NBA Fantasy Postseason Draft Guide

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Published on May 19, 2021

With the NBA wrapping up the regular season, it's time to turn our attention toward the postseason. First, we have the play-in tournament, which returns with a refreshed format for Year 2 after debuting as part of the NBA bubble in Orlando.

Whether you're playing in a draft-and-hold league or one that allows for a new roster at the start of each round, we've got you covered. The following rankings are intended for leagues that allow for few, if any, transactions throughout the postseason – that is, the players you draft before the playoffs begin are who you're stuck with the rest of the way. With that in mind, projecting games played, and series results, is a key factor.

These rankings don't aim to predict what will happen over the next two months, but they're tilted in favor of teams that project to progress further – especially those with favorable matchups in Round 1.

Rather than simply ranking each fantasy-relevant player, we opted to divide the pool into a series of tiers. Within each tier, players are sorted in order of value, but the difference between, say, the third and sixth player in a given tier is not overly significant.

The tiers can also be adapted to leagues like the NFBKC's Postseason contest, which employs its own unique set of rules. Rather than a traditional draft, the league operates like one giant pool, where each manager selects a new team at the start of each round.

Note: We've included players whose teams are part of the play-in tournament, and the rankings will be updated throughout the week to reflect those results.

TIER 1: POTENTIAL NO. 1 OVERALL PICKS

Superstars whose teams have a good chance to make the NBA Finals.

Joel Embiid, 76ers

A top-two MVP candidate who could average 30-and-10 into the Finals. As the one seed, the Sixers benefit from avoiding both Milwaukee and Brooklyn until the Conference Finals.

Kevin Durant, Nets

Durant is the best player on the team with the best odds to win the Finals. He has playoff career averages of 29.1 points, 7.7 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.2 blocks and 1.0 steals.

James Harden, Nets

The Nets should cruise through Round 1, and while a Round 2 matchup against Milwaukee won't be easy, Brooklyn is the odds-on title favorite for a reason. Harden should rack up monster assists numbers while also providing his usual value in points, rebounds, steals and three-pointers.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks

While a first-round matchup against Miami is less-than-ideal, to say the least, this time around, the Bucks should be prepared to counter the Heat's attack. It'll be a tough road to the Finals, but this Bucks roster is much better constructed for playoff success.

Kawhi Leonard, Clippers

Over his past 49 playoff games, Leonard has averaged 29.2 points, 8.8 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 1.8 steals. The Clippers should handle Dallas in Round 1, and by virtue of falling to fourth in the West, the Clippers will likely avoid the Lakers until the Conference Finals.

Paul George, Clippers

Fantasy managers can probably have George at a discount after a disappointing playoff showing in the bubble last season. But if the Clippers can put it all together, he could end up being one of the top values on the board.

LeBron James, Lakers

There's a legitimate chance the Lakers could fall to Utah or Phoenix in Round 1, but betting against James in the postseason has proven to be a foolish decision. Still, the combination of injury concerns and the Lakers' difficult path through the West knocks James' stock down a bit. But if you're a staunch believer in the Lakers, taking James No. 1 overall isn't out of the question.

Anthony Davis, Lakers

Whether it's the Jazz or the Suns, the Lakers will face a difficult test right away, but they'll be favored to advance against either opponent. Davis started to look more like his old self as the Lakers finished out the regular season with five straight wins.

TIER 2: ESTABLISHED STARS ON GREAT TEAMS

Players with high statistical upside and a good chance to advance to at least the Conference Finals.

Kyrie Irving, Nets

Irving isn't the superstar that Kevin Durant and James Harden are, but he's gotten plenty of playoff experience and will be relied upon as a third option. He's averaged 24 points and 5 assists in the playoffs for his career.

Khris Middleton, Bucks

Milwaukee's path to the Finals is treacherous, but Middleton has proven he can raise his game in the playoffs.

Rudy Gobert, Jazz

If the Jazz can dodge the Lakers in Round 1, Gobert and Donovan Mitchell can begin to sketch out their path to the Conference Finals.

Donovan Mitchell, Jazz

By the time Round 1 begins, Mitchell will have gone more than a month without playing, but as the best player on the top-seeded team in the West, he can only fall so far.

Ben Simmons, 76ers

Has put up playoff numbers similar to his regular-season stats despite being an awkward fit with Joel Embiid at the end of games. A constant threat for 15-10-10 with a couple steals and blocks.

Jrue Holiday, Bucks

When it comes to assessing the Bucks, it all comes down to answering the question: Can they beat Brooklyn in Round 2? If you think the answer is "yes," then Holiday, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo all see major bumps in value.

Tobias Harris, 76ers

Has averaged 16-9-4 with the 76ers in the playoffs over the past two seasons. Could be a go-to option for Philadelphia in games where Joel Embiid is struggling offensively.

Chris Paul, Suns

Paul is essentially in the same boat as Mitchell. Avoid the Lakers in Round 1, and it could be (relatively) smooth sailing to the Conference Finals. But if the Lakers get the seventh seed, Phoenix could be in deep trouble.

Devin Booker, Suns

See above. The potential matchups cause concern, but Booker is the go-to scorer for the Western Conference contender with the fewest red flags.

TIER 3: ESTABLISHED STARS ON GOOD TEAMS

High-risk, high-reward players who could advance deep into the playoffs or lose in Round 1.

Nikola Jokic, Nuggets

He's the MVP of the league and the wire-to-wire No. 1 player in fantasy, but without Jamal Murray, there's a real chance the Nuggets could get bounced in Round 1.

Damian Lillard, Trail Blazers

Nuggets-Blazers is essentially a toss-up, so deciding between Lillard and Jokic should come down to which team you think has the best chance to advance.

Luka Doncic, Mavericks

Like Jokic, Doncic is a one-man show who could average a triple-double across an entire series. But with Kristaps Porzingis' health constantly in question and a shaky supporting cast, the Mavs will face an uphill battle to get past the Clippers in Round 1.

Julius Randle, Knicks

The presumed Most Improved Player could end as a top-five finisher in MVP voting. However, these are his first playoffs, and the Knicks are unlikely to make it past the second round.

Jimmy Butler, Heat

One of the most productive all-around players in the league, Butler's production speaks for itself. The question is: Can Miami pull off the upset over Milwaukee for the second year in a row?

Bam Adebayo, Heat

Averaged 18-10-4 in last season's playoffs and could easily do the same this season.

Michael Porter Jr., Nuggets

The Nuggets lucked out in avoiding the Clippers in Round 1, but Portland won't be a pushover. Since Jamal Murray went down, Porter has been a top-15 player in fantasy leagues.

Trae Young, Hawks

This will be the first playoffs of Young's career. Atlanta has a deep roster, but the offense is still heliocentric around him. He's averaged 28 points and 9 assists over the past two seasons.

Clint Capela, Hawks

Atlanta has a favorable matchup against the Knicks in Round 1, but with Philadelphia likely looming in Round 2, Capela's ceiling may not be too high.

John Collins, Hawks

Collins' role hasn't been as big this season, but he's still a threat for 20 and 10 on any given night.

CJ McCollum, Trail Blazers

Like Lillard, McCollum's upside comes down to whether Portland can take care of the Jamal Murray-less Nuggets in Round 1.

TIER 4: HIGH-UPSIDE LONGSHOTS

Star, or even superstar, players capable of elite production but likely to be eliminated early.

Stephen Curry, Warriors

The scoring champ has single-handedly dragged the Warriors into the play-in tournament, but Golden State will be a major underdog against either Utah or Phoenix.

Russell Westbrook, Wizards

The Wizards still have to play their way into the postseason, but assuming they emerge from the play-in, they'll be massive underdogs against Philadelphia. Even so, Westbrook should provide four or five games worth of his usual, mind-boggling counting stats.

Bradley Beal, Wizards

First, the Wizards need to secure the eighth seed. But even if they do, a monster challenge will await in Round 1. Beal should put up huge scoring numbers, though fantasy managers shouldn't count on him playing more than five games.

Kristaps Porzingis, Mavericks

Health is always a concern for Porzingis, and with the Mavs matching up against Kawhi and Paul George in Round 1, they could be set for a second consecutive first-round exit.

Jayson Tatum, Celtics

With Jaylen Brown sidelined, the Celtics are firmly Tatum's team to lead, but chances are it will be a quick exit in Round 1. But as demonstrated in the play-in game, he's a 50-point game waiting to happen.

TIER 5: LOWER-RISK STARTERS

Players who are likely to offset their lower statistical output with a higher number of total games played.

Jusuf Nurkic, Trail Blazers

With a toss-up first-round matchup, Nurkic is inherently risky, but he's rounded into form in recent weeks. If Portland ousts Denver, Nurkic will likely be a big reason why.

Deandre Ayton, Suns

Ayton is a nightly double-double threat, but he's the third option, at best, for a Suns team that could draw LeBron and Anthony Davis right out of the gate.

Mike Conley, Jazz

As is the case with all Jazz players, Conley's upside will be determined by whether or not Utah draws the Lakers in Round 1. Either way, though, a Round 2 matchup against the Clippers likely awaits.

Jordan Clarkson, Jazz

The likely Sixth Man of the Year made a major leap this season, but he doesn't provide a ton of value outside of points and three-pointers.

Mikal Bridges, Suns

Defense is Bridges' calling card, but he shot a career-best 42.5 percent from three-point range this season. If the Suns make a run to the Conference Finals, Bridges will be a major reason why.

Brook Lopez, Bucks

Again, the Bucks' path out of the Eastern Conference won't be easy, but Lopez is an integral starter for a team with Finals potential.

Joe Harris, Nets

The sharpshooter is dealing with a strained glute but should be fine for the start of Round 1. His impact is reduced when all three of Durant, Harden and Irving are healthy, but Harris is one of the safer role players to target.

Seth Curry, 76ers

Like Harris, Curry is far from the engine of the offense, but he fills a key role for a team that will likely have the friendliest road to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Dennis Schroder, Lakers

Schroder carries the same caveats as James and Davis, as far as facing a more-difficult-than-usual opponent in Round 1. The Lakers will be tested, but Schroder's upside is worth the potential risk.

Bojan Bogdanovic, Jazz

The Jazz are the top seed for a reason, and while they may not be a traditional juggernaut, they're certainly capable of making a deep run. Bogdanovic's scoring can be streaky, but he ended the regular season averaging 23.4 points on 49/42/91 shooting over his final 19 games.

TIER 6: ROLE PLAYERS WITH UPSIDE

Good-not-great players whose teams have a chance to advance past at least Round 1.

Bogdan Bogdanovic, Hawks

The way Bogdanovic has played since the All-Star break, there's a case to be made that he belongs in a higher tier. But the Hawks could lose to the Knicks in Round 1, and even if they advance, a matchup against top-seeded Philly will await.

Tyler Herro, Heat

It's been an up-and-down second season for the Kentucky product, but Herro played well down the stretch. As he demonstrated in the bubble, Herro is capable of heating up and swinging a series.

Goran Dragic, Heat

In the bubble, there were times when Dragic was Miami's most important player. He hasn't had the same impact in 2020-21, but he's worth a look later in fantasy drafts with the hope that the Heat can eliminate the Bucks for a second straight playoffs.

Andre Drummond, Lakers

Drummond ended the season with four straight double-doubles and appears to have settled into a consistent role alongside Anthony Davis. The big man doesn't need a heavy workload to put up monster rebounding totals.

Kyle Kuzma, Lakers

Few players run as hot and as cold as Kuzma, but he's an integral piece for the defending champions when he's locked in.

RJ Barrett, Knicks

Barrett emerged as the Knicks' second-best player this season, and for New York to make it to Round 2, he'll need to have a big series against Atlanta.

Blake Griffin, Nets

He's no longer an All-NBA-caliber player, but Griffin started the Nets' final six games and should have a free pass to the second round, at the absolute least.

Robert Covington, Trail Blazers

His offense has been extremely hit or miss (literally) this season, but Covington is one of only three players (Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond) who've averaged over a steal and a block per game in each of the last three seasons.

TIER 7: SHORT-TERM FLYERS

Draft with the assumption that they'll only last one round -- anything beyond that is a major bonus.

Domantas Sabonis, Pacers

Sabonis carries all the caveats of the other play-in participants, but if Indiana captures the eighth seed, he'll be worth a later-round pick for his huge points-rebounds-assists potential.

Marcus Smart, Celtics

It certainly feels like Boston is poised to go out with a whimper against the loaded Nets in Round 1. Smart should see big minutes for as many games as Boston can stay alive, however.

Robert Williams, Celtics

A sore knee and turf toe kept Williams out of 12 of the Celtics' final 17 games. When healthy, he's one of the league's best per-minute fantasy players, but there's a good chance he won't be at 100 percent for most of the first round.

Draymond Green, Warriors

Still a nightly triple-double threat, Green may not have the same long-term upside as in years past, but he'll provide strong rebounds, assists and defensive numbers.