This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
The fun continues on Saturday with Day 3 of March Madness lined up and ready to go. Here are my predictions for a trio of games on the Round-of-32 betting board.
McNeese State 
vs. Purdue 
The Boilermakers boast an elite offensive attack with the sixth-highest adjusted efficiency rating among all D-1 teams. This makes them a dangerous squad, though their defense is weak inside the paint allowing opponents to make over 56 percent of shots from inside the arc, which puts them at 348th in the nation. Purdue's not lackluster on the defensive glass at 170th in rebounding percentage, giving McNeese State another area they can exploit.
The Cowboys hold the 63rd-highest adjusted offensive efficiency rating thanks to playing at a high level in many important areas hitting 53 percent of two-point and 35 percent of three-point attempts while yielding the 80th-best effective field goal percentage. They tend to focus on inside scoring, with two-point shots accounting for almost 52 percent of their total offense. On a related note, McNeese State are consistently active on the glass with the 38th-highest offensive rebounding percentage. It's also worth noting they're secure with the ball at 118th in offensive turnover percentage. The latter is important as Purdue's defensive success stems from generating takeaways ranking 133rd in turnover percentage. This reliance is further underscored by KenPom data, which suggests their turnovers significantly correlate to production nearly to the same extent as the effective field goal percentage allowed. And that means Purdue's defense will clearly have its hands full on Saturday.
McNeese State will similarly face a challenge in stopping the opposing attack. But based on their defensive stats, they appear capable of handling the task with the 59th-best defensive efficiency rating and high marks in several other areas. They play an aggressive style of defense recording the 19th-highest turnover percentage among all D-1 sides while holding opponents to under 47 percent on shots inside the arc (32nd) and 32 percent beyond the arc (80th) while conceding the 36th-best effective field goal percentage. Purdue are outstanding when it comes to making shots sitting 16th in effective field goal percentage, yet they're much lower in other key areas like offensive rebounding (124th) and free-throw attempt rate (128th).
There's a chance Purdue's explosive offense can shoot its way past the spread, but ultimately I don't trust their defense to hold down McNeese State enough to cover the number. I went back and forth on this official pick, trying to decide between the Over (of 143.5) or the points with the underdog. I still like both sides, but with only one choice I have to take the points. Both teams prefer playing a more methodical style, with McNeese State ranking 278th in adjusted tempo and Purdue coming in at 303rd, so we'll likely have a smaller number of possessions. For these reasons, I'm taking the points with the Cowboys.
College Basketball Best Bet: McNeese State +5.5
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Michigan 
vs. Texas A&M 
The Wolverines nearly collapsed against UC San Diego on Thursday and narrowly survived largely due to their massive size advantage. The difficulty has turned up a notch Saturday as they again have to face an aggressive and excellent defense. However, this time, they won't enjoy the same advantage near the rim.
I picked against Michigan in the Round-of 64 due to their alarming offensive issues - specifically the 329th rank in turnover percentage and 349th in non-steal turnovers, making them arguably the sloppiest team remaining in the tournament. This nearly fatal flaw once again appeared against UCSD as the Wolverines committed 14 turnovers in what turned out to be a single-possession outcome. Michigan rank 46th in adjusted offensive efficiency rating despite this issue while overcoming the problem with tremendous production within the paint where they've made 58 percent of their two-point attempts - the 13th-highest mark in the country - alongside the 79th-best offensive rebounding percentage.
Those last two are valuable skills, though Texas A&M appear well-equipped to counter them with the nation's eighth-best adjusted defensive efficiency rating while excellent in many critical categories with the 55th-highest turnover percentage and 69th-best defensive rebounding percentage while holding opponents to the 62nd-best effective field goal percentage allowed. They're also particularly stout inside the arc as teams have barely made 47 percent, which is 27th-best. The latter is vital as Michigan have struggled from the perimeter the past couple of months by only making under 31 percent of three-point attempts - the second-worst mark during the Big Ten conference season.
The Wolverines often perform better at the other end of the court with the 13th-best adjusted defensive efficiency rating, yet they'll have a daunting task on Saturday. They excel at forcing difficult shots by limiting opponents to the 16th-best effective field goal percentage allowed, though it's significantly weaker in other key areas as they don't force takeaways sitting 269th in turnover and 332nd in steal percentages, but the more significant issue is their subpar numbers on the glass at 177th in defensive rebounding percentage. That may not seem terrible, but Texas A&M have led the nation in offensive rebounding percentage for two straight years. They aren't the sharpest shooters, yet any opposing team that isn't strong on the glass is instantly playing an uphill battle. Even with the lackluster shooting numbers, Texas A&M rank 45th in adjusted offensive efficiency with their exceptional ability to find second-chance opportunities and get to the charity stripe (17th-highest free-throw attempt rate).
Michigan have proven itself to be a gritty and relentless team, though I firmly believe their well-documented turnover problem will eventually cause its undoing. I'm betting Texas A&M's suffocating defense will get the job done. I'm taking the Aggies.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas A&M -2.5
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UCLA 
vs. Tennessee
This pick is all about Tennessee's offense and how it matches up against UCLA's defense.
The Bruins are known for their elite defense under head coach Mick Cronin with the 15th-best adjusted efficiency rating in the nation, but it should be noted most of their success stems from causing turnovers at seventh in D-1 for turnover percentage. However, they don't come close to having a similar mark in any other area ranking 130th in effective field goal percentage allowed, 164th in defensive rebounding, and 209th in free-throw attempt rate. In contrast, Tennessee's offense is solid across the board sitting top-110 across all those categories, including 29th in offensive rebounding. The Bruins are also not as strong in the paint as one might imagine as Big Ten opponents made almost 54 percent of two-point attempts, which put them 12th in the league. The D-1 average for two-point field goals is 51, making this a legitimate area of concern. The Volunteers hold the nation's 17th-highest adjusted offensive efficiency rating, so their scoring abilities shouldn't be overlooked. And they've already defeated Texas A&M, Florida, and Auburn, all teams with a better defensive efficiency rating than UCLA.
Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes has transformed the program into a defensive juggernaut, and this year's team has admirably upheld the tradition. The current squad carries the country's third-best adjusted defensive efficiency rating, which would give them their fifth consecutive season with an adjusted defensive rating in the top-5. The Vols force as many difficult shots as any other team by holding opponents to under 47 percent on two-point attempts (26th) and 28 on three-point attempts (fourth) to give them the third-best effective field goal percentage allowed. They also list the fifth-highest block percentage, further reinforcing their physical presence. Tennessee don't rank quite as high in turnovers (125th) or rebounding (206th), but this is still a top-3 defensive side any way you look at it. UCLA's offense, meanwhile, comes in at 35th in adjusted efficiency rankings. The Bruins' most obvious offensive weakness lies at the charity stripe where they made under 71 percent (231st). Otherwise, they don't have any major areas of concern, though they don't have any significant strengths either in the top-100 overall in effective field goal percentage, turnovers, and offensive rebounding.
UCLA's defense held up against some of the best offensive teams in the nation, but the same can't be said for their offense. The Bruins competed against four teams with a top-20 adjusted defensive efficiency rating and lost three of four, each by at least eight points. Given Tennessee's world-class defense and their offensive rebounding advantage, I like their odds of pulling away in the second half. I'm laying the points with the Vols.
College Basketball Best Bet: Tennessee -4.5
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Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- McNeese State +5.5
- Texas A&M -2.5
- Tennessee -4.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
