This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
In what is now a multi-year tradition, RotoWire's NBA experts are graciously handed (a fake) $1,000 to invest in their favorite futures bets. See what they came up with below:
Alex Barutha's Bets
$250 -- Jalen Brunson, Most Improved Player (+2400, FanDuel)
This hitting would return a cool $6,000, and it's among my favorite bets of the season. Away from the league-leading usage of Luka Doncic, Brunson should thrive in the spotlight of New York. I think he has upside to average around 25 and 8, which would put him firmly in the All-Star discussion. If the Knicks can rattle off wins in the mid-40s, that helps even more.
$150 -- Jayson Tatum, Most Valuable Player (+1200, DraftKings)
Coming off a Finals run, Tatum should have more confidence than ever, and he's in the perfect age range (24) to leap into superstardom. Coach Ime Udoka's suspension creates an air of uncertainty around the Celtics' season. Tatum rising above that and carrying Boston as an elite two-way forward is a grand narrative.
$150 -- Malcolm Brogdon, Sixth Man of the Year (+1100, BetMGM)
I'm concerned about Brogdon's inability to stay healthy, but I think he could still get this award while playing 60-65 games. Brogdon has flashed near-All-Star numbers in the past in a starting role for the Pacers, and there will be plenty of nights that he's Boston's third option behind Tatum and Brown. I understand the line is skewed because of Brogdon's injury history, and Jordan Poole (+450, FanDuel) is a very legitimate favorite, but I still like the 11-to-1 value.
$125 - Warriors to win the NBA Title (+700, FanDuel)
The Warriors looked dominant Tuesday against the Lakers -- not a surprise -- but it was a great reminder about the upside the young role players have on Golden State. Jordan Poole could average 28 points on a bad team; Jonathan Kuminga is a sick athlete that knows the system; James Wiseman's length alone gives him ridiculous potential. If those three can really find a groove this season, their combination with the Big 3 will be absurd. They're the most trustworthy team in the West.
$100 -- 76ers to win the NBA Title (+1500, DraftKings)
Maybe I'm a sucker, but this team is immensely talented. Although, Opening Night was a bad showing. Joe Mazzulla out-coached Doc Rivers. At some point, I think they'll figure it out -- or get a new coach. A team with Joel Embiid, James Harden and Tyrese Maxey with a deep bench should win 55 games. I do think playoff basketball suits them more since they aren't a pace-friendly team and are more comfortable in the halfcourt on both sides of the ball. 15-to-1 odds are just too long for me to ignore.
$75 -- Nuggets over 50.5 wins (-130, DraftKings)
This team won 48 games last season while getting nine games from Michael Porter Jr. and zero games from Jamal Murray -- the Nuggets' second- and third-best players. That alone should vault this team closer to 55 wins.
$75 -- Pelicans over 44.5 wins (-120, PointsBet)
New Orleans won 36 games last year, but they were awful to start the year and picked things up later. Brandon Ingram only played 55 games, and Devonte' Graham saw the third-most total minutes on the team. That's not a recipe for success. This revamped Pelicans team with CJ McCollum and a healthy Zion Williamson has tons of upside. Plus, the bench is deep with trustworthy players.
$75 -- Cavaliers over 46.5 wins (-125, BetMGM)
Cleveland won 44 games last year (getting just 56 games from Jarrett Allen!) and essentially replaced Lauri Markkanen with Donovan Mitchell. Add that to another year of development from Evan Mobley and Darius Garland, and this team has real upside.
Nick Whalen's Bets
$200: 76ers to win the NBA title (15/1 at DraftKings)
The top of the Eastern Conference is loaded once again, so it'll be another dogfight between Philly, Miami, Boston and Milwaukee, while Brooklyn lurks as perhaps the biggest ceiling/floor team in the league. With that in mind, it's difficult to choose a definitive favorite, but I think the Sixers are the best value bet.
I do think Milwaukee has a slightly higher floor, and the Celtics have already proven they're a Finals-caliber team, but at 15/1 there's significant value in backing Joel Embiid and an (allegedly) re-focused James Harden. Admittedly, betting on Harden in the playoffs isn't often profitable, but Philly has enough depth all over the roster to help pick up the slack.
$100: Cade Cunningham Most Improved Player (38/1 at FanDuel)
With so much young talent around the league, the field of candidates for this award is stacked with big names. Anthony Edwards (+850) is the rightful favorite, but if I'm looking for better odds I'm going all the way down to Cunningham at 38/1. Historically, players tend to win this award in Year 3 or Year 4, so maybe I'm a year early, but it's not completely unprecedented for a sophomore to win it. Look, if Monta Ellis can do it, so can Cade Cunningham.
Cunningham came on strong during the second half of his rookie campaign, averaging 21.1 points, 6.5 assists, 5.7 rebounds and 1.1 steals after the All-Star break. However, his season-long numbers were weighed down by a slow start, so if he takes a sizable statistical leap in Year 2 – as anticipated – then the difference in production from Year 1 to Year 2 could appear even larger.
$100: Keegan Murray Rookie of the Year (+550 at DraftKings)
Chet Holmgren's injury leaves a void in the 2022 rookie class, but the Rookie of the Year race between Murray, Paolo Banchero, Jabari Smith, Jaden Ivey and Bennedict Mathurin should be hotly contested. I do like Banchero at +180, but for better value I'm willing to pivot to Murray, who's been consistently impressive from Summer League all the way through the preseason.
He may not have quite as high of a statistical ceiling as Banchero, but Murray projects to play big minutes on what could be a surprisingly decent Kings team. Chances are, Banchero will have the better raw numbers, but if the Kings are able to push for a playoff spot, momentum could swing Murray's way.
$100: Charlotte Hornets UNDER 33.5 wins (-115 at PointsBet)
James Anderson and I hammered this under on our Eastern Conference Win Totals Over/Under podcast, and since that recording I only feel better about it. Lamelo Ball will likely miss some time to begin the season, and at this point it feels unlikely that Miles Bridges will be back on the court anytime soon. Charlotte has just enough talent to remain in the dreaded what's the plan here? zone in the Eastern Conference, but it's easy to envision the Hornets getting off to a slow start and perhaps taking some not-so-subtle steps to improve their odds at landing Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson in the 2023 NBA Draft. Even if that's not the case, this roster simply might not be good enough to approach 35 wins in a deep conference.
$200: Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 45.5 wins (-125 at DraftKings)
We're ponying up one-fifth of our budget on the Lakers underachieving for a third straight season. While there is still hope that some sort of bailout trade will emerge before February, this Lakers roster, as currently constructed, is nowhere near good enough to contend for a top-four seed in the West – let alone the NBA title.
Once again, the Lakers' hopes are pinned directly on LeBron James and Anthony Davis, both of whom are significant injury liabilities at this point in their careers. But even if James and Davis are miraculously able to stay healthy, the supporting cast around them is extremely uninspiring. Barring a Lonnie Walker or Kendrick Nunn breakout, the Lakers appear destined for another middling season in which they're scratching and clawing to avoid the play-in tournament.
$100: Joe Mazzulla Coach of the Year (14/1 at PointsBet)
Betting Coach of the Year odds before the season is always interesting to me because it forces you to craft a narrative. I can see the case for Chris Finch, and I think he's the rightful co-favorite at most books alongside Taylor Jenkins. I can also see the case for both Ty Lue (13/1) and Mike Malone (14/1), but Mazzulla's narrative is the most compelling.
As the replacement for Ime Udoka, Mazzulla inherits the odds-on title favorite and one of the deepest rosters in the league. Possible Finals hangover aside, there's no reason Boston should be any worse than last season, and it's completely conceivable that they could improve their regular-season record. Keep in mind, this team was 25-25 at the 50-game mark a year ago. If the Celtics can hang around near the top of the Eastern Conference and add a few wins to their total (they were 51-31 last season), it's easy to envision the Joe Mazzulla deserves a ton of credit for keeping this team on track narrative developing.
$100: Joel Embiid to win Most Valuable Player (+650 at DraftKings)
Sometimes, the NBA is a wait-your-turn league. That mantra can apply to winning titles, as well as the MVP award. In years past, we've seen this play out with players like LeBron James, Kobe Bryant and James Harden, who logged multiple top-five finishes before finally capturing their first MVP.
Likewise, Embiid has been circling the MVP award for the last few years, and he's finished second in voting behind Nikola Jokic in each of the last two seasons. It's been 30-plus years since we've had a three-peat MVP, so Jokic is a virtual cross-off this season.
That's part of the reason it feels like the momentum could shift toward Embiid, who garnered 26 percent of the first-place votes a year ago. The Sixers should once again be a very good regular season team, and Embiid is unquestionably their best and most-important player. Health will always be a concern for the big man, although with most stars around the league cutting back on their game count, Embiid's built-in load management is not as much of a hindrance as it once was. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic and Jayson Tatum, among others, should make this a compelling race, but I view the MVP award as Embiid's to lose.
$100: Minnesota Timberwolves to win the Northwest Division (+155 at FanDuel)
It's often difficult to find value in division winner bets, but getting Minnesota at plus money feels like a steal. For one, this division will be a two-team race. Portland will be better with Damian Lillard back, but they're not a true threat. Neither are the Thunder or Jazz, obviously, who will likely end up battling it out for a spot in the bottom three.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets should be improved with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. returning, but Murray still appears to be gaining confidence in his surgically repaired knee, while Porter's back will likely be a massive liability for the remainder of his career. If things break right for Denver, they could easily win the division, but I think the addition of Rudy Gobert – coupled with another year of progression for Anthony Edwards – will help make Minnesota an extremely good regular season team. And most importantly in today's championship-or-bust NBA, the Timberwolves are the type of franchise that will make a concerted effort to win as many regular-season games as they can.
Jason Shebilske's Bets
Sportsbook Used: FanDuel
$250 on Giannis Antetokounmpo to win MVP (+700)
Antetokounmpo has gone two years without winning MVP, but he finished third in voting last year while netting nine of the 100 first-place votes. His numbers on the boards have decreased slightly over the past two years compared to his back-to-back MVP campaigns. However, he's still been incredibly consistent and should see increased usage over the first few weeks of the season with Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton unavailable. As long as Antetokounmpo can lead the Bucks to some early wins in the loaded Eastern Conference, he should put himself firmly in the mix to reclaim the MVP award.
$350 on Rudy Gobert to win Defensive Player of the Year (+400)
Marcus Smart won Defensive Player of the Year last season, but Gobert is the favorite for the award heading into the 2022-23 campaign after claiming the honor in three of the last five years. After averaging a career-high 14.7 rebounds per game over 66 appearances with the Jazz last season, his boards may decrease slightly now that he'll be playing alongside Karl-Anthony Towns in Minnesota's frontcourt. However, Gobert should still have plenty of chances to showcase his defensive abilities and is in a prime position to take home some hardware if he can help improve the Timberwolves' defensive rankings.
$200 on Malcolm Brogdon to win Sixth Man of the Year (+1600)
Brogdon has longer odds to win an award than some of the other players I'm selecting, but I think that the 29-year-old will still have a chance to make an impact despite the bench role he'll take on with the Celtics this year. He's dealt with some injuries over the last two seasons but has still been a strong contributor across the board while serving exclusively as a starter. Brogdon's bench role could help his durability, and he'll have an opportunity to provide a spark on a talented roster that's coming off an Eastern Conference title.
$200 on the Los Angeles Clippers to win the NBA Finals (+700)
The Clippers have steadily improved their roster over the last several seasons, and they finally seem ready to put things together during the 2022-23 campaign since both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are healthy ahead of the regular season. The duo led the Clippers to the Western Conference Finals during the 2020-21 campaign before Leonard suffered a torn ACL during Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals, and the team still managed to take the second-seed Suns to six games in the Western Conference Finals without Leonard. Los Angeles also added John Wall to the fold during the offseason, improving the already strong starting lineup. There's less parity in the Western Conference this year, and this could be the year that the Clippers finally make it to the NBA Finals and take home their first championship.
