College Capper: Best Bets Week 14

Chris' Picks

No intro needed for me at this point. I'm tired of cancellations that I don't believe are just, and I'm tired of guessing who's going to play as coaching staffs hide secrets. Very thankful we've had a season, but just freaking play! I'm angry and going 5-0 this week, largely with humongous road favorites, which seems to be my trend and my downfall. Lets get it!

Clemson (-22) at Virginia Tech

The Tigers, to me, looked some kind of angry last week against Pitt, playing with purpose they hadn't shown to date in their first action since falling at Notre Dame. I don't see how the Hokies slow down Clemson's attack; they rank 89th against the run (4.8 YPC, 20 TDs) and 107th against the pass (7.7 YPA). I've been anti-Justin Fuente since his second season, as his offense is just unimaginative. Maybe the Hokies rally around him given hot seat rumors, but I just don't see how they compete here.

Oregon State (+11) at Utah 

Utah is 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS, while OSU is 2-2 SU yet 3-1 ATS. Maybe I'm falling into a trap here, but I'm not sure what the Utes have done to be betted up from an initial seven-point spread to this two-possession number. The Beavers can score, with a season-low of 27 and 72 total in their last two, and this matchup has one common opponent in Washington, who beat OSU by six and Utah by three. Utah is probably due a W, and my brain doesn't think in a way to select underdogs, but with Utah posting only 38 points in two games, they'd need a stout defensive showing or an offensive explosion to cover this.

Alabama (-29.5) at LSU

What's more amazing, that this line is this high, or that I'm willing to take it at anything 31 or less? LSU's defense has been better since their bye, allegedly simplifying schemes. But 'Bama's offense is an absolute machine, with a season-low of 38 points, while three times going for 52+. Their seemingly vulnerable defense has allowed just 16 points in the last three games, and LSU has scored only 18 total in their last two losses. The Tigers can't run (3.2 YPC) and have no clue under center between TJ Finley and Max Johnson. And top wideout Terrace Marshall just opted out. There's no way the can keep up.

Miami (-15) at Duke

Loyal readers know my Miami homerism, which puts me too close here. And I have no idea what Miami will have suited up after their long layoff, especially on defense. And Duke has won two straight in this series. But Miami should feel snubbed given the ACC's decision to blatantly omit them from title game consideration. They've got their deep passing game going, and this is a terrific spot for their rushing attack to get going against Duke's porous run defense that allows 4.8 YPC, 200.1 YPG, and 22 touchdowns. They've also allowed 56 points in consecutive games, and this comes with a total of 60.5. Miami is going to be a very large contributor to that number.

San Jose State (-2) at Hawaii

All indications are that SJSU's last two games were canceled because of viral issues with opponents, not within the Spartans. They boast a former SEC quarterback in Nick Starkel and a defense that hasn't allowed more than 21 points to date. A hidden strength for this squad is they've allowed only 15 tackles for loss in four games. Hawaii struggles against the run, which will allow San Jose State to fall forward rather than backward, and get a few 1-on-1 plays deep in the passing game to earn a road win.

Last week: 1-2, Season 28-30-2

GREG'S PICKS

And just like that, I'm back on a streak again. This time however it's a losing streak, but never fear, this one is about to end this week. Before we get to the slate a quick recap of last week's action. Two wins on the week, both of which were extremely easy. The UCF over looked bad for about six minutes, then both teams took flight and the over was in the bag early in the 2nd-half. Clemson was also an easy cover from the jump. The losers were also blowouts. North Carolina and Notre Dame were on a great pace to hit the over after one quarter (14-14), but something happened after that and neither team got much going on offense in the 2nd half. Iowa struggled to get separation all day from Nebraska and Northwestern laid a huge egg and lost outright.  

Ohio State (-24) at Michigan State

Credit to the Spartans, their offense didn't resemble a middling high school team this past week against Northwestern. Here's the problem though, do you remember what happened the last time MSU looked like a real college football team? It went on the road a week after its win against Michigan and got destroyed by Iowa. Maybe the Spartans learned something from that episode, but even if they did, can they do anything against an angry Ohio State team that's been waiting a long time just to get back on the field? As for OSU, the Buckeyes are in the national championship hunt and can't take anything for granted, so you know they'll be ready.        

Rutgers (+11.5) vs Penn State

 Love him or hate him, Greg Schiano knows how to get the most out of overmatched players. He's been doing it all year as Rutgers has gone from historically bad, to decent in the span of one season. The Scarlett Knights have been within reaching distance of every opponent this season with the exception of Ohio State and possibly Indiana. My point is, when not playing the upper echelon of the Big 10, Rutgers has stood its ground. Penn State finally found a win this past week at Michigan, but what is that even worth now? This line assumes that Penn State has its mojo back and it also assumes that this 1-5 team gives a damn about going to Piscataway to play Rutgers. I don't believe either.               

Texas Tech (-27.5) vs Kansas 

Another week, another ATS loss for the Jayhawks. That makes eight in a row (if you got WVU at the right number) for Kansas this year as its "Dust in the Wind" tour continues through the heartland. This week, it's Lubbock, TX where the Jayhawks get a Red Raider team that's probably a little peeved about losing in a shootout at Oklahoma State this past week. I said from the get-go that I was going to fade Kansas all season and there's no reason to stop here. I'm not even sure I trust Texas Tech to stop the Jayhawks enough times to cover this number, but I have to trust that the oddsmakers know what they're doing here. It's either that or this is the week that the oddsmakers finally caught up to how bad Kansas really is. Nah, that's not it.                

Notre Dame (-32.5) vs Syracuse

Syracuse actually gave N.C. State all it could handle this past week, but as the Orangemen do, they came up short yet again. It was a valiant effort, but unfortunately for them, they gave all they had last week and they likely won't have anything left for this game. At least, that's how it will appear because Notre Dame is possibly just one more win from a playoff berth. Yes, the Fighting Irish still have Clemson on the radar, but it things fall right, this might be the only stumbling block left and I highly doubt they're going to mess this up. This is the perfect setup for the 'Irish as their only issue this season has been on defense, but Syracuse is not equipped to take advantage of their shortcomings. AS such, Notre Dame pulls away early and never looks back.          

Under (45.5) Indiana at Wisconsin

I'm really uncomfortable going under numbers this small, but considering the circumstances, I'll make an exception. The circumstances of course are the injury to Indiana's QB Michael Penix Jr. and the fact that both of these teams can play defense. Wisconsin hasn't surrendered more than 17 points in any game all season and Indiana has been strong on the defensive side of the ball (save for the Ohio State game) all season as well. Wisconsin got a sneak peek at what the Hoosiers might bring on offense this week without Penix, so they should be prepared and as long as the Badgers don't get caught off guard, I can't see Indiana scoring more than 14 points. As long as Wisconsin doesn't go crazy, this game should stay under the total.           

Last Week: 2-3-0, Season: 32-28-0