College Cappers: Picking Winners Week 3

Chris' Picks

Ice cold. There's no other way to slice it. If it weren't for forcing two picks in Week 0 that came through, I'd be looking even worse. It's partly been an issue of highlighting the wrong games, as my random "three for the road" last week all hit.  Eventually, I'll make the right decisions, so play or fade at your own risk.

Louisville (-10) vs. Western Kentucky

I don't want to get in to picking games based on effort, but I love the way Louisville has competed under new head coach Scott Satterfield. They Cardinals have established a clear offensive identity, ranking 11th nationally in rushing, averaging 285.5 yards per game (11th) and 6.72 yards per carry thanks to the emergence of freshman home-run hitter Javian Hawkins. It's taken the pressure off of QB Jawon Pass, and the Cards are 2-0 ATS to date, coming off of their first win since September 15, 2018; a 20-17 victory over WKU. The Hilltoppers rebounded last week against FIU after falling to Central Arkansas, but they aren't as good as they were a year ago, and Louisville is better. Close early, but the 'Ville pulls away.

Duke (-6.5) at Middle Tennessee State

I liked this a lot more at opening, where the Blue Devils were only laying 3.5, which is close to a pick 'em. As long as it stays under a touchdown, I'll remain at least somewhat confident, however. MTSU is in a complete rebuild, especially offensively with a committee backfield and two-game starter Asher O'Hara under center. Its defense ranks 86th against the pass and 121st against the run, allowing 26 points and 4.9 YPC to Tennessee State last week. Duke hasn't been terrific defensively, though it's skewed by Week 1's loss to Alabama. Perhaps the over at 50.5 looks like the better option, as I think Duke can get close to that by themselves. And if they do, they'll only need a few stops to cover.

Colorado State (+10) at Arkansas

Another game that was more enticing at its +13.5 opening; if this moves below 10 it gets scary. Colorado State's defense has been woeful, but I don't think Arkansas has the offense to take advantage of those deficiencies. CSU QB Collin Hill has the Rams' offense churning (385.5 passing yards per game), and its likely to add Auburn transfer Nate Craig-Myers to the receiving corps this week. The Razorbacks, meanwhile, struggled against Portland State before not putting up much of a fight against Ole Miss, which was previously contained by a questionable Memphis defense. Arkansas lost by seven at Colorado State last year, and with a better CSU offense, it's very hard to see Arky being 17 points better than 2018.

Penn State (-17) vs. Pittsburgh

Since this rivalry was rekindled three years ago, Pitt won the first meeting by three and has lost the last two by a combined 64 points. The Panthers let me down in Week 1 against Virginia, and I'm not a big believer in quarterback Kenny Pickett. Maybe the first two games were all a ruse from new OC Mark Whipple, but Pickett has thrown 78 times through two weeks after attempting 30-plus passes all last season. They have forced the ball downfield more, which is a concern in keeping this close. But they haven't figured out their rushing attack, and I expect Penn State to jump out early, and then force Pickett into a few mistakes as it wins going away.

Charlotte (-19.5) vs. Massachusetts

I tried hard to avoid this, but I can't get past how awful UMass is, losing by 27 to Rutgers and 25 to FCS Southern Illinois. You have to expect improvement, but it's also possible (probable) the Minutemen are this year's version of UConn, and we can pick on them weekly. They rank 125th against the run and 116th against the pass. The Minutemen average only 3.8 YPC, making it difficult to challenge Charlotte's porous run defense (119th). The 49ers aren't good enough to cover this number often, but they put up great fight at Appalachian State last week, and with offensive balance have scored 90 points the last two weeks. They'll get at least that average  and win comfortably.

Trap games that appear too obvious for me include North Carolina State (-6.5) at West Virginia, Oklahoma (-23) at UCLA and Virginia (-7) vs. Florida State. I also still have no clue what to make of Maryland, so I won't opine on the Terps (-7) at Temple.

Last week: 1-4; This Season: 5-7

GREG'S PICKS

After two weeks of spinning my wheels, I finally got some traction last week with a solid 3-1-1 finish. The week was so good, that I was even a little disturbed that I pushed on my final game instead of winning it. Although Minnesota seemingly outplayed Fresno State the entire game, the Bulldogs were one play away from winning in regulation and they were one outstanding defensive play from Minnesota away from winning in OT. That was the push. The wins weren't blowouts by any means, with the exception of Missouri, but it doesn't matter how you win, just that you win. The lone loss was a blowout as Cincinnati couldn't hang with Ohio State.  

Indiana (+16.5) vs. Ohio State

Every once in a while, you spot a line that just looks off and there's a good reason for that — it's called a trap. The Buckeyes have done nothing but impress for most of their first two games and they historically handle Indiana with relative ease, yet Vegas installed them as a 13.5-point favorite. 13.5 points? They had to know that money would come in on OSU with a spread like that, and come in it has. Indiana isn't quite the road kill that it used to be, and the Hoosiers have just enough talent to be pesky from time to time. I'm not sure how, but Indiana will keep this game close just long enough to stay within the number.           

North Carolina State (-6.5) at West Virginia 

I was all over Missouri last week because I expected a bounce-back from the Tigers as well as a bad performance from the Mountaineers, and I got both. I expected this line to be more than a TD, but I think there's still a misconception about West Virginia. Whatever the case, I'll keep fading the Mountaineers until they show signs of life. N.C. State had to replace a lot of talent, but through two games, all signs are positive. The Wolfpack have not played anyone of significance yet, but that's exactly what they needed to break in their new talent.       

Over (61) UCF vs Stanford 

The thought of taking the over in a Stanford game just two weeks ago would have been outrageous, but after seeing how USC sliced up the Cardinal defense, it makes me wonder how it plans to stop the powerful UCF offense. In addition to what looks to be a substandard defense, the offense will get QB K.J. Costello back and should be able to again move the ball. UCF picked up right where it left off last season, scoring in bunches, and there's no reason to think that will change this week. My only concern is the UCF defense might be better than its been in year's past, but the Knights have yet to play anyone, so that's just pure speculation.

Colorado State (+10) at Arkansas

The Rams were expected to be terrible this season, and while we have nearly a full season ahead of us, through two games, they haven't looked all that bad. They gave Colorado all it could handle for more than three quarters and picked up a win last week against Western Illinois. Arkansas was also expected to be terrible this season, and the Hogs have done nothing to move me off that opinion. The Razorbacks lost by double-digits to Ole Miss last week and managed only a seven-point victory over Portland State in their first game. Essentially, Arkansas should not be favored by double-digits against any FBS team.  

Over (58) Florida State at Virginia 

Perhaps once the Seminoles get into conference play, things will change, but through two games their offense has been great and their defense has been terrible. Virginia, on the other hand, has been solid on both offense and defense. The Cavaliers  likely will provide the Seminole offense with its toughest test to date, but the 'Noles should still manage at least a few scores. Meanwhile, this could get ugly for the Seminole defense as it will be its first venture outside of Florida.

Last Week: 3-1-1, Season: 6-4-1