This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
There's no time of the year like March Madness, and for DFS players, there are finally some big payouts to play for. DraftKings is offering a $25k top prize in its CBB $100k Tourney Tip-Off, which features all 16 games on the Thursday slate (two are TBD based on play-ins).
Here at RotoWire, we'll be offering DFS college basketball articles for each day that features NCAA Tournament games and much of the NIT as well. Since there are quite a few new faces here this time of year, I first want to run down a few of the tools we offer here on RotoWire before getting into my recommendations.
The home base for most of our subscribers is our newly-redesigned DFS College Basketball Lineup Optimizer, but as any DFS player knows, an optimizer is only as good as how you use it. Sure, go ahead and give the default optimizer a spin, but if there's a play you're not confident in, we encourage using the red X to remove them from your player pool. Think our formula might overvalue a mid-major player whose stats are built on lower competition? Boom, trust your gut and eliminate them from the pool. This also works great with injured players who we're pretty sure will be out but don't know definitively yet, so they still have projections. You can also "like" a player to increase their projection by 20 percent, or manually change a projection to whatever you like.
If you agree with any of my recommendations below, use the padlock button to make sure they are featured in your lineup, or if mass entering, increase their minimum exposure percentage via the customizations menu. In addition to exposure, the "Customizations" menu at the top of the screen features a whole new assortment of options for variance, custom groups and more.
Another popular tool is the DFS Matchup Info page, where you can sort the games by implied total, as well as offensive/defensive efficiency stats calculated by our our developers behind the scenes. It's the perfect place to get started, as it will help you find out which games to target. Here's a sneak peek at what that page looks like for Thursday night:
Next up, our Advanced College Basketball Lineups page is a resource that's second to none. Here, you'll be able to view recent starters for each team in the player pool alongside salaries, with stats like minutes, usage and fantasy PPG included. It's perfect for researching the lesser-known mid-majors and gathering recent trends. You can also click on any team logo to navigate to a team-specific page, which shows usage from last year among other stats. Here's one for Gonzaga-McNeese, which has one of the tighter spreads among the projected high-scoring game:
Last but certainly not least, any DFS player knows that the best potential values are often created by injuries, so it's imperative to check out our College Basketball Injury Report, which you can filter by the DFS slate of your choice. Since it's a big opening night, I'll highlight the key injury situations to make note of for the main DraftKings slate:
Hunter Dickinson ($9,400) / Kevin McCullar ($7,800), Kansas
Both players missed the Big 12 tourney to rest and may not be needed against Samford. Dickinson (shoulder) seems more safe to play than McCullar, who has battled ongoing knee troubles since February. If both miss or are limited, the door is open for a smash spot for KJ Adams ($7,700), especially in a matchup against a Samford squad that plays at a top-15 tempo in the country (per KenPom).
Editor's Note (3/20): McCullar (knee) has been ruled out for the remainder of the NCAA Tournament.
Darrion Williams ($7,900) / Warren Washington ($5,600), Texas Tech
Williams missed the Big 12 Tournament loss to Houston, but the Red Raiders seem confident he'll play. I'm less sure about Washington, who hasn't suited up since Feb. 20 due to a foot injury. Robert Jennings has picked up starts in the latter's absence, but the minutes aren't always there. I'd be more included to look at usage leaders Pop Isaacs ($6,900) and Joe Toussaint ($6,100) in a favorable matchup.
-Hunter McIntosh ($5,600) is a game-time call with a knee injury. I'll probably stay away from that, as he's usually a sixth-man even when healthy.
-Aly Khalifa ($5,400) is expected to suit up for BYU, but if that changes course, expect boosts for Fousseyni Traore ($7,000 and Noah Waterman ($5,800).
-Tre Williams is out for Duquesne, and Fousseyni Drame ($5,500) should draw the start in a tempo-boosted matchup.
If you like what you see or just want to give these tools a try, head to rotowire.com/free for a free 48-hour trial. We won't ask for a credit card, and the trial simply expires at its conclusion. That also covers every other sport on the site.
Without further delay, let's jump into my favorite plays on the Tuesday college basketball slate.
Top Players
Riley Minix, G, Morehead State ($8,400)
Yes, Illinois is a solid team that likely wins running away, but defense isn't the Illini's strong suit. They check in at 93rd in defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and are one of the worst teams in the country at forcing turnovers. Minix has 39.0 DK points or greater in 11 of his last 12 games, so there's a stable floor here with a ceiling in the upper-50s. He'll likely play the whole game even in a blowout, so there's less risk than you'd typically get from the mid-major studs.
Enrique Freeman, F, Akron ($8,400)
More of a GPP play, but I wanted to work a top-tier forward in here. Freeman has just one game under 30 DK points all season (Nov. 21 vs. Drake) but is averaging 43.2 over his last five, which includes a 65.3-DK point effort int he MAC tournament against Ohio. Creighton has Ryan Kalkbrenner patrolling the paint, which will be a challenge, but the BlueJays also rank 282nd in the country in offensive rebounding rate. With 30 double-doubles already this year, don't shy away from the MAC Player of the Year.
Caleb Love, G, Arizona ($7,600)
Four games in a row under 26 DK points -- including a 5.0-point stinker against USC -- have brought Love's price down to a very reasonable $7,600. He's still the usage leader for an Arizona team with the day's highest implied total, however, with a ceiling approaching the 50s. Long Beach State ranks 262nd in the country in opponent 3-point percentage and 210th in KenPom's defensive efficiency metric. Even without a full minutes allotment, Love should be able to bounce back.
Ultimately, it's tough to play the superstars when minutes aren't guaranteed in lopsided matchups, so my goal is more balanced lineups. If you're doing mass entry, though, there's nobody in the top-10 players that looks like an obvious fade, outside of perhaps a banged-up Dickinson. It would also be wise to get some type of exposure to the high-priced Kentucky trio of Reed Sheppard ($8,800), Antonio Reeves ($8,000) and Robert Dillingham ($7,300).
Middle Tier
Dajuan Harris, G, Kansas ($6,800)
While the $25k top price is attractive, the money to be made in CBB DFS is from cash games, so here's one I like for your double-ups. Harris turns it up for the NCAA Tournament, as he had efforts of 31.8 and 27.5 DK points before last year's unceremonious exit. I mentioned all the Kansas injuries above, and that's led to Harris leading the way in usage rate over the team's last five games. Samford also checks in at No. 14 in KenPom's adjusted tempo rating, so it's a major pace boost for a Jayhawks team with the slate's third-highest implied total. I like Samford to keep this a bit closer than what Vegas suggests, which hopefully solidifies Harris's minutes.
Jack Gohlke, G, Oakland ($5,600)
This feels like a bit of a misprice, even for a bench player facing the toughest opponent he'll see all year. Gohlke plays starter minutes, however, and is coming off 34.8 and 29.5 DK point showings in the Horizon League tournament. Yes, Kentucky is a blue blood, but the Wildcats check in all the way down at 108 in KenPom's defensive efficiency. They also play at the 11th-fastest tempo, so Oakland should see more possessions. Similar logic could apply to DQ Cole ($5,300), who is more of a boom-or-bust option.
Fousseyni Drame, F, Duquesne ($5,500)
Already alluded to above, Duquense's Tre Williams is set to miss Thursday's opener, and it's been Drame who has so far picked up back-to-back starts in his absence. In those two games, Drame has put up 27.0 and 17.5 DK points, and the upcoming matchup is a BYU team that runs at a significantly faster pace than either VCU or St. Bonaventure. Scoring and usage marks for Drame aren't great, but there should still be opportunity to get enough boards for a shot at 4x.
Value Plays
Tre Mitchell, F, Kentucky ($5,400)
Mitchell's price has been as high as $8,400, but a shoulder injury forced him to miss nearly the entire month of February, and due to Kentucky's frontcourt depth, he's been used sparingly since his return. He did have his best fantasy day since January (17.75 DK) in Kentucky's SEC tournament exit against Texas A&M -- a sound rebounding team. I expect the fifth-year journeyman to see a big usage bump with the stakes much higher.
Justin Edwards, G/F, Kentucky ($5,200)
Edwards has been completely boom-or-bust this season, as the five-star freshman has never truly lived up to his top-5 recruiting ranking. Now, it's time to show NBA scouts what he has on the national stage. Edwards had 29.5 DK points in a tough SEC Tournament matchup against Tennessee, and not too long ago, had his breakout game with 43.3 DK points against a bad defense in Alabama. Big games are in there, and like Mitchell, this is a cheap way to get a piece of Kentucky.
A.J. Staton-McCray, G, Samford ($4,000)
We're obviously getting pretty risky down at this price tier. Staton-McCray started the first 27 games of the year for Samford, averaging 12.6 points and 4.9 rebounds with a 27.3 percent usage rate. He then missed four games with an undisclosed injury and has been eased into action since, peaking at 13.3 DK points in the Southern Conference final. If he gets anywhere close to his old role, there's tremendous potential here for the junior wing, who shouldn't be matched up against tough on-ball defender Dajuan Harris. If you're not on board with this selection, former high-major point guard Rylan Jones ($4,400) is a safer play, though he'll see more of Harris.
FanDuel Special
Kobe Elvis ($4,500 FD) & Koby Break ($4,700 FD), G, Dayton
Elvis is a starter who has the team's second-highest usage rate over their last five. Break is the team's sixth man who is averaging 31.5 mpg over his last five. Both are priced $1500 cheaper than they are on DraftKings, so pick your free square and open up flexibility elsewhere to put in the superstars.
Ty Rodgers, G, Illinois ($4,600 FD)
Priced $1300 cheaper than he is on DraftKings, Rodgers is coming off a bad game against Wisconsin due to foul trouble, but had 27+ in his previous two Big Ten tourney outings. It's a very affordable way to get a piece of the team with the fourth-highest implied total on the board.
Pelle Larsson, Arizona ($5,500 FD)
If you're not paying up for the Arizona stars, Larsson is an excellent ancillary-category producer and is priced $1300 less than on DraftKings. It's a perfect cash game piece that opens up other options.
