College Capper: Best Bets Conference Championship Week

Chris' Picks

We're streaking! Running a nice 8-1 heater over the last two weeks. This week's slate has me feeling anything but confident, evident by a total and two Pac-12 selections. In an odd year, we're wrapping up the regular season with a mix of conference championships and essentially meaningless games where we can question motivation until the cows come home. It's almost a prequel to bowl week for those matchups; who shows up?

USC (-3) vs. Oregon (Friday)

Full disclosure, I had pegged Oregon for this column, with the thought that USC's division wasn't as good, and the Ducks having the talent advantage. But the more I looked at stats, the less I trusted Oregon's offense, and the more I trusted USC QB Kedon Slovis. I don't think either team has won anything of significance, but Oregon's body of work, paired with their more-recent time off, and I expect the Trojans to take care of business, and feel we can exploit a small line.

Over (66) Florida State at Wake Forest

The Deacons seem motivated, with head coach Dave Clawson coming out and saying they'd play in two bowl games if invited. But they've also allowed 104 points in their last two outings while scoring 74. It's been the result of 5.3 YPC and six rushing scores, and running the ball is all FSU can do. The 'Noles defense is pathetic, allowing 36.0 ppg (105th), with opponents going north of that total five times. Loyal readers know I hate totals, and this seems too obvious. But I don't see a clear path to either team going under 30. 

Alabama (-17) vs. Florida

'Bama's offense appears to be on a completely different level. They're averaging 49.5 ppg, a number they've eclipsed five times. QB Mac Jones has an incredible 27:3 TD:INT ratio and is averaging 11.7 YPA, and the Tide scored 52 points last week without a passing touchdown. You have to assume a spirited effort from Florida following last week's loss, and yes, they can attack Alabama vertically, where they're vulnerable defensively. But the Gators secondary is equally vulnerable, and I just can't see them keeping up through four quarters.

Texas A&M (-14) at Tennessee

Of all the teams playing this week, I can argue the Aggies should have the most motivation. A win and a Clemson loss, and they are in the playoffs. A convincing win and they may have a solid argument over Ohio State. This game kicks off at noon, and I expect the Aggies to go for style points. Yes, their offense has labored lately, largely due to a disjointed schedule. But they rank 30th in points allowed at 22.1 ppg, and the Vols labor offensively, ranking 104th at 22.4 ppg, being held under that number in five of their six losses. I think A&M can earn a cover convincingly, but also can do so by scoring 24-28 as well.

Oregon State (+7)  vs. Arizona State

The Beavers have been incredibly feisty despite their 2-4 record, as only their opening-game loss came by more than six points. There's no doubting that the Sun Devils have a more dynamic offense, and that's a scary proposition when betting a dog that's run-heavy. And OSU is playing their seventh game in seven weeks, a Pac12 rarity. But if I can assume a full dose of OSU RB Jermar Jefferson, I'll take the ground and pound, plus points, in a likely cold night game in the Pacific Northwest.

Last week: 3-1; Season: 36-31-2

GREG'S PICKS

And we're back! There, that wasn't so bad, just a little three-week detour to keep expectations in check. No harm done, right? As you've probably guessed by now, I got back on the winning side of the ledger this past week and let me tell, you, it wasn't easy.

The week started poorly with a blowout loss of Missouri, although the Tigers were tied at 14-14 for about three seconds. From there, Georgia annihilated the Tigers. While that was happening, the Gophers and Cornhuskers got caught up in an old-school Big 10 game where neither team did much on offense. Serves me right for believing in Nebraska. That was it for the losses however as it was all wins the rest of the way. Iowa cruised past Wisconsin for an easy win, and that was followed by a pair of overs in the night contests. Neither was a cakewalk, but both got there in the end.

Though this season has been completely disjointed and the lack of fans has made it a little less interesting, at least we get a bunch of games on the final weekend of the regular season. Oh, and did I mention bowl season is right around the corner, like right after this weekend? How cool is that?     

Under (54) Rutgers vs Nebraska

I really wanted to fade Nebraska after what it did to me this past week, but I feel like I'm in a zig-zag relationship with the 'Huskers right now and if I pick against them this week, they'll show up like they did against Purdue. With that in mind, I'm going to just play the under here and neither of these teams has much offense to speak of. Both teams are decent on defense and fairly lousy on offense as both average around 350 yards per game on offense. Each of these teams have got caught up in shootouts this season, but more often than not they involved high-level competition or a lot of turnovers. As long as the turnovers don't lead to a lot of points here, this game should stay under the total.          

USC (-3) vs Oregon

 It was just about 12 months ago that Oregon came into the PAC 12 Championship game as the underdog and we all remember how that turned out. Actually you might not, but as you can imagine, Oregon took care of the favored Utah team with ease, but that Ducks team had Justin Herbert and this one has Tyler Shough, who's not a bad QB, but his 11-4 TD to INT ratio isn't scaring anyone on the opposite sideline. Oregon had the most hype of all the PAC 12 teams this season, but the Ducks have dropped two in a row entering this game and aren't supposed to be here. USC is simply finding a way and wins over UCLA and Arizona State look pretty good on paper right about now. The Trojans find a way to get it done one more time and cover this number.               

 Over (66) Wake Forest vs Florida State 

Florida State has been terrible on defense all season and Wake Forest isn't far behind. Each team surrenders over 450 yards per game and neither team has stopped their opponents from getting into the endzone lately. Wake has surrendered 104 points combined in its past two games, while FSU hasn't held anyone under 35 since mid-October. The only question is, can the offenses take advantage? Prior to this past week I would have been skeptical about the Seminole offense, but they got their rhythm, albeit against a terrible Duke team, this past week. Wake has been pretty efficient on offense all season and should have no trouble moving up and down the field on FSU.

Ohio State (-21) vs Northwestern

This pains me a little because I like what Northwestern has been able to do this season, but I think the 'Cats are in over their heads here. The problem is their offense, which isn't terrible, but it relies way too much on the running game and Ohio State allows just 95 yards per game on the ground. Make Northwestern one-dimensional and this one could get ugly. Some might point to the Indiana game as a good comparison for this one, but the big difference there is that the Hoosiers are, or at least were, fairly dynamic on offense with a healthy Michael Penix Jr. Don't forget that Indiana's defense is legit as well and yet the Hoosiers allowed 42 points. Ohio State needs to win and win with style to eliminate any doubt about its inclusion in the playoffs, which means the Buckeyes are not going to let up for a single minute.           

Over (74.5) Alabama vs Florida

Thinking about this game, I'm reminded of the Alabama/LSU game where after one quarter they were on pace for 3000 points or so. Okay, it wasn't that much, but it was darn near 100 at one point. They didn't get close after 'Bama let off the gas, but that won't be the case here as they won't have the luxury of being up by four touchdowns. Florida really blew it this past week against LSU and while some might think the Gators have nothing to play for now, it's actually the opposite. This is the entire season right here. The Gators can still win the SEC and knock off the big dog in the process. The offense has never been the problem for the Gators and this isn't your daddy's Alabama, this team doesn't play much defense against capable offenses. Both teams will move the ball at will and while Alabama will win, the 'Tide will need to stay on the gas through the 4th quarter to do so.             

Last Week: 3-2-0, Season: 37-33-0