College Football Picks: Championship Week Odds, Picks, Predictions and Best Bets

Written by

Chris Bennett

Jeff Edgerton

Greg Vara

Published on December 6, 2024

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Chris' Picks

Finally! Some solid winners. I should have known better about the Kentucky line being so obviously wrong I shouldn't take it, but we started and finished the week great, even if it was to the detriment of my Hurricanes. Unfortunately, it comes at the point in the season where our slate's become incredibly compact, not giving us a ton of options. It's further shortened when I have an assigned game to spotlight before kickoff, giving me eight spreads and eight totals to sort through. While the thought process will remain the same, to get to five weekly plays, some may be forced more than usual.

Army (+5.5) vs. Tulane (Friday)

Keep an eye on this, as it's been all over the place. I saw it jump as high as (+6.5) 24 hours prior, and it still sits at +5.5 at FanDuel. Is something up that's not being reported? There's no chance I'm going against Army here. They're hosting a conference championship on campus at West Point. It's going to be cold and windy, thus a ground-dominated offense for both, which they both prefer. Only Notre Dame has found success against Army rushing the ball, and I'm not putting a ton of stock in Tulane's defensive performance against Navy's option. They aren't the same, and Navy was injured and using a handful of backups. If we're giving three points to the home team, do we really think Tulane is more than a touchdown better than Army? I'm obviously hoping not. Bryson Daily makes some magic.

Arizona State (-1.5) vs. Iowa State

The Cyclones know what's coming: a heavy dose of Cam Skattebo, who has at least 17 carries in every game since Week 1 and 20+ in all but three. Iowa State is allowing 5.0 ypc, and in three games where they knew it was coming (UCF, Kansas, Iowa), they allowed at least 204 yards and nine total touchdowns. Iowa State boasts the better passing attack, but the Sun Devils have a 14:14 TD:INT ratio on the year, intercepting a pass in seven straight where that ratio has risen to 3:11. Rocco Becht makes at least one mistake to propel ASU into the playoff.

Ohio (Moneyline) vs. Miami-OH

This opened at (+2.5) but is down to (+1.5), so why fool with the points (unless it trends the other way between Wednesday and kickoff). The MAC is notoriously random and/or inconsistent, so don't go overboard. I'm aware they played earlier, a 30-20 Miami victory, but since then, the Bobcats have allowed 10.8 ppg across the last five. They're seventh in the country against the run, allowing 3.1 ypc, and I'll bank on them cleaning up the issues that allowed Miami to go for 150 against them. Miami's defense is strong, but I trust the Bobcats to score with slightly more consistency.

Texas (-2.5) vs. Georgia

I was on the Bulldogs when these two met in the regular season, but that was because they were desperate. That doesn't exist here, and I look for Texas to be the more motivated side to avenge that beating. Neither offense inspires confidence, but Georgia's defense hasn't been its dominant self, allowing at least 17 in five straight since beating the Longhorns and an average of 25.6. Beating teams twice in a season is tough; this is my second pick on a team that lost the first meeting. Surely they avenge it, right? Famous last words.

Under 55.5 Clemson Clemson vs. SMU SMU

Clemson's last four games (against FBS opponents) have gone under this number; SMU's last two have. The Mustangs have shown more explosion of offense, but this is another cold night game, albeit with minimal wind. The Tigers' path to victory is not in a shootout. Clemson has the advantage up front, and a heavy dose of Phil Mafah will wear down the Mustangs in the second half, keeping the clock moving. Slight lean towards Clemson (+2.5), so a teaser/SGP with alt lines is also appealing. Clemson (+7.5)/under 62.5 is currently (-104) at FanDuel.

Last week: 4-1; Season 34-34-2

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Greg's Picks

The streak ends at six. I was hoping to follow up the perfect week with another winning week, but I couldn't quite pull it off. Still, 7-3 over the past two weeks is just fine with me. A quick recap before we head into championship weekend.

A split to start the week with Colorado and the over. I had a feeling that the game would break one of two ways, and I was correct that Colorado would get theirs, but OSU has been a wildcard this season, and man, did the Cowboys fail to show up. The next game was painful as Vanderbilt jumped out to a 14-0 lead as an 11-point underdog but couldn't manage to keep Tennessee in check the rest of the way. After that, it was Kansas, and the Jayhawks finally came back down to Earth, resembling the team we saw early in the season. The final play was the over in the Miami-Syracuse game, and this one hit with plenty of room to spare.

A quick note before we get into the picks this week. We obviously have a small slate this week, so it was a bit of a stretch in at least one spot (SMU) to get to five games.

Over (57.5) UNLV vs. Boise State

I'm a little skittish about going over in a conference championship game because teams will often tighten up a bit when everything is on the line, but the fact of the matter is that neither of these teams can stop the pass. Now, both teams are better at running than passing, but both teams are capable of moving the ball through the air as well. Ashton Jeanty will take center stage, but I don't think he'll be the difference maker in this game as the Rebels are stout against the run, and they did a solid job against him the last time they played. Yes, Jeanty ran for 128 yards, but it took 33 carries to get there. Jeanty will do his thing, but the Broncos win this game through the air. Meanwhile, UNLV gets plenty of points to get this game over the total.

Arizona State (-1.5) vs. Iowa State

I'm going to start with something that might seem insignificant, but I think it plays a role here, and that's Iowa State's inability to win a big game under Matt Campbell. I think Campbell is a good coach, but it seems like the Cyclones have been on the precipice of moving to the next level on several occasions over the past decade,e and every time they lose the game that would take them there. Now, if we're looking at these two particular teams, then I also give the advantage to ASU. The Sun Devils have been on fire over the past month, and they have a huge advantage in one very important area – the run game. ASU's offense is built around the run game, and ISU's biggest weakness is stopping the run. With that said, my faith in Kenny Dillingham's decision-making is shaken after what he pulled against BYU two weeks ago, but hopefully, this doesn't come down to a single score at the end of the game.

Texas (-2.5) vs. Georgia

This was not an easy call on my part. There are reasons why each of these teams could win this game, but I think Texas has a slight edge. Georgia won the first matchup in Texas, but that gives the Longhorns a lot to work with in the way of adjustments. Another factor in that game was the readiness of the Bulldogs vs. the Longhorns. Georgia has become accustomed to playing in big games over the past decade and perhaps the Longhorns just weren't ready for the step up in class. That shouldn't be an issue this time. What worries me is that if you look closely at Texas' schedule, you won't find a really good win. With that said, their best win might have come this past week at Texas A&M, and at the same time, Georgia was stumbling all over itself against Georgia Tech. If Texas comes ready to play, I think the Longhorns can pull it off.

SMU (-2) vs. Clemson

I'm writing this the day after the CFP rankings came out, and before I get to this game, let me just say that not only does the ACC not deserve a second team in the playoff, but if SMU loses this game, they don't deserve a single team. Neither of the two teams in the championship game played Syracuse or Miami this season. How does that happen? Neither of these teams has passed a single challenge this season. Clemson has failed on three occasions, and SMU failed in its only "tough" game against BYU. It is what it is, however, and if we're looking at just this game, I think SMU has the edge. Clemson just isn't anything close to what it used to be, so if you think the Tigers will be better prepared for a big spot, I beg to differ. As mentioned earlier, I don't have a lot to go on here; it just feels like SMU is the better team with more confidence heading into this matchup.

Oregon (-3.5) vs. Penn State

Believe it or not, there is a realistic scenario where Penn State grabs the number one seed in the playoffs. If that happens, this might go down as the weakest college football season in decades. Oregon and perhaps Texas are the last hope to have a deserving champion. I can't imagine Penn State being considered the best team in the country, if only because of circumstances. I don't think the Nittany Lions are a bad team, but nothing about them screams "great." Oregon, however, has a chance to win the Big Ten and the National Championship, all the while going undefeated, and if the Ducks pull that off, we would be justified in using the label of "great". Okay, on to the game, on paper it's an even matchup, Penn State has the better defense, Oregon the better offense, but the Ducks look like the better team overall. There's that and then I go back to what I said about Matt Campbell earlier, the same holds true for James Franklin, every time the Nittany Lions get close to greatness, they lose. This is another chance to accomplish something huge, and again, I feel they will come up short.

Last Week: 2-3-0; Season 35-35-0

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Jeff's Picks

I was oh so close to 4-1, but BYU did some weird clock management at the end of the game and ruined the day for anyone who took BYU and 12.5. Losing by one half of a point wasn't pretty, but I did come through with a 3-2 record with successful bets for TCU, Notre Dame, and Texas. As of publishing, it looks like I have a lead over my counterparts, so as long as I don't whiff this final week, I'll have the Capper title sealed up for a second consecutive year and a winning week overall. Some of this week's bets are hard to take to the window, but fortune favors the brave.

Under 55.5 Clemson Clemson vs. SMU SMU AND Clemson +2.5

Momentum-wise, I like the magic of the last-gasp moment, the virtual home crowd in Charlotte, and Clemson's ACC championship record at this site, but I think the defense aspects of both squads make the under a more sensible bet. Clemson relied on turnovers to get field position against South Carolina last week, and the offense has faltered in big moments. On the other side, SMU got a very favorable draw in their first year and has yet to face a defense like Clemson. Granted, the Tigers have some question marks at cornerback, but I don't see any explosive plays happening here. I'll take the under and also risk taking Clemson and the points.

Arizona State -1.5 vs. Iowa State

A lot of money is flowing to the Cyclones because the Sun Devils will be without Jordyn Tyson, their blue-chip 1,000-yard receiver. However, one look at the roster should assuage those concerns. The Sun Devils have a lot of talented receivers who can step up, with redshirt freshman Derek Eusebio emerging as a deep threat. Also, this team can win games with Cam Skattebo and Sam Leavitt by themselves. There's no denying the potency of Iowa State, who are the only team in the country with two 1,000-yard receivers, but I have to go with the momentum and take Arizona State.

Under 44.5 Ohio Ohio vs. Miami Miami (OH)

Who are the two teams that have allowed the lowest amount of points in the FBS? You're looking at them. The two teams surrender an average of 13 points against opposing teams, so I think these defenses will shut each other down. It should be a battle in the trenches where neither team wil be able to bank any explosive plays which are usually Under killers. I would like this number to be a tad higher, but a total of 17-14 is a likely result.

Oregon (-3.5) vs. Penn State

Many predict that Oregon will be the giant who's killed this week. After all, they don't need a win to get into the playoff, although they'll lose a bye if they falter. One stat stands out for this game, however. James Franklin can't seem to win the big games. He is 1-11 when playing teams ranked in the Top 5. I don't think he'll improve this record. Penn State has some great rushers in Eric Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and Oregon's only run struggle came against Ashton Jeanty. Dillon Gabriel and his vast array of offensive weapons are on a different planet compared to Drew Allar and his options, and they'll need a monster run game to keep up. Penn State will keep this close, but not close enough.

Last week: 3-2-0

Season: 38-32-0 (54.2%)

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