This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
College hoops is quietly returning from its holiday hiatus, easing the schedule back into action. Saturday's real-life slate only includes four games with ranked teams, three of which are included in DraftKings contest with a modest $1,000 first-place prize and a $4,000 total prize pool. The slate tips off at a later than usual 2:00 p.m. EST.
Two matchups come with a total of 152.0 or greater and they're obvious targets, while the low point is Nevada-Wyoming at 137.5. No player comes in over $9,200, so we're not going to pay a massive premium. And that's a great thing because there doesn't appear to be a lot of emerging players in new starting roles on the value end. Lots of mid-tier players and a balanced lineup would be my preference.
Top Players
Nelly Junior Joseph, F, New Mexico ($8,100)
We're looking at nearly identical spreads in this NM-Colorado State matchup as we are in Mississippi-Memphis, where the stars likely come with far higher roster percentages. Pair that with my affinity to have at least one top frontcourt option in my build, and Junior Joseph gets the nod here. He's got a huge ceiling with three double-doubles in his last four, yet also a scary low floor to make for a nice GPP play. The Rams only have three rotational forwards with none logging more than 19 minutes or of comparable length to Junior Joseph, so a solid day on the boards should be a given.
Jaylen Murray, G, Mississippi ($7,300)
I love the thought of pairing Murray with teammate Sean Pedulla ($8,000) for a nice mini-stack, but so does our lineup optimizer that surely makes this a more popular strategy. So I'll back Murray alone at a lower salary against a favorable opponent for numerous reasons. He's averaged 2.3 steals over his last four while Memphis turns the ball over 20 percent of the time ranking 302nd, per KenPom. Murray is also shooting 46.2 percent from 3-point range and Memphis sits 280th in defending the arc conceding at a 35.8 percent make rate. And finally, he's averaging 4.5 assists and Memphis is 335th in assists-to-field goals made defensively at 60.5 percent. All of this means there should be multiple paths to a potential huge fantasy day.
Middle Tier
Dain Dainja, F, Memphis ($6,700)
Dainja gives us a piece on both sides of this matchup, another frontcourt piece, and we only need 20.0 DKP for a 3x return. Don't worry that he's coming off the bench as he's averaging 23.8 minutes and skewed by one outing where he fouled out in 15 minutes. Dainja is also averaging 11.7 points, 6.9 rebounds and nearly a steal, block and assist during that stretch with a 27.7 percent usage rate. He'll be heavily involved when on the court, and you'd expect him to be on the court more than usual in a tight matchup and take on additional production as long as fouls don't come into play.
Obi Agbim, G, Wyoming ($6,600)
This mid tier is where I want to live in my builds, preferring consistency with potential over a blowup game as no star on this slate seems to boast slate-breaking potential. Agbim feels undervalued given his body of work having averaged 18.9 points, 3.5 rebounds and 3.6 assists across 33.5 minutes while taking at least nine shots in every outing and earning a 25.0 percent usage rate. Half of his shots come from behind the arc and Nevada defends 3-pointers well while also freely giving up attempts. Agbim has been under a 4x return four times across 12 games, suggesting an ample floor with higher potential.
Tre Coleman, F, Nevada ($6,100)
More frontcourt options! Coleman has been incredibly consistent while averaging 30-plus minutes for the third straight season. You can't help but stumble into production when on the court that much. Coleman isn't a big time rebounder, though offsets that with rare assist totals for the position. He's only been under 20 DKP from five of the Wolfpack's 12 outings. Tempo won't be in Coleman's favor, yet the Wolfpack are favored and should still reach 70 points. He profiles with no upside, but offers stability to mix in with more higher ceiling pieces.
Value Plays
Deyton Albury, G, Utah State ($4,600)
I didn't intend for this column to get as forward-heavy as it ended up being, and I firmly believe you can always find backcourt options. And it's also entirely possibly Albury isn't that, but he's seemingly assured of a starting role with Drake Allen sidelined. Perhaps Allen's absence should have us more interested in the Aggies' lead options in Ian Martinez ($7,400) or Mason Falslev ($8,300) as the offense will absolutely run through them, though Albury has averaged 17.0 DKP during his last two and that's all we need for a fair return.
Rashaan Mbemba, F, Colorado State ($4,400)
There are two clear matchups we want shares of on both sides, and Mbemba gives us a very cheap selection from CSU. We noted the Rams are thin up front, but part of that was due to a hip issue that's limited him into missing three games. Mbemba has still started six of the last seven with a 23.0 percent usage rate and posting a usable 8.3 points and 3.7 boards. He's disadvantaged in height against Nelly Junior Joseph, though not in bulk and could be a key piece towards a victory for us and Colorado State.
Pharaoh Compton, F, San Diego State ($4,300)
Compton carries a decent 23.4 percent usage rate, but his minutes are limited as he's only averaging 14.6. He's never earned less than 8.0 DKP, so we've got around a 2x floor and a value frontcourt option as a punt play. Compton has also reached 10-plus DKP over seven of 10. It's far more a game log play than a matchup-based one. Utah State at least holds solid rotational size, which could lead to an uptick in involvement for Compton to combat it.
