This article is part of our RotoWire Bracketology series.

NCAAM Bracketology 2025 on RotoWire: Auburn, Duke and Houston a step above the rest

In recent seasons, there have been one or two teams that tower above the rest. UConn and Purdue fit the bill last season and met in the National Championship. UConn sort of held that distinction in 2022-23, but it took until March for its dominance to show. 

The season before that was one of the more wide open ones, as Kansas beat 8-seed North Carolina in the title game. Five years ago in the 2021-22 season, Gonzaga and Baylor met in the title game after clearly being the best teams in the sport entering the tournament.

I usually like analyzing the best teams in the country at least a month before the NCAA tournament to get a read on how the madness will play out. If dominant teams in January continue to be dominant, it's usually easier to project those ones to make the Final Four and beyond.

This season, there are three teams with a KenPom NET Rating above 31. Tennessee and Florida are just below the cut off, and I don't envision either of them being dominant, at least in my book. There's a long way to go, but it's extremely rare to have three teams with better than a 35 rating. 

While the final numbers posted at KenPom are calculated after the NCAA tournament, it's notable that Purdue finished last season at 30.62. In the prior season, no one had a rating above 30. If Auburn, Duke and Houston continue on this path, this tournament could feature the best combined trio of teams ever, at least according to KenPom.

Auburn: NET 1, 20-1 overall, 12-1 Quad 1

Prior Bruce Pearl teams at Auburn have been really good, but consistency was a clear issue. As a 4-seed last season, it lost to Danny Wolf and Yale after a late collapse. The difference for the Tigers this season has been a historically efficient offense. Johni Broome is awesome in the paint, but he can step back and hit threes, in addition to four teammates shooting near 40-percent from deep.

Combine that with decent size and versatility defensively, and it's clear why the Tigers top most rankings. The difference with this team compared to recent ones is that Broome runs a lot of the offense. In the past, Auburn has had a couple unhinged players on the team that would often try things themselves and launch bad shots or turn it over. It was frantic basketball that had peaks and valleys. 

For now, it seems like there's a safe medium with this team, aided by a top-10 turnover rate in the country, which has meant bad things for opponents.

To beat them, you need great post defense and the ability to get out and contest the three. To an extent, it's somewhat similar to the Zach Edey teams with Purdue, except Auburn seems deeper and more athletic, plus Broome can hit threes.

Duke: NET 2, 19-2 overall, 5-2 Quad 1

Talent is never a question at Duke, as it usually gets the best recruits out of high school. The question is how well the pieces work together. This season, that's been answered by Cooper Flagg, who will likely go No. 1 in this year's NBA Draft. His do-it-all approach combined with a clamp-down defense has led to an undefeated ACC record.

Duke already beat Auburn, but that game was at Cameron Indoor, so I don't think it means much in terms of comparing the two.

The Blue Devils have stud freshmen (Flagg, Kon Knueppel, Khaman Maluach), veteran players in the system (Tyrese Proctor, Caleb Foster) and experienced transfers (Sion James, Maliq Brown, Mason Gillis). Throw that together with one of the best freshman ever and a weaker ACC, and you get a bunch of wins.

The unfortunate thing about a down ACC is that it's hard to rate how good this team actually is going into March Madness. While the Blue Devils beat Auburn at home, they lost to Kentucky and Kansas on neutral courts, albeit early in the season. 

Beating up on bad and mediocre teams is nice for metrics, but facing fellow top-25 teams won't be a possibility until the madness begins.

Houston: NET 3, 17-4 overall, 3-4 Quad 1

I wrote a bit about Houston a couple weeks ago, and my thoughts are mostly the same, even after losing to Texas Tech on Saturday. Its metrics are oddly juiced despite having four losses, but as usual, its defense and pace of play often leads to blowouts against bad teams. Most notably, Houston won by 30 points at Kansas State, a win that could eventually be considered Quad 1. A 30-point Quad 1 win would be a massive boost to anyone's metrics.

No matter, I still don't think this team is as good as prior versions, and I won't be as comfortable picking the Cougars to win it all as the above teams. They do a lot of things really well and have familiar faces, but I still think they're lacking a player of Jamal Shead or Marcus Sasser's quality. 

It's possible Kelvin Sampson's style will be enough to reach the Elite Eight or Final Final, but I'm not at a point where I can trust L.J. Cryer, Milos Uzan or Emanuel Sharp in the tournament. I think this team is worse than the ones with Shead and Sasser, which means they aren't in the Auburn and Duke conversation yet despite what the metrics say.

Metrics prior to games on Monday, Feb. 3

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