knee injury. Really, Norwell and Robinson are the key guys here, though neither earned a PFF grade among the top half of starters at his position last year.

Draft capital, naturally, is where Jacksonville shines, with at least one pick in every round, and multiple selections in the third (65, 70), sixth (178, 186, 196, 197) and seventh (220, 223).

The (Way-Too-Early) Verdict: Even in the unlikely event they start to do smart things instead of dumb things, the Jags would be a year away from competing. But that doesn't mean they won't be aggressive, as last season was outright embarrassing and they need more talent around Trevor Lawrence to properly evaluate him.

The Jags should have interest in top free agents at both WR and TE, even if they re-sign Chark and keep Marvin Jones around. That means guys like Treadwell (a free agent) and Dan Arnold (under contract for one more year) won't necessarily have significant roles, though they did seem to have better chemistry with Lawrence than the bigger names last year.

Tennessee Titans

Cap Space: -$9.9 million (24th)

Potential Cap Casualties: WR Julio Jones, LT Taylor Lewan, G Rodger Saffold, LB Zach Cunningham, P Brett Kern, OT Kendall Lamm

Detailed Cap Sheet: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/tennessee-titans/

Jones, Lewan and Saffold have well-earned reputations as quality starters, but the first two are coming off injury-marred seasons and the latter turns 34 in June. Saffold can be cut at any time with a cap savings of nearly $10.5 million. For Jones, it'd be $9.4 million if he's designated as a post-June 1 cut, or up to $11.4 million if the Titans can somehow trade him ($2 million of his base salary is guaranteed already).

For Lewan, the savings would be $12.9 million... which isn't all that much for someone who was regarded as a top blindside protector as recently as a year or two ago. Cunningham is the easy cut, with a savings of $10 million after the Titans picked him off waivers a few months ago (they were never going to keep him for 2022, absent a huge pay cut).

Key Free Agents: DE/OLB Harold Landry, OL David Quessenberry, C Ben Jones, LB Jayon Brown, TE Geoff Swaim, TE Anthony Firkser, K Randy Bullock, WR Chester Rogers, RB D'Onta Foreman, RB Dontrell Hilliard

Draft Capital: 1st (26), 3rd (90), 4th (129), 4th (142), 5th (168), 6th (203), 6th (219)

The Titans don't have second- or seventh-round picks but do have compensatory selections in the fourth and sixth. Their free-agent class is highlighted by Landry, a 2018 second-round pick who's coming off career highs for sacks (12) and QB hits (22). Also headed for free agency are two O-line starters, Jones and Quessenberry, along with a solid linebacker in Brown and a slew of replaceable depth players at the skill positions on offense (with all due respect to Foreman).

Looking at the team right now, it's hard to say who will see targets in 2022 apart from A.J. Brown; there's a good chance Option B (and maybe Option C as well) will be someone who isn't currently on the roster. It'll also be worth tracking their backfield backup situation, as both Foreman and Hilliard can become unrestricted free agents in March. Neither is likely to get much guaranteed money, so there's a good chance one or both end up back in Nashville.

The (Way-Too-Early) Verdict: Unless they're thinking Julio can stay healthy, the Titans desperately need receiving help this offseason. And while they don't have much cap space at first glance, they can still be major players in free agency, especially if they move on from Jones and are willing to go younger/cheaper on the O-line.

The risk there, of course, is that any gains in the receiving corps would be offset by lesser blocking, though the Titans' line has already declined somewhat from its top-five form of a few years ago. Still, it was a solid unit even without Lewan in 2021, and a decline to mediocre or subpar would add a bit of risk to King Derrick Henry.

This should still be a good enough team to play spoiler in the top-heavy AFC, particularly if their big offseason addition isn't a complete whiff like the Julio trade last spring. Someone younger and healthier, even if they're less talented, might do the trick alongside a still-improving Brown, and thus give Tannehill a shot to bounce back from his disappointing 2021 (in fantasy terms).