NCAA Tournament Preview: Midwest Region

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The Midwest is set to be the most exciting region of the tournament with Kansas, Duke and Michigan State at the top of the rankings all season. Throw in Oklahoma's Trae Young, SEC champion Auburn and squads like Arizona State and NC State that have beaten all of the top teams in the nation, and it's probably the toughest of the bunch. Will the favorites shine or will underdogs pave a path en route to the Elite 8 and Final 4?

THE FAVORITES

No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks

The Jayhawks didn't get much respect throughout the season, but in the end, they won the Big 12 outright and then won the conference tournament without their best big (Udoka Azubuike (13.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg). But there are still questions surrounding them because while they've dominated the Big 12 the last 14 years, the same can't be said for the NCAA tournament. Devonte Graham (17.3 ppg, 7.5 apg) may be the best point guard in the region (or country), but it's been everyone else that's helped this team from Azubuike down low to Svi Mykhailiuk (15.1 ppg) and more recently Malik Newman, who went 15-of-22 from three-point range in the Big 12 tournament. That said, when the shots aren't falling, anything can happen and that's what happened a few times at home this season.

No. 2 Duke Blue Devils

The Blue Devils probably have the most talented team in the country, but they haven't exactly put that together in every game, highlighted by losses to Boston College and St. John's. Freshman Marvin Bagley (21.1 ppg, 11.5 rpg) can be unstoppable at times, but he also takes away shots from guys like Grayson Allen (15.7 ppg) and fellow freshmen Trevon Duval, Gary Trent and Wendell Carter. Teams that can upset Duke are ones that carve up zone defenses and with this region, that may not be anyone. Defense was an issue earlier in the season and that's no longer the case as the Blue Devils are seventh in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.

No. 3 Michigan State Spartans

The Spartans could be a popular upset pick, but Coach K has had Tom Izzo's number and that's the first problem in this bracket. Those teams also met earlier in the season and Duke won while only getting 10 minutes from Bagley. As for the Spartans, they're looking to get back into form after a slow finish to the season and having not played for close to two weeks. They only have four seasons, but most of their Big Ten wins were too close for comfort. If they put things together, the talent is there to beat anyone. Jaren Jackson (3.2 bpg) and Nick Ward are only two members of the frontcourt, while Miles Bridges (16.9 ppg, 6.9 rpg) is set to be a lottery pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. The question is in the backcourt where Cassius Winston (6.8 apg) is the only consistent offensive player.

CINDERELLA WATCH

No. 12 New Mexico State Aggies

The Aggies are one of those classic 12-seeds that you don't want to see. They ran through the WAC this season and picked up neutral wins over teams like Illinois, Davidson and Miami. Their bread-and-butter is on the defensive end where they rank 14th in the country in adjusted efficiency and sixth in effective field-goal percentage allowed (45.6). Zach Lofton (19.8 ppg) and Jemerrio Jones (11.0 ppg, 13.2 rpg) are two seniors that have tournament experience and while the Aggies lack size, so does Clemson, which hasn't been the same team since losing Donte Grantham (14.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg) to injury. The same goes for Auburn, the possible second-round opponent that has lost four of six games without Anfernee McLemore.

BIGGEST BUST

No. 3 Michigan State

It's been a common refrain for most of the season that Michigan State has one of the most talented and deepest teams in the country, yet that hasn't turned into much despite a great record. The Spartans have struggled against inferior competition for the last two months from being down by 27 points to Northwestern, to scraping past Rutgers two different times. There's a chance they could make a run if everything works perfectly, but Duke has their number as it is. Bucknell will be a test and has already faced stiff competition in Maryland and UNC, playing both teams tight. The same goes for the second round whether it's a balanced TCU squad, the zone defense of Syracuse or high-scoring Arizona State. Even in Detroit, the Spartans are far from a guarantee to win two games.

FIRST-ROUND UPSET

No. 12 New Mexico State over No. 5 Clemson – I just mentioned the Aggies and the route isn't friendly for Clemson making it past the Sweet 16 or even winning a game. Outside of the home win against UNC back in January, the Tigers don't have any good wins without Grantham and have lost five of their last eight. As a 5-seed Clemson has the ability to get to the Sweet 16, but nothing lines up for it to get any further without one of its better players. The Tigers rate great defensively at eighth in the country in adjusted efficiency, although the offense has dipped without Grantham. Gabe DeVoe, Marcquise Reed and Elijah Thomas may have enough to get past New Mexico State or even Auburn, but it's hard to see more than that if Kansas is waiting in the Sweet 16.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Devonte Graham, G, Kansas
Marvin Bagley, F, Duke
Trae Young, G, Oklahoma

All of these players deserve mentioning because they're all in the running for National Player of the Year, and that's not including MSU's Miles Bridges. Young may not make it out of the first round, but he's still worth watching in that first game against Rhode Island. Bagley is worth a look anytime he steps on the court because of how dominant he is, as seen in a recent 33-point, 13-rebound performance against Notre Dame. Until he faces Michigan State, there isn't anyone as big or athletic as him. Graham may not be the most exciting to watch, but as a senior that runs the show for a 1-seed, he's just as important. Graham makes things happen for Kansas, whether it's hitting threes, driving and drawing fouls or setting up teammates. He can do it all.

SWEET 16 PICKS

No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks

The Jayhawks may not be a safe pick because of how they play, but it's hard to see them not making it to the second week. Seton Hall and NC State have players that can cause KU problems, but I'm not betting against Kansas in Wichita.

No. 12 New Mexico State Aggies

I needed at least one upset in here and my Cinderella team is my pick to make it. The Aggies don't shoot it well, which is their most worrying stat, but due to injuries for Clemson and Auburn, the route is there for some upsets.

No. 3 Michigan State Spartans

There's plenty of reason to worry about the Spartans, but there's also plenty of reason to take them to advance. They have everything you need to win in the tournament and playing in Detroit should only help.

No. 2 Duke Blue Devils

No one in Duke's first two games will know what to do with the Bagley and Carter combo. Young can't do it all for Oklahoma and Rhode Island doesn't have much size and isn't great at rebounding. The Blue Devils may not even need good games from the backcourt to win their first two.

FINAL FOUR PICK

No. 2 Duke Blue Devils

Coach K is 11-1 against Tom Izzo in his career and that number says it all. No one from the top of the region will contend with Duke and that includes Kansas. The Jayhawks are iffy against zones and there's close to no chance they'll have the bodies to deal with Duke's frontcourt. None of these teams are easy to trust, but Duke's talent is too much to pass up in March Madness.