College Football Picks: LSU vs Vanderbilt Best Bets
It's Week 8, and we have a huge game in the SEC. We have 10 teams from the Southeastern Conference ranked inside The Associated Press' Top 25 rankings, and prior to the season, not many people would have thought the Vanderbilt Commodores would be one of the ranked teams in mid-October.
The No. 17 Commodores (5-1, 1-1 SEC) host the No. 10 LSU Tigers (5-1, 2-1) at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee, with a kickoff time of noon ET. The game can be viewed or streamed on ABC. This game likely has playoff implications, too, as two losses aren't necessarily the death knell, but it won't be helpful, either.
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LSU vs Vanderbilt Betting Odds for Week 8
Spread: LSU +2.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Vanderbilt -1.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Over 47.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 48.5 (BetMGM)
Moneyline: LSU +110 (ESPN Bet); Vanderbilt -120 (BetMGM)
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LSU vs Vanderbilt Betting Picks for Week 8
Back in 1994, I was in Nashville for the first time ever, staying right near Vanderbilt University. My father and I took a walk to the football stadium, and the gate was surprisingly unlocked. We ended up walking onto the field, which consisted of extremely hard astroturf. Gerry DiNardo was the coach that season, and the Commodores ended up 5-6 that season, making a late run, before falling short of bowl eligibility.
This season, Vandy needs just one more victory to qualify for a bowl game, which used to be a high bar for the 'Dores. However, after a red-hot start, including road wins at Virginia Tech and at South Carolina, expectations have been bumped up. Vanderbilt was cooled off 30-14 at Alabama last time out on Oct. 4, but that game wasn't nearly as lopsided as the score might indicate.
QB Diego Pavia and the Commodores were tied 14-14 at halftime, and Vandy led just 20-14 after three quarters. However, Pavia had an interception and a lost fumble in crucial moments in the red zone, and that helped change the, pun totally intended, tide.
Alabama did have 486 total yards, to just 333 for Vanderbilt, who topped the Crimson Tide last season in Nashville to send shockwaves around the SEC, and the country. However, Bama outgained Vandy at a 340-to-198 clip through the air, on a rare day, Pavia had miscues. Since transferring in from New Mexico State, changing Vanderbilt from doormat to contender, he has made very few mistakes.
Pavia has completed 71.4 percent of his pass attempts for 1,409 yards, 14 touchdowns and four interceptions, and he has been sacked just four times, including the Alabama game. He also leads the team with 352 rushing yards, with 5.9 yards per carry (YPC) and two scores. RB Sedrick Alexander is right on his heels with 319 yards and 6.4 YPC with a team-high five rushing TDs, while RB Makhilyn Young has racked up 211 yards on just 21 totes, or 10.0 YPC, with four touchdowns, including a 62-yard run against Virginia Tech.
LSU won its first four games this season, including a 17-10 win at Clemson on Aug. 30, and a 20-10 victory against Florida on Sept. 13. The Tigers have allowed 10 or fewer points in five of six games. The lone exception was a 24-19 loss against Ole Miss in Oxford on Sept. 27 as a 2.5-point underdog, as the Under (58) cashed. It bounced back with a 20-10 win over South Carolina last Saturday as a 7.5-point favorite. On the road, LSU is 1-1 with 18.0 PPG scored, and 17.0 PPG allowed. The Under is 5-1 in six games for LSU, including 5-0 in five matchups against FBS opponents.
Vanderbilt won and covered the first four games, but they've failed to cover the past two outings. The Under is 3-3 through six games, with the Over cashing in both games at home. Of course, this is Vandy's first SEC opponent at FirstBank Stadium, after trucking Georgia State and Utah State in non-conference play, averaging 62.5 PPG, while allowing 28.0 PPG.
While Vandy pulled the 40-35 upset over Alabama last season, it is 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS in three SEC games at home since. And, Vandy is just 3-5 SU/4-4 ATS inside the conference since that huge upset. In other words, Vandy is still rather mediocre, and we haven't seen it pick up a signature win since. Even the win over South Carolina was helped out by QB LaNorris Sellers checking out of that game in the first half due to an injury.
Let's roll with LSU with a little bit of points, as the Tigers get it done on the road.
LSU vs Vanderbilt Expert Pick: LSU +2.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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LSU vs Vanderbilt Predictions for Week 8
While the side is pretty clear, the total isn't as clear-cut.
Vanderbilt's offense is good for 467.5 total yards (20th in the nation), 258.8 passing yards (48th) and 208.7 rushing yards (23rd) per game, while rolling up 43.2 PPG (7th). However, those numbers are a bit skewed because of the non-conference victories. Defensively, Vandy has allowed just 90.8 rushing yards (16th) per game, and 19.3 PPG (35th).
LSU isn't nearly as strong offensively, going for 373.5 total yards (78th), 258.5 passing yards (49th) and just 115.0 rushing yards (114th), while posting 25.8 PPG (87th). Defensively, LSU has been stout, however, conceding just 297.0 total yards (21st), 194.5 passing yards (42nd), 102.5 rushing yards (21st) and only 11.8 PPG (5th).
The defense of the Tigers should dictate the pace of this game, and it isn't going to exactly march the ball up and down the field, either. QB Garrett Nussmeier has completed 66.2 percent, 1,413 yards, nine touchdowns and five interceptions, while adding a rushing score. The star on the ground is RB Caden Durham, who has 283 yards and two rushing scores.
Nussmeier could have an added obstacle, as leading WR Aaron Anderson (23-305-0) is a question mark to play due to hip and knee injuries. WR Barion Brown, a Nashville native, by the way, might be asked to do more.
Score Prediction: LSU 24, Vanderbilt 20
LSU vs Vanderbilt Player Prop Picks for Saturday, October 18
QB Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt - Over 204.5 Passing Yards (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Looking at player props, Pavia and the Commodores could be playing from behind. He threw for just 198 yards against the Crimson Tide, and he faces a tough LSU defense, which is strong against the pass. However, it is even better against the run, so look for his legs to be taken away, as the Tigers force him to do more with his arm.
WR Junior Sherrill, Vanderbilt - Over 39.5 Yards (FanDuel Sportsbook)
While senior WR Eli Stowers has been a solid downfield threat for Pavia, posting at least three receptions in each of his six games, while averaging 12.9 yards per reception, he managed just three catches for a season-low 22 yards at Alabama.
Lately, Sherrill, another Nashville native, has picked up the pace, jelling nicely with Pavia. He has six receptions in each of the past two games, totaling 140 receiving yards. Sherrill has been eating into Stowers' target share, and he is the better bet with a much more achievable yardage number.
