College Capper: Best Bets Week 15

Chris' Picks

Told you so! I came home last Wednesday evening to pen this column in a foul mood, had a house full of my wife's friends doing some kinda nail party and said forget it, we're going 5-0. And 5-0 we went! Apparently I need to write in fury more frequently. Not loving this week's slate spreads, and who knows what games actually kick off by Saturday. But there are a handful of games I'm looking forward to watching. So, here are five spreads, take em or leave em, and enjoy one of the last few weekends of the year!

Florida State (-4.5) vs. Duke

I'm a little surprised this game is still on, as I loosely didn't expect FSU to compete again this year. But watching Duke last week, just because you're on the field doesn't mean you're competing. They've allowed 160 points over the past three games, turning the ball over 12 times in that span. FSU coughs it up frequently too, and who knows how they'll respond to playing for the first time in a month. But I can't imagine this program has fallen so far they can't beat this Duke team by a touchdown. Duke can't stop the run, and the 'Noles have found success there. I'm expecting FSU to pound the ball, play loose defensively and create turnovers.

Miami of Ohio (-24) at Bowling Green

This is all about the Falcons. In losing last week to Akron 31-3, they've firmly cemented themselves as the worst team in the country. They've been outscored 225-57 in their five defeats with their closest loss being 25 to a top Buffalo squad that clearly didn't bring their full attention. They are last in the country in run defense (310.2 ypg, 6.3 ypc) and their pass defense stats are skewed because team's don't have to throw. The RedHawks are nothing special, and they're actually bad at running the ball but have scored 38 points in their two wins, and beat lowly Akron 38-7. I think I'll feel okay here at anything (-28) and under.

Over (67.5) LSU at Florida

Going out of my comfort zone and back to a total here, and I think I could argue the UF (-23) angle rather convincingly. But high-scoring kind of feels safer. LSU has four times given up 44+, and none of their games under that total came against offensive juggernauts. Florida leads the nation in passing offense, leading to a 42.0 ppg average, a number they haven't hit in their last three games. I expect them to throw at will in this spot and push Kyle Trask's Heisman campaign. But the Gator defense has been vulnerable at times, and I'm not buying the 46 total points they've allowed in their last three, as it came against Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Tennessee. LSU looks to be moving to Max Johnson under center, and while they've suffered plenty of opt outs at skill positions, there's still enough talent to muster 20ish points. 

Virginia (+3) at Virginia Tech

VT had won 15 straight in this rivalry and 19 of 20 prior to last season, but these programs appear to be heading in opposite directions. The Hokies have lost four straight, and last week against Clemson, they saw starting quarterback Hendon Hooker benched because he was cold? That's a new one to me, especially as someone who's family, friends and wife all went to Virginia Tech. There are whispers of this being HC Justin Fuente's last game, and it's hard to see the team rallying around that. Meanwhile, Virginia has won four straight, scoring at least 31 in each and topping 40 in three. It's largely smoke and mirrors, but the team is clearly improving and are absolutely schemed up by HC Bronco Mendenhall. And we're getting points? Maybe this feels too good, but I'll take it.

Army (-7) vs. Navy

Both sides know what's coming, but Army does it better, and stops it better. Navy's still competing, but they've scored just 13 points in their last two games, the third and fourth time they've been held to single-digits. Conveniently, Army has held four opponents to single-digits, and I'm thinking that becomes five by Saturday evening. The Black Nights are third in rushing offense (296.7 ypg) while Navy's option attack is 46th (185.3 ypg). Army is 23rd against the run (119.0 ypg) while Navy checks in 109th (212.6 ypg). They'll get their attack started early, and play keep away late.

Last week: 5-0, Season 33-30-2

GREG'S PICKS

Okay, this is starting to get a little annoying/ridiculous. What started as one losing week to end an eight-week stretch of winners has suddenly turned into a streak in of itself, only this time, it's the kind that on one wants. On the bright side, I've managed to avoid a complete collapse, but a losing week is a losing week and it's time for this to end.

Last week was another 2-3 showing, and I can't claim any bad breaks on the losing side, nor lucky breaks on the winning side. The winners came easy with Ohio State, which separated from MSU early and never looked back and the under the Wisconsin game. That game didn't pan out quite like I thought as I expected the Badgers to move the ball, but 20 combined points made for a comfortable win on the under. The losses were a mixed bag. There was Texas Tech, which never was in sniffing distance of a cover and Notre Dame, which started extremely slowly, only to go up 21 at the break. It just wasn't the 'Irish's day however as they were sloppy from the get go. The last loss was Rutgers, which was behind all day, but did have a chance at the back door cover at the end. Obviously it didn't happen.   

Missouri (+13.5) vs Georgia

This past week was a perfect storm for the Bulldogs to cover. They were coming off a less than inspired win against a terrible Mississippi State team and yet they were still ranked much higher than most thought they should be in the CFP rankings. It had all the makings of an "us against the world" kind of game. To their credit, they cruised past South Carolina this past Saturday. South Carolina. Yeah, they beat up on the bottom tier of the SEC. Missouri is nowhere near the bottom tier and although Florida dispatched the Tigers with ease, Georgia is no Florida. Expect Georgia to let up in this spot, just enough to get a major scare on Saturday.         

Over (59) Minnesota at Nebraska

I gave the 'Huskers some grief a couple weeks ago when they laid a gigantic egg against Illinois, but I have to give them credit two weeks later as they've played above expectations in two consecutive weeks. I was tempted to jump on board this week, but three weeks in a row above expectations is lot to ask of a non-elite team. With that in mind, I'm looking at the over here as Minnesota has been unable to stop any offense this season and Nebraska is more than capable of putting up a handful of scores. On the other wise, only Iowa has slowed the Gopher offense and while Nebraska looks improve, I don't think it has the tools to slow the Gopher offense completely.            

Iowa (+1) vs Wisconsin 
I realize that Indiana is pretty darn good this year, but it's hard to walk away from the Badgers game this past week with much confidence. A large part of the problem this past Saturday was Wisconsin being down to its 3rd-string center, but that's likely to be the case again this week. I know they've had a couple tough matchups the past couple weeks, but let's step back here and try to remember why we were so high on the Badgers in the first place. They throttled Illinois and Michigan. That's it. The dregs of the Big 10. In the two games against real teams, they've scored 13 points!

Over (67.5) Florida vs LSU
After how last week's game against Alabama started, I expected about 100 in the LSU game, but the 'Tide let off the gas in the 2nd half and only 72 points were scored in total. Don't let that fool you though as if LSU was able to keep up for even a quarter, there would have been many more points scored. Now, Florida is not as potent as Alabama on offense, but its close. The past few weeks the Gators have been stuck in some lower scoring affairs, but that's because of the competition. The Gators have played three of the worst offenses in the SEC the past three weeks, which almost makes you forget about how leaky their defense was early in the season. Almost. LSU is good enough on offense to contribute this week and push this game over the total.          

Over (62.5) USC at UCLA

This should be fun. For those that didn't realize, USC played this past Sunday night. The Trojans were unstoppable on offense in the first half on their way to 35 points. They let off the gas in the 2nd half however, so much so that the game went under the total. They won't have that luxury this week as UCLA will be able to keep pace with them. UCLA looks to be better on defense this year, but the last time the Bruins saw an offense like this, they gave up 35 points to Oregon. USC is also decent on defense, but this game is all about the offenses as this should be a back and forth affair.           
Last Week: 2-3-0, Season: 34-31-0