NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Preview: Midwest Region Outlook & Predictions

March Madness 2025 continues onward to the Sweet 16, and four teams remain in the Midwest region. Brian Williams examines the matchups and makes his Elite Eight picks.

South Region Sweet 16 Preview
East Region Sweet 16 Preview
Midwest Region Sweet 16 Preview
West Region Sweet 16 Preview

Site: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana

Tip-off: Friday, March 28, 7:39 PM TBS/truTV

It has been status quo in the Midwest, as each of the top four seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16. The biggest potential bracket-wrecker remaining in the region is No. 4 Purdue. The defending national runner-ups were a popular pick to be upset early but put together back-to-back decisive victories over one-bid mid-major teams in No. 13 High Point and No. 12 McNeese State. The Boilermakers will take on top-seeded Houston, who after rolling over No. 16 SIU-Edwardsville had to sweat out a late comeback attempt by No. 8 Gonzaga and will advance to its fifth-consecutive Sweet 16 appearance. The Cougars reward? A de facto road matchup in Indianapolis against the red-hot Boilermakers. 

On the other side of the bracket, No. 2 Tennessee took down No. 15 Wofford and No. 7 UCLA while No. 3 Kentucky avenged last year's first-round exit and looked impressive in wins over No. 14 Troy and No. 6 Illinois to set up a third matchup between the long-time SEC rivals this season. The Wildcats won the first two games, but revenge for the Volunteers would result in their second-consecutive trip to the Elite Eight. 

The matchups are set so let's dive into how things will shake out later this week in Indianapolis. 

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No. 1 Houston vs. No. 4 Purdue

Key Matchup: Trey Kaufman-Renn vs. Joseph Tugler. Kaufman-Renn led the Big Ten in scoring this season by averaging 20.3 points while scoring at least 15 in all but four games this season. He's also scored 20-plus in five straight, including the first two games of the tournament. However, none of those five games have come against a team with the interior defense that Houston possesses. The unsung hero of this Houston squad is Tugler, who became the second-consecutive Cougar (Jamal Shead) to win the Defensive Player of the Year in the Big 12 while also being named a one of four finalists for the Naismith Award as the best defensive player in the nation. Tugler doesn't necessarily jump off the page statistically, averaging 2.0 blocks and 0.9 steals per game but it's his 7-6 wingspan on a 6-8 frame that gives him an edge. Kaufman-Renn doubles as Purdue's leading rebounder and will be needed to provide his typical consistent production despite facing his toughest matchup of the season. 

Houston will win IF: It stays well-rounded offensively. We all know the Cougars possess a stout defense, but they've also maintained a highly-efficient offense this season, ranking eighth in offensive efficiency according to KenPom. That includes ranking second nationally in three-point field-goal percentage at 39.8 percent. In its four losses, Houston did not necessarily struggle from three but did shoot under 42 percent from the field in three of those four contests after averaging 45.6 percent on the season. Purdue allows its opponents to shoot 45.4 percent as a whole, though its perimeter defense is much better, allowing just 31.0-percent from beyond the arc. The Cougars are highly efficient from downtown, but if they get too happy to fire it away from downtown, it would play into Purdue's defensive strategy. 

Purdue will win IF: It can stay even in the turnover battle. Houston ranks behind only Ole Miss among all power conference schools in turnovers committed (9.2) and is among the best in the nation with a plus-4.5 turnover margin. However, in its four losses, Houston has coughed it up a much more pedestrian 11.5 times while finishing with just one fewer turnover than its opponents. The Cougars have turned the ball over just 14 times through two tournament games, while Purdue turned the ball over 19 times against McNeese State alone. If the Boilermakers can't clean that up, they'll have little shot to take down the top seed. 

Player to Watch: Braeden Smith, G, Purdue. The Big Ten Player of the Year finished second in the nation with 8.5 assists while finishing second on the Boilermakers in scoring with 16.0 points per game. Yet, Smith also has a propensity to turn the ball over, averaging three per game. As noted above, Purdue must hold its ground in the turnover battle if it wants to pull off the upset, and that will fall directly into the hands of their All-American point guard.

Prediction: Purdue's two wins since the start of the tournament have come against lesser mid-major competition, while Houston survived a battle with a highly-talented Gonzaga squad. We know the Cougars can traditionally win ugly if need be, but this year, they've also picked up their offensive efficiency, ranking one spot ahead of Purdue within the top-10 of that metric. While Houston can match Purdue offensively, it's tough to see a path for Purdue to match Houston defensively. If the Boilermakers can shoot the ball well and limit the mistakes, they can get the hometown fans into it and keep it close. But Houston is deeper, equally effective on offense and substantially better defensively, as well as at protecting the rock. It's a great setup for Houston, as the hill is simply too high to climb for the Boilermakers. Houston will comfortably move on. 

Sweet 16 Pick: Houston

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No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 3 Kentucky

Key Matchup: Mark Pope vs. Rick Barnes. With these two teams having already played twice, it comes down to coaching adjustments. The Vols are a rugged defensive group, especially on the perimeter with both two-time SEC Defensive Player of the Year Zakai Zeigler, and Jahmai Mashack being named among the four finalists for the Naismith DPOY Award. However, Kentucky counters that with a fast-pace approach that focuses on spacing and creates open shots. This includes diversifying by using big men as ball distributers. Starting center Amari Williams is second on the team in assists and paced the Wildcats in helpers during the teams' first meeting. The Tennessee defense struggled in both games with preventing open looks. The key to the game is whether Rick Barnes will make the necessary adjustments to allow Tennessee to better execute their physical brand of defense against the Kentucky offense and force the Wildcats into more contested looks. 

Tennessee will win IF: The Vols remember who they are. The Volunteers led the SEC by allowing their opponents to shoot 38.2 percent from the field and 25.6 percent from three. Yet, Kentucky managed to shoot 50 percent from both the field and from deep in each game as the Wildcats dealt Tennessee two of its seven losses on the season. Quite simply, the Vols need to limit Kentucky's efficiency, or they can expect to see the same result. 

Kentucky will win IF: It executes the blueprint. At the risk of being redundant, the Wildcats shot the ball at a 50 percent clip from the field and from beyond the arc in both wins over Tennessee while limiting the Volunteers to under 25 percent from deep in both games. This discrepancy helped mask the fact that Big Blue lost the turnover and rebounding battles. If Kentucky shoots the ball well and prevents Tennessee from doing the same, the Wildcats will come out on top again. 

Player to Watch: Chaz Lanier, G/F, Tennessee. Lanier sets the offensive tone for the Volunteers, leading the team with an average of 18.1 points while being Tennessee's biggest threat from deep, shooting the ball at a 41.0 percent clip from three-point land. The senior sharp-shooter set a school record with 120 three-pointers made this season, but in two losses to Kentucky, Lanier shot just 3-for-17 from deep while the Vols as a team shot below 25 percent in both contests. Lanier has topped 20 points in both games of the tournament thus far while shooting 10-for-18 from deep. If he can keep up that production against the Wildcats, Tennessee will be in great position to move on. 

Prediction: As the old adage goes, it's tough to take down the same team three times in a season. All the same, as you can see from above, there was a common theme throughout this preview. Kentucky seems to have solved the riddle of the Volunteer defense. Can Tennessee make the necessary adjustments and coerce the Wildcats to play at their pace while forcing them into a more physical brand of basketball? Due to their history as SEC foes, this could be the most compelling matchup in the Round of 16. This season marks the 23rd time Rick Barnes has led a team into the tournament, including one Final Four appearance in 2003 while with Texas. While he's been susceptible to hiccups in past tournaments, it's tough to see Kentucky maintaining its lights-out shooting for a third-consecutive game against a unit as good as Tennessee's defense. I'll say that Tennessee finds some defensive answers, gets a big offensive performance from Chaz Lanier and wins a hard-fought battle against its bitter rivals to survive and advance.  

Sweet 16 Pick: Tennessee  

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