We have a modest four-game slate on tap Thursday, and two of the eight teams will be playing on the back end of a back-to-back set. Additionally, we have a host of big names on the injury report, so there are plenty of value plays that could provide viable.
Slate Overview
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Listed spreads/totals are from FanDuel Sportsbook and current as of Thursday, Nov. 20 @1:00 a.m. ET:
Los Angeles Clippers at Orlando Magic (-5.5) (O/U: 218.5)
*Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies (-2.5) (O/U: 234.5)
*Philadelphia 76ers (-2) at Milwaukee Bucks (O/U: 226.5)
Atlanta Hawks at San Antonio Spurs (-1) (O/U: 230.5)
* Denotes team on second night of back-to-back set
While the four-game ledger combined with the multiple major injuries does limit our player pool, we at least have an encouraging betting outlook. All four games are projected to be very competitive – partly the result of the big-name absences – and projected totals are also suggesting we could see plenty of rewarding individual performances.
Injury Situations to Monitor
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report.
Victor Wembanyama, SAN (calf): OUT
In Wemby's absence Luke Kornet and Kelly Olynyk are likely to handle the majority of center minutes, while De'Aaron Fox and Devin Vassell will be among those primed for the biggest bumps in usage considering Stephon Castle is also sidelined due to a hip injury.
Ja Morant, MEM (calf): OUT
In Morant's absence, Vince Williams and Cam Spencer should handle the majority of point-guard minutes, while Jaylen Wells, Zach Edey and Cedric Coward should also see boosts in usage considering Jaren Jackson is expected to be sidelined as well.
Paolo Banchero, ORL (groin): OUT
In Banchero's absence, Tristan da Silva is likely to continue starting at power forward and Franz Wagner will have even more opportunity than usual.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL (groin): OUT
In Antetokounmpo's absence, Bobby Portis could move into the starting power forward role, while Ryan Rollins, Kyle Kuzma and Myles Turner should all be primed for significant increases in usage.
Joel Embiid, PHI (knee): QUESTIONABLE
If Embiid remains out, Andre Drummond should continue operating in the starting center role, while Tyrese Maxey should continue seeing increased usage.
Other notable injuries:
Stephon Castle, SAN (hip): OUT
Trae Young, ATL (knee): OUT
Kawhi Leonard, LAC (foot/ankle): OUT
Kelly Oubre, PHI (knee): OUT
Jaren Jackson, MEM (ankle): DOUBTFUL
Domantas Sabonis, SAC (knee): GTD
Kristaps Porzingis, ATL (knee): QUESTIONABLE
Zaccharie Risacher, ATL (hip): QUESTIONABLE
Paul George, PHI (knee): PROBABLE
Elite Players
We have one player with a five-figure salary that has a chance to play on Thursday's slate: Tyrese Maxey ($10,100).
Maxey has eclipsed 50 FD points in four of the last six games and fell just short of doing it on a fifth occasion Wednesday, and he could be taking the floor without Joel Embiid again Thursday.
Expected Chalk
Other likely chalk plays include:
Jalen Johnson, ATL ($9,800)
Johnson continues to see elevated usage in the ongoing absence of Trae Young (knee) and has scored 45 to 88.6 FD points in his last five contests, numbers that should lock in a high roster rate Tuesday.
James Harden, LAC ($9,600)
Harden will continue to take the floor without Kawhi Leonard on Thursday and has scored 47.7 to 80.3 FD points in four of the last five games, which should keep him very popular Thursday.
De'Aaron Fox, SAN ($8,600)
Fox has picked up the pace with scores of 38.7 to 51.8 FD points in his last three games, partly a byproduct of the ongoing absences of Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle.
Andre Drummond, PHI ($7,200)
If Joel Embiid remains out Thursday, Drummond should be very popular given he's scored 32.6 to 40.4 FD points in four of his last five games while operating as a starter.
Desmond Bane, ORL ($7,100)
Bane is a beneficiary of Paolo Banchero's ongoing absence, and he's seen a notable increase in production with averages of 22.4 points, 5.2 assists, 4.8 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 37.2 FD points in his last five games.
Key Values
DeMar DeRozan, SAC at MEM ($6,400)
DeRozan has partly fallen victim to the malaise surrounding the Kings, who enter Thursday with a 3-12 record after Wednesday's loss to the Thunder. However, the veteran is still averaging 31.2 FD points per contest, and he's scored 40.4 and 36.1 in his last pair of contests. That snapped a seven-game stretch where DeRozan averaged a relatively ordinary (by his standards) 25.1 FD points, and Thursday, he'll face a significantly short-handed Grizzlies team that's allowed 48.3 percent shooting over the last three games and that he eclipsed 42 FD points against in two of three games last season.
Keldon Johnson, SAN vs. ATL ($5,100)
Multiple Spurs players will have significantly enhanced opportunity as a result of the absences of Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle, and Johnson certainly qualifies. The veteran forward continues in a second-unit role, but he's averaging 23.6 FD points per contest and posted 33.4 across 30 minutes against the Grizzlies on Tuesday with both his star teammates out. Johnson also delivered 29.9 against the Kings on Sunday with just Wemby out of the lineup, and Thursday, he's facing a Hawks squad allowing 41.9 FD points per game to small forwards and surrendering 50.4 percent shooting overall in its last three games.
Vince Williams, MEM vs. SAC ($4,700)
Williams is set for a multi-game run as the starting point guard in the absence of Ja Morant, and he already began delivering strong returns with that role in his first game against the Spurs on Tuesday. Williams tallied 37.3 FD points in 30 minutes in that contest while coming just a rebound and assist short of a triple-double, and he could be primed for even more usage Thursday since Jaren Jackson is also doubtful for the game. Then, the Kings check in ranked No. 28 in offensive efficiency rating surrendered to point guards (31.4) and have allowed 52.5 FD points per contest to the position, and Sacramento is also conceding the fifth-most assists per game (28.9).
ALSO CONSIDER: Cedric Coward, MEM vs. SAC ($5,600); Harrison Barnes, SAN vs. ATL ($4,400)
