DFS College Basketball: Tuesday Preview

Top Players:

RJ Barrett, Duke ($9,700 FD, $11,000 DK): Barrett is averaging just over 40 DK points/game over three games without Zion Williamson, which is somehow less than his season average. That doesn't take into account the effort of 57.8 DK points against UNC, but the point I'm trying to make here is that Barrett hasn't automatically received a major boost with Zion on the shelf. He instead becomes the focal point of the opposing defense, which should be the case once again with Tuesday's matchup against Wake Forest. He registered 31.8 DK points the first time those teams met, but this time around is likely to be without Williamson available. According to reports from Monday, Zion is nearing the end of his rehab and should be considered day-to-day, but I don't understand the point of rushing him back for a home game against one of the ACC's worst teams (KenPom gives them less than a one percent chance to win). It's likely Barrett's show again, but as I alluded to earlier, that doesn't lock him in for even 4x on DraftKings. He's more of a GPP play for me. There's some blowout risk with Wake Forest checking in with the No. 226 defense, according to KenPom, and the team plays at a tempo landing right in the middle of the pack.

Dedric Lawson, Kansas ($8,900 FD, $9,900 DK): Lawson continues to dominate the KU usage rate with a fantasy-point ceiling in the mid-to-upper 50s. In his first meeting with the Sooners, Lawson totaled 13 points (6-17 FG) and 15 rebounds, but that was with a mostly-healthy Udoka Azubuike on the court. The rebounding floor won't go away, but Lawson is getting a road matchup against KenPom's No. 21-ranked defense, plus it's a team that already knows how to shut him down. Kansas enters as slight favorites in this game and will be playing with the Big 12 title streak on the line, but I'm not so sure Lawson is an "elite" play. He's coming off games of 50.0 and 44.8 DK points, but had been held under 30 in the previous three. I'll turn to the middle tier instead if I can, where there are plenty of stars with exceptional matchups.

Cassius Winston, Michigan State ($9,000 FD, $9,700 DK): Few in the nation are hotter than Winston, who has conceivably passed Wisconsin's Ethan Happ in the race for the conference's player of the year. The Spartans continue to get bitten by the injury bug, but Winston continues to lift them up. He's posted 40-plus DK points in each of his last three games, and while this is a slow-paced game with an over/under of 138, I have no problem letting Winston loose in cash games. His usage rate over the last 10 games (31.9 percent) is the second-highest on the entire slate, trailing only Purdue's Carsen Edwards ($8,400 FD, $9,400 DK). Edwards has a faster-paced game against Minnesota, but is averaging 26.2 DK points over his last five, while Winston has 41.4 over that span.

Grant Williams, Tennessee ($8,800 FD, $9,600 DK): Williams is another fine cash game play in a matchup against Mississippi State, which has the No. 191 tempo and No. 47 defense according to KenPom. He's essentially a lock for around 30 fantasy points, with upside that can reach in the 60s. The problem here is he gets a tough road matchup against a team with wins over Kentucky (twice) and LSU. In two matchups last season, it was Admiral Schofield ($7,800 FD, $8,000 DK) that had the better scoring numbers.

Ky Bowman, Boston College ($8,700 FD, $9,800 DK): Finally, one I like. Bowman and the Eagles host North Carolina, and while the team is on fire, it plays at a pace very conducive to extra possessions, which we all know leads to fantasy points. While they keep winning, the Tar Heels have allowed giant games to the likes of Tyus Battle, Marcquise Reed and RJ Barrett, and I put Bowman on this same tier when thinking of this purely in terms of fantasy production. He's a better rebounder than anyone in that group and can light up the scoreboard on any given night. It also helps he gets the highest over/under game on both slates.

Value Plays:

Hassani Gravett, South Carolina ($6,000 FD, $6,200 DK): Gravett's price is up there because he's been steadily producing all season, but it's always been in a reserve capacity. That changed Saturday when he drew the start in favor of A.J. Lawson, who was forced to sit with an ankle injury. Gravett played 39 minutes and scored 20 points -- the first time reaching that milestone since the SEC opener. Look for a similar alignment and shot distribution with Lawson expected to be out Tuesday.

Keyshawn Bryant, South Carolina ($5,000 FD, $4,440 DK): While Gravett gets Lawson's starting spot, Bryant might get the usage spike. He played 39 minutes against Missouri with Lawson out, collecting 32.25 DK points.

Tyson Carter, Mississippi State ($5,300 FD, $5,200 DK): Carter has benefitted from the indefinite suspension of Nick Weatherspoon, starting five in a row and averaging 27.1 on DK over that span. The price is creeping up, but there's still value here, even in a tough matchup.

Nick Richards, Kentucky ($4,600 FD, $4,100 DK): This is entirely dependent on Reid Travis (knee), who could actually return Tuesday. If he doesn't, make note that Richards has averaged 24 DK points/game in the absence of Travis, culminating in a return to the starting five Saturday. Might be the chalk of the slate if Travis sits again, as the price just hasn't caught up. People tend to forget he started 37 games for Kentucky last season, so he's capable.

Anfernee McLemore, Auburn ($5,100 FD, $4,400 DK): A recurring topic of this column, McLemore has benefitted from the absence of Austin Wiley (lower leg), tallying 20 fantasy points in three of his last four. Wiley is again doubtful, so look for the junior to keep starting at a position where the Tigers have limited depth. The FanDuel price is starting to catch up, but the DraftKings one is more than bearable.

Alex O'Connell, Duke ($4,200 FD, $3,500 DK): With Zion ruled out again, O'Connell is presumably in line to get his fourth start in a row. In his last three, he's 8-for-13 from beyond the arc and averaging 28.0 MPG. Prefer for GPPs, but he opens so much up.

Game to Target:

Boston College vs. North Carolina (-10.5), o/u 158, 8:00 p.m. EST

I mentioned Ky Bowman above, but with Wynston Tabbs (knee) likely still out, look for Jordan Chatman ($5,100 FD, $5,300 DK) and Jared Hamilton ($4,100 FD, $4,100 DK) to still get heavy minutes in a pace-boosted game. If you don't like the value plays above, look to these two in the bargain bin, as they are each starters with a reasonable ceiling. I think the Tar Heels will be able to keep Nic Popovic ($6,900 FD) in check, but note he is their usage leader over the last 10 games.

Now on to UNC. Boston College is basically neutral in terms of tempo, but its defense sits all the way down at No. 127, according to KenPom. All the usual suspects are in play, led by Luke Maye ($8,200 FD, $8,700 DK), Cam Johnson ($8,100 FD, $8,000 DK) and Coby White ($7,700 FD, $7,700 DK). These teams haven't met since January of 2018, but it was a game dominated by Maye in all aspects. It's tough to forget about a performance of 32 points and 18 rebounds, and BC basically has the same starting five with the exception of Jerome Robinson. Cam Johnson also had a double-double with five assists in that game, so he's absolutely worth a look as well. Garrison Brooks ($5,400 FD, $5,400 DK) is a slightly cheaper way to get a piece with Sterling Manley (knee) likely to still be out. I'm off Nas Little ($5,300 FD, $4,600 DK) outside of GPPs -- he's just wildy inconsistent.

Game to Fade:

Florida State (-4) vs. Virginia Tech, o/u 136, 7:00 p.m. EST

Only two Big 10 games to pick on tonight, but they surprisingly don't sit at the bottom of the over/under totals. That spot is reserved for this ACC matchup between two top-15 teams that is getting kicked to ESPNU because of the (presumably) Zion-less Duke. It's a challenging game to dissect from a fantasy standpoint, but let me give you some concrete reasons.

First, Justin Robinson remains on the shelf, and the Hokies have slowed down their tempo considerably without their third-leading scorer (14.4 ppg). I can't find a game log to quantify it and will admit this observation is based more on feel, but this is a team that already has KenPom's No. 331 adjusted tempo and isn't going in the right direction. Sure, you could make a case for Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($7,800 FD, $7,900 DK), but he's been over 40 on DK just twice in conference play, and not since Robinson went down.

The Hokies do get a slight pace boost, but will be on the road against the Seminoles' No. 14-ranked defense. They have a lengthy backcourt with no starter under 6-4, but the true strength lies in the frontcourt rotation of 7-4 Christ Koumadje ($5,600 FD, $5,300 DK) and 6-10 Mfiondu Kabengele ($6,000 FD, $6,400 DK), who give the Noles top-30 marks in block percentage and opponent two-point field goal percentage. That makes Kerry Blackshear Jr. ($8,500 FD, $7,900 DK) a fade for me.

Regular readers know I can't write one of these without giving Phil Cofer ($4,300 FD, $4,400 DK) a mention, but even though he's back to starting, the matchup is bad and he's a bit too inconsistent for DFS purposes. We're still waiting on some of that 2017 magic. If you need a punt from this game, there's always Wabissa Bede ($4,700 FD, $4,200 DK). Not a ton of ceiling, but 15.9 PPG on DK over his last eight is something.