This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Conference action heats up on Friday night, as several more teams from the Big Ten and Big East clash for conference supremacy. Here are my predictions for three notable games on Friday evening.
Michigan State 
at Ohio State 
The Spartans posted excellent results through the first two months of the season. They won 11 of 13 games and collected wins over Colorado, North Carolina, and Nebraska. Their only two losses were against Kansas and Memphis, both at a neutral site, and both look like good bets to make the NCAA tournament. Michigan State is playing at a high level on both ends of the court, a possible contender if it can keep it up.
The Buckeyes are also playing like a team intent on dancing in March, although it will need more signature wins before that becomes a reality. Ohio State has top-tier wins over Texas and Kentucky, but it got blown out when playing against Texas A&M, Maryland, and Auburn.
On the surface, this matchup is incredibly close, although Michigan State does a couple of things particularly well that should help its odds of winning on Friday. First, the Spartans are among the best on the boards, ranking 25th in offensive rebounding percentage and fifth in defensive rebounding. This should come into play against Ohio State, as the Buckeyes aren't great at securing boards on either end, ranking 144th on defense and 254th on offense. Second, the Spartans are highly effective at drawing contact on offense, ranking 53rd in free-throw attempt rate. At the same time, the Buckeyes have had issues with fouling, ranking 289th in free-throw attempt rate allowed.
At the other end of the court, Ohio State's offense will face a stingy defensive team, one that ranks 18th in defensive efficiency and doesn't give up many easy baskets from anywhere. The Spartans are holding opponents to 47 percent on shots inside the arc and 30 percent beyond it, yielding an effective field goal percentage that ranks 43rd-best allowed. The Buckeyes have shown a penchant for getting to the charity stripe, 77th in free-throw attempt rate, but Michigan State has done a good job of defending without fouling, ranking 92nd in free-throw attempts allowed.
Overall, while this matchup is close to even, Michigan State has a few key advantages that should help it pull off the road win on Friday. I'm taking the Spartans in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Michigan State +1.5
Xavier 
at Georgetown
The Musketeers have already suffered five losses on the season, but don't let their record deceive you. This is still a tough team. Xavier has played a challenging schedule, ranking 120th in difficulty, and all of its losses came in games that would've qualified as a high-quality win, per KenPom. It's also worth noting that the Musketeers had a chance to win each of their last three games near the end of regulation. They lost by three points at Cincinnati, in overtime at Connecticut, and then most recently lost by two points to Marquette. Xavier rebounded from this three-game losing streak by dominating Seton Hall, 94-72, seemingly ready to begin a new winning streak since starting the season at 6-0.
The Hoyas, on the other hand, only have two losses, but there's a fair argument that its record is indeed deceiving. Georgetown played one of the easiest non-conference slates in the nation, ranking 356th in difficulty per KenPom, with only three of its games counting as an opportunity for a quality win. The Hoyas lost by double digits in their first opportunity at West Virginia, then more recently won at Syracuse and against Creighton (at home). The latter was by far Georgetown's best performance of the season, beating a respectable Creighton team by 24 points. The win was nice, but then we saw the other side of Georgetown in its next game, a one-point win at Seton Hall. The Pirates are in rough shape this season, so the fact that they had an opportunity to take a game-winning shot doesn't bode well for the Hoyas.
Despite playing a slate of opponents that don't give up easy baskets, 67th in defensive difficulty, Xavier has put up good offensive numbers so far. The Musketeers rank 39th in efficiency, 46th in effective field goal percentage, 109th in turnovers, and 58th in free-throw attempt rate. Perhaps their most impressive trait is their sharp shooting, making almost 41 percent of shots from beyond the arc, the sixth-highest mark in the nation. This is a valuable skill against any opponent, but it's even more important in a matchup with Georgetown. The Hoyas have stout interior defense, holding opponents to under 42 percent, the fifth-best mark allowed, but they're a bit looser on the perimeter, where they're allowing opponents to make almost 33 percent of three-pointers. They have good defensive numbers overall, ranking 45th in efficiency, although their raw numbers are a bit skewed due to their lack of competition so far.
Offensively, Georgetown has not played nearly as well. The Hoyas rank 107th in offensive efficiency and are awful at committing turnovers, 261st, and getting to the charity stripe, 341st in free throw attempt rate. They are only good in two areas, and it just so happens that they are the same two areas where the Musketeers are strong defensively. Georgetown is ranked 39th in offensive rebounding percentage and 49th in two-point field goal percentage, but Xavier is ranked 31st and 43rd on the defensive side of the same two categories. Xavier has gotten burned a couple of times when going against elite offensive teams, but it has otherwise played well, sitting at 77th in defensive efficiency.
After multiple years of living in the cellar of the Big East, Georgetown is finally back on track to being a competitive team. That said, this year's squad is still relatively unproven and has fallen flat in two of its more challenging games. Xavier has the second-highest overall efficiency rating among all the teams Georgetown has already faced, so I'm betting the Musketeers will find a way to get it done on the road. I'm taking Xavier.
College Basketball Best Bet: Xavier +1.5
Creighton 
at Marquette 
The Bluejays have won nine of 14 games to start the season, a respectable mark considering they've played an extremely challenging schedule, ranking 22nd in difficulty, per KenPom. Creighton has defeated some big names in Kansas, Villanova, and St. John's, although there's a small caveat in that all of these wins came at home. When traveling outside of their home arena, the Bluejays lost to San Diego State, Texas A&M, Alabama, and Georgetown, with the latter being their most disappointing game of the season, a 24-point loss. The biggest issue for Creighton going forward is the loss of star junior Pop Isaacs, who was arguably the team's most important offensive player before suffering a season-ending injury following the Kansas game.
The Golden Eagles also went through a gauntlet, ranking 17th in strength of schedule. Despite the rigorous schedule, they impressively only lost two games. Marquette has defeated Maryland, Purdue, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Xavier, with its only losses coming at Iowa State and Dayton. The Golden Eagles earned a two-seed in the last two NCAA tournaments, and this current squad appears hell-bent on repeating the same accomplishment, if not taking it one step higher.
Creighton has a decent offensive attack, ranking 62nd in efficiency, however, it has one major flaw. The Bluejays are among the sloppiest teams in the nation, ranking 296th in offensive turnover percentage and 348th in offensive steals. It's tough to score points with these traits, and it's even more difficult when facing one of the most ferocious defensive units in the nation. The Golden Eagles rank sixth in defensive turnover percentage and fourth in steals, making it extremely likely they will win the turnover margin and see a lot of fast break opportunities.
As good as Marquette defends, it's arguably better at scoring. The Golden Eagles rank 12th in offensive efficiency and have the third-best offensive turnover percentage among all D-1 teams. As it turns out, Creighton ranks almost dead last in the nation in causing turnovers, further cementing the likelihood that Marquette will have a positive turnover differential on Friday. Creighton ranks 41st in defensive efficiency, so it's still good at defending even though it doesn't generate much chaos.
Given Marquette's elite defense and the strong likelihood of winning the turnover margin, the Golden Eagles appear poised to defend their home court with a flourish. I'm laying the points with Marquette in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Marquette -9.5
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Michigan State +1.5
- Xavier +1.5
- Marquette -9.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
