College Football Picks: Iowa vs Oregon Best Bets
The No. 9 Oregon Ducks (7-1) will travel to Iowa City and face the No. 20 Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2) in a matchup that has significant playoff ramifications for both teams. Ohio State and Indiana appear to have the inside track to the Big Ten title game, but both teams could be in the running for an at-large berth if they run the table.
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Iowa vs Oregon Betting Odds for Week 11
Spread: Oregon -6.5 (BetMGM), Iowa +6.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Over 41.5 (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook), Under 42.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Oregon -225 (ESPN Bet), Iowa +205 (Caesars Sportsbook)
With more money heading Oregon's way, the spread has increased from a low of 5.5 over the past couple of days. The total has experienced a two-point differential this week, but is currently trending downward, with many taking the traditional route with Iowa and the Under. The gap in the Moneyline has gotten wider and wider, indicating a strong preference for Oregon to win outright.
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Iowa vs Oregon Betting Picks for Week 11
The playing styles of these two teams couldn't be more different. Oregon's high-powered and balanced offense ranks seventh in the nation with an average of 38.7 points per game. Oregon's defense is also strong, limiting opponents to an average of 13.6 points per game. Iowa is similarly strong defensively, and will be Oregon's toughest test since falling to Indiana. The Hawkeyes' biggest weakness is on offense, which ranks a paltry 119th with an average of 312.1 yards per game.
The strength of schedule is worth considering when examining these metrics, especially for the Ducks, who have had a relatively easy road aside from the loss to Indiana. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes lost to Iowa State and Indiana by a total of eight points, and absolutely destroyed a Wisconsin team that Oregon struggled against last week. As a result, the Ducks were downgraded by the CFP committee. This demotion is likely the worst possible outcome for Iowa, as Dan Lanning will have his team primed and ready to make a big statement on the road.
This contest is one of those strength versus strength contests, where the defenses will create an ugly matchup won in the trenches. While the Ducks have an attack that features equally strong results on the ground and through the air, Iowa lives and dies via its ground game.
We should probably toss aside other Oregon metrics and instead focus on the Indiana game , which was Oregon's only ranked opponent. Although the team lost 30-20, the defense limited the Indiana run game to 111 yards, which marked the second-worst rushing performance by the Hoosiers this season. Interestingly, who was the team that did better than Oregon? The Iowa Hawkeyes.
To sum it up, this game has all the hallmarks of a low-scoring game, with one offense ultimately prevailing. The winning offense will likely be the unit that can move the ball in the air, which gives Oregon a clear advantage. While the Under is a compelling bet, I think Oregon has all the necessary offensive skills to win by a touchdown. The "Oregon hasn't played anyone" remark will be heard less frequently after this week.
Iowa vs Oregon Expert Pick: Oregon -6.5 (BetMGM)
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Iowa vs Oregon Predictions for Week 11
The quarterback duel between Dante Moore and Mark Gronowski will be interesting to watch. Both players have dual-threat capability, but Gronowski has acted as more of a game manager, totaling only 946 yards, four touchdowns and four interceptions this season. Moore's total is exponentially higher with 1,772 yards, 19 touchdowns and four interceptions.
As one might assume, there are many more designed run plays for Gronowski than there are for Moore, so the key to Iowa's success is an ability to limit Oregon's talented crew of receivers while also achieving breakaway success with Gronowski's legs on offense.
Oregon will also be tasked with stopping Kamari Moulton, who will be utilized early and often out of the backfield. Oregon's running backs will be able to stay fresh, as the rotation of Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill will guarantee rested legs in every possession. The Ducks need at least one of the backs to have success, as Moore depends heavily on a read zone approach that aims to trick linebackers into buying into the run.
It's a challenge for both teams, but if Iowa's defensive front can take care of the run game without any help, Moore might be in for a long day. Gronowski will be in even more trouble if the Ducks stop the run and force him to win the game through the air.
The talent edge clearly goes to Oregon when it comes to quality pass support, as Malik Benson, Gary Bryant and Dakorien Moore represent one of the best receiving trios in the country. After three quarters of back and forth, a gassed Iowa defense will allow one of these receivers to break away and score, and momentum will skew Oregon's way as they possibly score one more time in the final 10 minutes.
Oregon 30, Iowa 20
Iowa vs Oregon Player Props for Saturday, November 8
Kamari Moulton, Iowa OVER 57.5 Rushing Yards (PrizePicks)
I think Moulton will be able to have some success against the Ducks. Although I don't think he'll go much higher than this total. The snap count for Oregon's running backs makes an Oregon call for rushing yards a more difficult proposition.
Mark Gronowski, Iowa UNDER 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (PrizePicks)
Mark Gronowski, Iowa OVER 0.5 Interceptions (PrizePicks)
Gronowski has gone without a passing touchdown in five games this season, and I doubt Oregon will allow him to throw one this week. I also like the call for at least one interception for Gronowski, and the pick could occur as he's trying to break the other prop in the red zone.
