College Football Picks: Missouri vs Texas A&M Best Bets
Undefeated No. 3 Texas A&M faces its last stern test before a rivalry game against Texas on Saturday when it travels to face No. 22 Missouri. The Aggies are 8-0 SU, though just 4-4 ATS to date, with the over hitting six times largely thanks to their prolific offense, which needed just two more points to get that mark single-handedly two weeks ago at LSU. The Tigers counter with a 6-2 SU record, going 4-3-1 ATS. Their games have gone over four times, though each of the last four went under. Both teams are coming off of a Week 10 bye.
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Missouri vs Texas A&M Betting Odds for Week 11
Spread: Missouri +7.0 ( BetMGM); Texas A&M -6.5 (ESPN Bet)
Total: Over 48.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Under 48.5 (ESPN Bet)
Moneyline: Missouri +230 (BetMGM); Texas A&M -267 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Line movement in this contest, or lack thereof, is very puzzling. The spread sits exactly where it opened as of Thursday evening, and has only moved down and up a half point from where it originated. The total has seen a bit more movement, opening at 49.5, bottoming out at 47.5, and has seemingly settled at this current 48.5 point mark, so we're still just seeing minor fluctuations despite both spread and total numbers being right around key numbers.
And despite the lack of line movement, the moneyline actually has moved. The Aggies have gone from (-218) to (-270), while the home side has gone from (+180) to (+225). Someone make that make sense when the spread hasn't changed. I understand Missouri is without their quarterback, more on this below, but is his replacement is good enough to still keep the Tigers in it, while alternatively not getting blown out?
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Missouri vs Texas A&M Betting Picks for Week 11
So, about Missouri's quarterback. Beau Pribula went down early against Vanderbilt and will not play. He's QB2 after Sam Horn was injured in the season opener, which now leaves Matt Zollers as the starter, and the only scholarship option available for the Tigers. While Pribula was sound early, he's labored through the SEC slate, so perhaps Zollers, with the bye week to get added reps, isn't a huge downgrade. Where I'm concerned, however, is the lack of depth. Missouri will occasionally call designed quarterback runs, but both Pribula and Zollers are willing scramblers. With nothing behind him, how aggressive or conservative does Eli Drinkwitz get with his play calling?
The trends noted in the opener don't lend much confidence to either team covering or a total. Nor does recent history; these two don't play annually, but the last two matchups have been dominated by the Aggies. To counter that, we kind of just expect a Texas A&M collapse late in the season. They are 3-5 in November in two years under Mike Elko after promising starts.
We've got two elite defenses against both the run and pass, two elite rushing attacks, but only the Aggies have proven they can score consistently. If that manifests, this could turn into a blowout with Zollers forced to throw too often, and mistakes will follow, and so will an over. That seems the most likely scenario. But it's Texas A&M's third-straight road game, and despite a bye, my heart (which has no ties to Mizzou) says they rally, while my head says don't do it.
Missouri vs Texas A&M Expert Pick: Missouri (+7) at BetMGM
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Missouri vs Texas A&M Predictions for Week 11
Missouri's two losses are by seven and three points, at Vanderbilt and vs Alabama. In SEC play, Pribula had a 4:6 TD:INT ratio while topping 240 yards twice in four games; is Zollers that much of a downgrade? The only way I can answer yes is the mobility, as he rushed for 60+ twice, and I've already noted my concerns on Zollers seeing meaningful work with his legs.
But I have concerns with Marcel Reed for the Aggies as a passer. He completed 12 passes at LSU, completed 45.9 percent at Notre Dame, and completed 15 passes against Auburn and 16 against Florida. Sure, he ran with success, and that may end up being the difference, but this is a legit defense he's facing, and he hasn't proven he can win games with his arm. I'm banking on continued parity, another lower-scoring, tight game that Missouri can absolutely win.
TEXAS A&M 24-20.
Missouri vs Texas A&M Player Props for Saturday, November 8
Weekly reminder, I don't do player props as they are only offered in my state on the gaming sites where parlays are required; I can't bet them singularly, so my angle comes with a different mindset. And I don't enjoy offering ideas that I can't or won't actually put my money where my mouth is; that's not fair to the reader. However, I think this is a game where you can have fun going against the grain and potentially strike it big.
Marcel Reed over 35.5 rushing yards (Prize Picks)
Anti against the grain, he's done this in six of eight, and the number is 3+ yards higher elsewhere.
Ahmad Hardy under 0.5 touchdowns
Ahmad Hardy under 89.5 rushing yards
Simply have to pick your path and/or winner. Hardy has scored in six of eight; the two games he didn't score, Missouri lost. He absolutely has to be the focal point with a green quarterback, but do we see a scenario where he runs 30+ for 120+, scores, and Missouri still loses? He's also labored of late with 207 yards and 3.7 ypc in his last three.
If you're somewhere with singular player prop options, take a peek at some of Missouri's secondary receiving options that may have more chemistry with Zollers. Or maybe just a TD prop on TE Brett Norfleet.
