This article is part of our RotoWire Bracketology series.

NCAA Bracketology 2025: Auburn, Duke and Everyone Else

The top of the seed list hasn't changed much in the last couple months. Auburn and Duke have dominated the sport since December. Duke hasn't been in the spotlight as much playing in a weak ACC, but due to a bevy of blowouts, it has one of the best Net Ratings ever at KenPom, a full point above Auburn.

The Tigers have two overall losses and only one in the SEC, which is considered one of the best conferences ever this season, yet they haven't moved much in predictive metrics because they aren't blowing every team out by 30-plus points like the Blue Devils.

Heading into the tournament, there aren't a ton of matchups in which I'll take the opponent against Auburn or Duke. It'll be easier to fade Duke given its ACC schedule but only in theory. It beat Illinois by 43 points on a neutral court -- the same Illinois that won by 20 points at Michigan on Sunday. Weak conference or not, Duke is really good.

The sportsbooks agree with Duke and Auburn, as both are roughly -135 to make the Final Four.

The bigger question for Selection Sunday and filling out your bracket is the other teams. For me, Auburn and Duke are in Tier 1, while there are six to eight teams in Tier 2. While Houston, Florida and Tennessee all rank really well, they aren't on the same tier as the top two.

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Tier Two: Teams that can reach the Championship

Houston: NET 3, SOR 2, 25-4 overall, 7-1 Quad 1

I've talked about Houston a few times the last couple months, but I still don't think this is a peak Kelvin Sampson team. The metrics love the Cougars as always, and I'll probably pick them to at least go to the Elite Eight, but I won't be picking them to win it all. They've racked up a lot of wins against what I think is a mediocre Big 12. I think it could be argued they'd be the fifth-best team in the SEC.

Alabama: NET 6, SOR 4, 23-6 overall, 10-6 Quad 1

Alabama's upside is undeniable. When things are going its way, it's almost impossible to beat this team. If its defense picks it up in the NCAA tournament similar to last season, anything is possible. I like the roster and their ability at all levels, but the Crimson Tide still lack defensively, which really showed up in their losses to Auburn and Missouri. Sure, those are really good offenses, but having a defense that isn't always locked in is a recipe for losing come March.

Florida: NET 4, SOR 6, 25-4 overall, 6-4 Quad 1

I didn't believe in Florida earlier in the season, but even with numerous injuries, it's been able to win big games. The Gators have a complete squad, and that was before Micah Handlogten returned from injury a couple weeks ago. Whether as a 1- or 2-seed, it'll be hard to knock this team off, and at 100 percent, they're probably closest to being in my Tier 1.

Tennessee: NET 5, SOR 5, 24-5 overall, 10-5 Quad 1

This is a fairly classic Rick Barnes-coached Tennessee team. It's rated as the best defense in the country, but offensively, there is a lot to be desired. Dalton Knecht kind of changed that sentiment last season, but eventually leaning too much on one player in the tournament was a problem. I still don't believe in this team offensively unless Zakai Zeigler is playing his A-game. In back-to-back losses to Kentucky and Auburn, he was a combined 1-for-17 from three.

Michigan State: NET 11, SOR 7, 24-5 overall, 10-3 Quad 1

Tom Izzo and Rick Barnes are friends, and their teams are almost identical from a metrics perspective. Both are top five in terms of defense and sitting just beyond 25th in offense. The Spartans are on a great run, but an inconsistent offense is reason to doubt them to go far in March Madness, similar to the Vols. Jase Richardson might be the answer to that and should be a reason people pick them to go to the Final Four, but his teammates have to show a little more consistency.

Texas Tech: NET 7, SOR 11, 22-7 overall, 6-5 Quad 1

The Red Raiders are barely in this tier, but at full strength, they have shown enough offensively and defensively to make a run. They have shooters, a paint presence and a rim protector, which are key pillars for good tournament teams. However, unlike all the other teams on this list, they have bad losses to St. Joe's, UCF and TCU. Sure, they've had injuries, but when you have multiple losses to mediocre teams, that's cause for a concern come tourney time.

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Tier Three: Teams that can reach the Final Four

Wisconsin: NET 14, SOR 10, 22-7 overall, 6-6 Quad 1

The Badgers are the opposite of the Spartans in that their defense is the main question. While no one would compare Alabama and Wisconsin, the two are fairly similar in how they play. This is the fastest-paced Badgers team since the 2005/06 season, though ranking 165 in Adjusted Tempo doesn't exactly scream run-and-gun. Similar to Alabama, when the shots are falling, they're hard to beat. But if the shots don't fall and the defense isn't locking down, upsets are abound.

Iowa State: NET 9, SOR 9, 22-7 overall, 6-5 Quad 1

The Cyclones weren't going to be on this list, but their only loss with a fully healthy roster is to Auburn, and they led by 16 points in that Maui matchup. The return of Milan Momcilovic has made all the difference, as he's their best three-point shooter. Watching some of their losses without Momcilovic was tough, but with a full squad, they could be a decent Final Four pick.

St. John's: NET 19, SOR 8, 26-4 overall, 3-4 Quad 1

The Red Storm are reaping the benefits of a mediocre Big East. With an outright title and 26-4 record, they would be in conversations for a 1-seed, but at 3-4 in Quad 1, they aren't a lock for a 2-seed. Their defense should get them a couple wins, but unlike Michigan State, St. John's is inefficient across the board offensively, with its best route of scoring coming from offensive rebounds.

Maryland: NET 12, SOR 23, 22-7 overall, 6-6 Quad 1

Maryland is on this list because its starting five is really good. Most teams will have trouble defending both Derik Queen and Julian Reese down low. Surrounded by three decent three-point shooters, the Terrapins should make the Sweet 16. However, outside of an abnormal run where Queen and Reese terrorize every opponent and they aren't defended on the three-point line, their lack of depth will become a problem at some point in the tournament. 

Metrics prior to games on Monday, March 3

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