This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Hey-oh! Prize pools are growing ever so slightly as Saturday's main slate at DraftKings comes with $10,000 in total winnings with $2,000 going to first place. It includes 11 games tipping off between 12 and 3:30 p.m. EST.
Only two players are at five figures and five more in the 9k tier, so we're not forced to spend heavily for elite options. Kentucky-Vanderbilt is our expected highest scoring matchup at 164.5 points, with UNC, Arizona, Florida, Iowa State, Pittsburgh, and Michigan State all potentially flirting with 80 points to provide many different rotations to consider within our builds.
Top Players
Ace Bailey, G/F, Rutgers ($10,400)
It's rare I'll highlight the highest-valued player on the slate and you don't need my opinion to just click Bailey's add button and move on, yet I'll give it anyway. I always want at least one ace - no pun intended - forward for my lineup, and I just don't see the upside in some of the cheaper upper tier options such as Alex Condon ($8,600) or Arthur Kaluma ($8,000) as they also carry far more volatility. We unfortunately need 40-plus fantasy points from Bailey to make this work, which he's done in three straight and five of seven. It's resulted in a massive salary hike in a matchup against a Spartans defense that ranks 20th in efficiency, per KenPom. But we've got an expected close game and MSU is undersized, which should create offensive mismatches for Bailey to exploit and ample rebounding opportunities.
Matt Cross, F, SMU ($7,500)
Cross has been rock solid night in and night out by going for 30-plus DKP from four of five and seven of nine while contributing in multiple areas averaging 13.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.0 steals. He's averaging an impressive 2.6 offensive rebounds and the Wolfpack are vulnerable allowing 33.2 percent of missed shots boarded by opponents to combat their slow pace. The narrow spread suggests we'll safely get 30-plus minutes from Cross, giving him a fair chance at a 4x return while not being overvalued.
Wade Taylor, G, Texas A&M ($7,200)
Rivalry game against Texas, a near pick 'em spread, and a player whose salary his dropped from a ceiling thanks to injury and poor form (5-for-25 over his last two games) gives us some potential. Despite not recently being able to throw it in the ocean, Taylor holds a 30.7 percent usage rate while averaging 3.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 2.0 steals. If a few shots fall, he offers 5x potential.
Middle Tier
Jason Edwards, G, Vanderbilt ($6,300)
The usage here is through the roof. And while the value is up the last week, it's still not at a season-high mark so we're not paying a premium. Edwards is at 30 percent through six January outings with only one effort under 24.2 all season. It's absolutely fair to question the upside as he's only averaging 2.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 0.9 steals as he's a flat-out scorer. That seems to be fine at this salary point in a matchup projecting the slate's highest total. This seems like too obvious of a play, so perhaps AJ Hoggard ($6,500) comes with less roster percentages.
Morris Ugusuk, G, South Carolina ($5,400)
Ugusuk has started four straight while averaging 21.1 DKP, making for a solid 3.9x return. It's far from an ideal matchup as the Bulldogs routed the Gamecocks earlier in the year and rank 173rd in tempo while South Carolina is at 275th and MSU sits 46th in defensive efficiency. But if we can guarantee starter minutes and hope USC is more competitive at home, it's a bargain for a potential 30-plus minutes.
Ven-Allen Lubin, F, North Carolina ($5,200)
UNC is a rare massive favorite on Saturday, and their opponent in Boston College doesn't offer a lot of size. Lubin and Jalen Washington ($5,300) will share minutes, which could exceed their normals if the Heels can build a lead. Lubin represents the safe play averaging 7.5 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.3 blocks across his last four, which creates 4x potential. Washington's ceiling is arguably higher as he's swatted more shots in rarer instances. I'll side with the cheaper, more stable option, yet both are viable.
Keep an eye on the status of Bryce Hopkins ($6,400). Nothing suggests he'll return from injury. And if Hopkins does, the minutes will probably be capped. But he's an elite option not valued as such should he be available.
Bargain Options
Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, F, North Carolina State ($4,200)
This seems like a spot to eat the chalk, accept most will use Huntley-Hatfield, take the square and be different elsewhere. He's been valued as high as $6,100 with only two games in single-digit fantasy points over 16 outings, and is seemingly now healthy. Only 12 DKP gives us a 3x return, and he's a player who averaged 12.9 points and 8.4 rebounds a season ago. There's no risk at this salary.
Justyn Fernandez, G, Providence ($4,000)
Fernandez looks like an elite GPP dart throw as we have so little to go on. In his first 10 appearances mixed amongst eight DNPs, he averaged under two points and two rebounds during 6.8 minutes. He started the Friars' last game while logging 27 minutes and providing 17 points, five rebounds and four assists with a 30.8 percent usage rate. That seems to merit more run, and that 30.75 DKP outing merits chasing Fernandez at this value.
Guillermo Diaz Graham, F, Pittsburgh ($3,800)
It's rare we can find this kind of upside at a minimal salary while knowing full well it comes with a potentially zero floor. Diaz Graham is coming off a 33.25 DKP outing and has returned 5x value in nine of Pitt's 17 outings. He's also been in single-digits from three of four and six of the last 11. We feel confident enough in Diaz Graham's rebounding ability and length to provide some defense with the upside coming if he's able to score - and that potential exists with the Panthers implied total of 78.5. We can also stomach 10 fantasy points at the salary, so it appears to be a win-win scenario.
