This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
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Chris' Picks
Who the heck knows at this point? I knew WKU had major opt outs, but they lost Austin Reed days before kickoff, and Malachi Corley suddenly was reported to be playing one quarter. But we won, ha! These bowl games are complete crapshoots, and the best bets seem to be had right after they were announced when we could use common sense on opt-outs (Drake Maye) or wait until the day off to read rumors and react. This week's picks span games from December 23rd through the 29th, giving us plenty to choose from. That doesn't mean I have more confidence, so here goes nothing.
Troy (-7.5) vs. Duke
What will be a recurring theme in my picks starts here. Duke is very much in transition, losing their coach to Texas A&M, their quarterback to Notre Dame, and countless other players, including two running backs, to the portal. I'm not too worried about the absence of Riley Leonard, as he missed much of the second half of the year, and Grayson Loftis seems to have settled in to the position. But that doesn't mean they score much here. They feasted on bad defenses down the stretch, which Troy is anything but. The Trojans will be without leading tackler Jayden McDonald, but they seem pretty complete otherwise. They allowed 17.2 ppg on the year, a number that fell to 13.7 over their final 10 games. The total here gives us an implied final of 26-18.5, and I don't think Duke gets to that number. As such, Troy covers.
San Jose State (-9.5) vs. Coastal Carolina
This one should be as simple as possible, so I'm likely completely wrong. Coastal Carolina has (unofficially) lost 24 players to the transfer portal, including QB Grayson McCall, WR Jared Brown and RB CJ Beasley. If that really leaves them with 61 scholarship options, a number that can seemingly only decrease, how are they going to compete for four quarters? New opportunities for backups are certainly a motivator, but I question the sustainability. San Jose State looks to be a full strength on offense, highlighted by QB Chevan Cordeiro and RB Kairee Robinson. That's just too much firepower and balance for the Chanticleers to match.
Virginia Tech (-9.5) vs. Tulane
This would have been a far better bet earlier in the week before we got confirmation of Michael Pratt sitting out for the Green Wave, but I'm still taking the bait. Tulane isn't an offensive juggernaut with Pratt and is also without their coach, with Willie Fritz moving to Houston. But there was a lot to like for the Hokies prior to the changes at Tulane. The Hokies blasted rival Virginia to gain bowl eligibility and have clearly found their quarterback in Kyron Drones. And while the portal has been brutal to most, the biggest news out of Blacksburg is they've convinced a plethora of their surging team to return for next year. It's a fair amount of points for them to cover, especially against a Tulane defense that's stout against the run, where VT wants to attack. But it's one program pressing a full reset against one with momentum heading toward 2024, which they'll build on.
Miami (-1) vs. Rutgers
When we literally know nothing, why wouldn't I go full homer and back my Hurricanes? Miami will be without Tyler Van Dyke, something the fan base can debate the pros and cons of, and will turn to Jacurri Brown to see his first action of the year. He's a monster of a man with tremendous concerns over the accuracy of his throws. They'll be without two offensive lineman and both of their safeties. The OL is more of a concern, as while Kamren Kinchens and James Williams were ballhawks, they were also risk/reward gamblers. I've been shocked and impressed that this Miami team has brought it every night despite some bad losses. A win is important to this team. There's a low point total here of 40.5, which says it could come down to kicking. Rutgers' Jai Patel is decent but not experienced from a distance. Miami's Andres' Borregales has hit far more volume from a far greater distance.
North Carolina State (+2.5) vs. Kansas State
I'm assuming NCST will have Brennan Armstrong under center, and that's what I'm backing. It took him a while to find his footing for the Wolfpack, but he gives them a veteran presence under center that's looking to cap his career with a bang. I love Avery Johnson for Kansas State as a 2024 fantasy option, and this could be his coming out party. But the Wolfpack boast the better defense, and they'll key on him and at least keep this close at worst.
Last week: 2-1 (two pending as of submission); Season (37-36)
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Greg's Picks
28-0. Hopefully, that score doesn't tell the tale of my bowl season. For those unaware of what that means, I'll do a quick recap.
One of my picks this past week was Old Dominion -2.5 against Western Kentucky. Old Dominion was up 28-0 at one point this past Monday, and well, you probably know how that ended up. I can only hope that this isn't a sign of things to come, as a win in that spot would have made my record from this past week look a lot better.
With that said, there are plenty of bowl games left, so let's take a look at some solid options for this week.
Air Force (+2.5) vs. James Madison
A lot of how this game goes will depend on what happens to the questionable players prior to this matchup. James Madison has nearly its entire defense in the portal, but many of those guys are expected to play…but we all know how that goes. I'd be surprised if most of these guys are a go, and if not, that spells trouble for the Dukes against one of the best rushing attacks in the country. In addition, starting QB Jordan McCloud is in the portal, and although he stated he planned to play, that can change quickly. Air Force has no portal issues, but it is hoping to get back a couple of key players, including QB Zac Larrier. I like Air Force no matter who plays, but if the Falcons get their players back and JMU loses some to the portal, then this could get out of hand.
Eastern Michigan (+16.5) vs. South Alabama
This is a pick out of principal more than anything else. EMU might be the worst bowl team this season, but I'm not sure that means that South Alabama should be 16.5-point favorites. USA is the better team here; there's no doubting that, but the Jaguars were 6-6 in a weak conference, and we're talking about a lot of points here. Both teams have injury concerns, so that could sway the balance as well. The MAC doesn't get much respect this time of year, and sometimes you see these teams playing with a chip on their shoulder, like Ohio earlier this month. I'm expecting the Eagles to come out with some fire after being disrespected by everyone this bowl season, and hopefully, they can keep this game close.
Under (41.5) Utah vs Northwestern
Similar to the UCLA-Boise State game last week, there are a lot of players missing on the offensive side of the ball in this one. Now, that one didn't quite work out, but the issue for the under in that game was that those teams had plenty of firepower in reserve, which isn't the case in this game. Utah is absolutely decimated at this point with injuries and transfers, and while I think the Utes will win this game on the ground, I doubt they can score many points in this spot. Northwestern has struggled to move the ball all season and that's when they were at 100%, which the 'Cats won't be in this game.
Virginia Tech (-9.5) vs. Tulane
It's too bad I couldn't have locked in the line two weeks ago when it was at VT -4.5. Since then, the news has been all bad for Tulane. There wasn't much to get excited about even two weeks ago as Tulane lost its HC to Houston, but since then, we've learned that starting QB Michael Pratt will not play in this game. Tulane was already down a 1/3 of its starting defense because of transfers, now the Green Wave head into this game without its coach and starting QB. To make matters worse, the backup QB might be out also, which would be disastrous for the Green Wave. Virginia Tech has made it to this point fairly unscathed, as no major players have left the program since the end of the season. I like how the Hokies finished the season and even without the player movement from Tulane, I liked them to win this game.
Rutgers (+1.5) vs. Miami
I've leaned heavily on player movement this bowl season, and while there is one player missing from this game that will have a major impact (Miami starting QB Tyler Van Dyke), this pick is based more on the other key factor this time of year, and that's motivation. Perhaps if this game were in a different locale, Miami might be more interested, but this game is being played in the Northeast, which is Rutgers territory. Throw in a coach like Greg Schiano who is a master motivator and I think what we'll see is one team ready to play hard and the other completely disinterested.
Last Week: 1-4-0; Season 31-44-0
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Jeff's Picks
The first week of bowl games proved that you can't count on anything in the era of opt-outs and transfer portals. We are a bit hamstrung by throwing darts into the dark early, but hopefully, we can make an edit or two along the way as the lineups crystallize for some of the games later in the week.
OVER 52.5 Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State
The Aggies enter this game with about half of their original defense. Only four starters remain on that side of the ball, and when you have a player like Ollie Gordon staring at you from an intact Oklahoma State offensive line, it's not good news. There's currently no report on Gordon's status right now, but I don't think it matters much. The Cowboys are very deep at the position, and starting QB Alex Bowman will play, guaranteeing some solidity for OKU's offense. On the other side, QB Max Johnson has opted out, leaving Jaylen Henderson to run the show, and I think this is pretty much a wash, considering his decent play toward the end of the season. Oklahoma State's defense is pretty mediocre in all aspects, and I think an intact Aggie team would have won this game easily. The limitations of both defenses should allow for a high-scoring affair, so I'll take a reasonable over of 52.5.
Louisville -7 vs. USC
Are the Trojans sitting their entire team? It sure looks like it. Caleb Williams will be gone, but so will almost all of his wide receivers, their starting running back, and some key defensive players. The weaknesses of a complete USC defense are well-documented, but they are now faced with the task of compensating with an offense that has lost crucial parts of its engine. Louisville will also be without their starting running back and wide receiver, but they have solid replacements at those positions, and all reports suggest that Jack Plummer will play. I've seen enough from MIller Moss to know that he can manage the offense, but I wouldn't expect much beyond that.
Arizona -2.5 vs. Oklahoma
Dillon Gabriel and a host of other players on both sides of the ball are out for the Sooners. The Wildcats are barely affected, with Jacob Cowing potentially the only glaring absence for Noah Fifita, who's been electric during Arizona's resurgence. He will also have Tetairoa McMillan at his disposal, who is one of the most prolific receivers in the country. Jackson Arnold played well when Gabriel was out, but with Marcus Major and Tavee Walker sitting, it will be difficult to establish any sort of a passing game. To make matters worse, their OC left for a head coaching job, so someone else will be calling the plays for Oklahoma. There are just too many factors that play in Arizona's favor here.
West Virginia -6.5 vs. North Carolina AND UNDER 54
My final two bets will come from this game. Both teams are suffering from the portal/opt-out bug, and there will be many other players sitting due to injury. The glaring absence here will be UNC's Drake Maye, and while coach Mack Brown has faith in Connor Harrell, the key absences throughout the lineup make for an uphill battle. One advantage for Harrell is a healthy offensive line, but the Mountaineers only miss Mike Lockhart up front and are intact otherwise. The Mountaineers have most of their key pieces on offense intact, and while the team isn't an offensive juggernaut, they're capable of long, plodding drives behind an apt running game. I think UNC's absences are too much to overcome, and they'll also struggle to score. I would be surprised if the game goes over 50.
At time of publishing
Last Week: 2-3
Season: 36-37-1
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