March Madness 2025 Preview: East Region Picks & Predictions

March Madness 2025 Preview: East Region Picks & Predictions

The NCAA Tournament East Region features Wooden Award favorite Cooper Flagg & a historically good Duke team, in addition to elite teams in the SEC and Big Ten. Chris Bennett offers his overall and upset picks.

Check out the rest of RotoWire's NCAA Tournament preview series here:

East Region NCAA Tournament Preview
West Region NCAA Tournament Preview
Midwest Region NCAA Tournament Preview
South Region NCAA Tournament Preview

Despite some top-end talent, the East Regional looks like it's Duke's to lose, with the Blue Devils playing their first two games in Raleigh before likely heading to alumni-heavy Newark (read New York). Baylor brings lottery picks and former Blue Devil Jeremy Roach should it survive Mississippi State, while the rest of Duke's initial quadrant looks erratic, potentially paving a path into the Elite 8 without challenge.

High-flying Alabama is an obvious scare at that level, should seeds hold. The East Region absolutely sets up for an ACC/SEC showdown that was dominated by the SEC both in December and throughout the year. My only hope is we aren't deprived of that matchup in the tournament's second weekend.

Getting ready for March Madness? For the latest NCAA Tournament team previews for the field of 68, head to the RotoWire Bracketology page.

EAST REGION NCAA TOURNAMENT FAVORITES

No. 1 Duke - Though still loaded with one-and-done NBA lottery picks, this isn't the typical Duke team full of youth and inexperience. The Blue Devils have 10 bodies that play 10-plus minutes on average, seemingly to be cut by one with Maliq Brown's injury in the ACC tournament, and it's a mix of program mainstays like Tyrese Proctor, and tested transfers in Sion James and Mason Gillis. The Blue Devils rank fourth in offensive efficiency and third in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Their strength is their length, allowing them to switch defensively always and force contested shots. Losers of only three, by 14 total points, all to tournament teams, they're an incredibly difficult out.

No. 2 Alabama - With the nation's fastest tempo, Alabama can outscore anyone in the field, though the pace also leads to questions about its defense. The Tide have lost five of their last nine, allowing 90+ in three of four overall and in three of their last four losses. They don't create turnovers, with cough-ups on just 13.5 percent of their defensive opportunities, ranking 348th. They're another deep unit that plays nine 15+ minutes, though that could be tested if and when forward Grant Nelson receives word on his knee. Early indications on his availability following an injury in the SEC Tournament were not encouraging.

No. 3 Wisconsin - An up-and-down final month-plus of the season brings questions to Wisconsin's potential for a run. The Badgers won five straight to open February before a second-half collapse against Oregon resulted in losses in three of their final five in the regular season. Wisco righted the ship last week in Indianapolis, reaching the Big 10 final before playing in its fourth game in four days wilted the offense. The Badgers also don't force turnovers or block shots, the latter being odd given they often have two 7-footers on the court. They'll rely on efficiency (13th offensively, 27th defensively) to advance, but the lack of turnovers can make game-changing runs a challenge.

No. 4 Arizona - The Wildcats seem like a team that's capable of outscoring anyone, but does their resume back that up? They've lost 12 times, including six in their last 11 outings, and nearly all of their best wins have come at home. They rank 12th in offensive efficiency and 33rd in defensive efficiency, so the metrics are there for a run even if prior results don't suggest Arizona is capable of stringing together 2-4 straight wins. There's no obvious Achilles heal, and there's tournament experience on the roster, but the resume doesn't inspire confidence.

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MARCH MADNESS CINDERELLA WATCH

No. 11 VCU - The Rams seem overdue an NCAA Tournament win. After their hey day under Shaka Smart, they've failed to win a game in each of their last four tournament appearances. They're a long and lean team with athleticism that will defend in your chest. VCU will use loose pressure rather than their former havoc style to delay/disrupt initial offensive schemes, tying for the seventh longest possession by opponents. It's frustrating and requires patience from offenses, as they can't have zero-point possessions.

No. 12 Liberty - I think we can make the argument for Oregon here as well, as a No. 5 seed reaching the second weekend of the tournament is underseeded, and thus an underdog. But lets have fun. Liberty is completely unproven with zero Quad 1 opportunities and a 3-2 Quad 2 record, beating McNeese State as its marquee win. But we've got a narrow 4.5 spread here for the Ducks, which simply says there's a chance. The Flames will try to slow this down and frustrate, ranking 284th in tempo and 48th in defensive efficiency. They're going to be undersized, and they don't shoot free throws well (65.4 percent). But if they can frustrate the Ducks, they could advance and follow a similar script against Arizona. The three-pointer is the great equalize, and Liberty happens to shoot it at the fifth-best success rate in the country.

BIGGEST BUST

No. 4 Arizona - I'm surprised to see Akron being such big underdogs in this opener, and I don't expect the Wildcats to roll through them. If they do, they'd face an upstart Liberty or a seemingly more physically imposing Oregon. The Wildcats are equally qualified to challenge Duke a week from their opener as they are to go home early. I'm not willing to bet we'll get their best for two games in three days.

FIRST-ROUND UPSET

No. 11 VCU over No. 6 BYU - I think we can make an argument against the No. 4, 5, and 6 seeds in the first round, so lets simply hedge that down and back the "most" likely scenario with a lesser-seeded upset. Know this comes begrudgingly as I live in Richmond, run the shot clock for UR and generally dislike all things VCU. This comes down to the 3-point line. VCU defends it well, ranking 23rd with a 30.3 make percentage allowed, while 47.4 percent of their shots come from behind the arch. BYU ranks 33rd in 3-point percentage (37.3 percent) but 243rd in 3-point defense (34.8 percent). Give me the Rams to defend the arc better and thus make more in route to a narrow win.

PLAYER TO WATCH

Cooper Flagg, F, Duke - This is low-hanging fruit, but it's the obvious narrative after he injured his ankle in Duke's opening ACC Tournament game and hasn't played since. He's not going to be needed in their first round game, which gives him over a week to recover before potentially facing Mississippi State or Baylor, both of whom have talent to compete. He's the likely No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft, and is the leading National Player of the Year candidate, averaging 18.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.3 blocks. This isn't hard-hitting analysis, but any potential aggravation to his ankle sinks Duke back into the middle of the pack when it comes to potentially winning the tournament.

Honorable mention to Wisconsin guard John Tonje and Arizona guard Caleb Love, the guards most capable of putting their teams on their backs and carrying them.

EAST REGION SWEET 16 PICKS

No. 1 Duke - We can question Duke's overall body of work some as it comes to being a top favorite to win the entire thing given the ACC's perceived down year. But the Blue Devils are essentially playing at home in Raleigh for the first stanza of this exercise, defend too well and are too deep to worry about a first-weekend upset. They'll ease Flagg back into action, Kon Knueppel will continue his late season breakout and the coach Jon Scheyer's squad win both games this week comfortably.

No. 2 Alabama - Robert Morris doesn't figure to offer much resistance in the Tide's opener, and there could be a second-round matchup with Vanderbilt, who 'Bama beat by 16 in-season. Should that second game be against St. Mary's, that's potentially scary, as the Gaels rank eighth defensively and 359th in tempo, and could be a bad matchup. They also rank second in offensive rebound percentage, with 'Bama checking in at 153rd in defensive rebounding rate. But talent takes over, and this is a team that reached the Final Four last season. They shouldn't bow out in the first weekend even if current form is shaky.

No. 3 Wisconsin - The Badgers get a short turnaround with a Thursday/Saturday draw off four games in as many days, but they've been amongst my favorite teams for a month plus despite up-and-down results. Tonje, John Blackwell and their depth of size keeps an upset off the table against Montana, and while VCU or BYU would be a challenging next game, they'll find a way to close out a second game with free throws (82.9 percent, leading the nation) while not turning it over (14.1 percent, 17th nationally)

No. 12 Liberty - Do I believe this; absolutely not! But what I believe is I don't trust Arizona enough to go all chalk, so we're left with the winner of Oregon/Liberty as our fourth pick. All that really does is set Duke up to continue coasting towards the Alamo. I buy Akron as more of a live dog than the books are suggesting, and if the Flames can win one, they'll carry enough momentum, play slow and win two straight.

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EAST REGION FINAL FOUR PICK

No. 1 Duke - I believe Alabama has the skill, depth and length to challenge Duke. But I'm far less confident in the Tide reaching the Elite 8 to allow that matchup to happen, so for now, we'll back the chalk. The Blue Devils are comfortable playing fast, can score at all levels, and defend at an elite level. The draw didn't hurt anything here, and they're an overwhelming favorite to reach San Antonio for good reason. Fade them only if you buy the narrative the ACC is terrible and they haven't been challenged for three months. Even then, their talent and depth will push back.