This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
We have one of our smallest slates in quite some time Thursday, with only two games on the docket. There's an inherent challenge in a player pool of that size, but it's further compounded by one especially large spread and a couple of key injuries. Nevertheless, we press on, as there are always edges and strong plays to discover and deploy in DFS.
Slate Overview
For the latest spreads and over/unders, visit RotoWire's NBA Odds page. There, you can also find player props, futures, picks articles and sportsbook bonus codes.
Listed spreads/totals are from FanDuel Sportsbook and current as of Thursday, 3/28 @11:00 a.m. ET:
Boston Celtics (-16) at *Atlanta Hawks (O/U: 226.0)
Milwaukee Bucks (-1) at New Orleans Pelicans (O/U: 224.0)
*denotes team on second night of back-to-back set
There could hardly be a bigger disparity between the two betting lines Thursday, and that could naturally make the players from the Bucks-Pelicans matchup even more heavily rostered than they already would be on a two-game slate. The one saving grace may be that the Celtics' big names are always going to carry a certain degree of popularity, especially when the player pool is as compact as it is Thursday. Naturally, there's also the chance the Boston-Atlanta game plays out much closer than what's projected.
Injury Situations to Monitor
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report.
Brandon Ingram, NOP (knee): OUT
In Ingram's ongoing absence, Trey Murphy should continue holding down the starting shooting guard spot, while CJ McCollum and Zion Williamson should see even more usage than usual.
Jalen Johnson, ATL (ankle): OUT
In Johnson's absence, De'Andre Hunter is likely to handle the starting power forward role once more, while Clint Capela could also see some additional rebounding opportunities.
Other notable injuries:
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL (hamstring): PROBABLE
Khris Middleton, MIL (ankle): PROBABLE
Jrue Holiday, BOS (shoulder): QUESTIONABLE
Al Horford, BOS (toe): QUESTIONABLE
Trae Young, ATL (finger): OUT
Elite Players
We have three players with five-figure salaries on Thursday's slate – Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800), Jayson Tatum ($10,400) and Dejounte Murray ($10,100).
Antetokounmpo is likely going to be the most popular high-end player on the slate, and he checks into what could be a wire-to-wire battle against the Pelicans having racked up 78.7 FD points in a the double-OT thriller against the Lakers on Sunday, one in which he played 46 minutes.
As already alluded to, there will be some blowout risk with Tatum's game, but he naturally has to be considered and is fresh off an outstanding performance of his own – he generated 61.1 FD points versus this same Hawks team in a surprising loss Monday night and has had two subsequent days of rest.
Murray continues to fill in admirably for Trae Young and has scored over 55 FD points in four straight games, including 55.5 against these same Celtics two games ago.
Expected Chalk
Other likely chalk plays include:
Zion Williamson, NOP ($9,500)
Williamson has bounced back from a dud against the Heat three games ago by scoring 55.4 and 54 FD points in his last two games. He should continue to see elevated usage as well with Brandon Ingram still out.
Damian Lillard, MIL ($9,100)
Lillard has eclipsed 40.1 FD points in five of the last six games and could be set for a heavy load of minutes against the Pelicans.
Jaylen Brown, BOS ($8,500)
Brown has one of the safer floors on the slate, which should help keep him highly rostered despite the risk of a lopsided game.
CJ McCollum, NOP ($7,900)
McCollum is also enjoying extra opportunity due to Ingram's absence, has a reasonable salary he's capable of overdelivering on and is a popular name on a small slate, all factors that should lead to him being highly rostered.
Key Values
Payton Pritchard, BOS at ATL ($5,600)
Pritchard is the first of two Celtics that I'm recommending based somewhat on the belief that Boston could eventually open a large lead, but the reality is the fourth-year guard has developed to the point where he's not just a dart throw that you roll out in your lineup when you expect a blowout. Pritchard's production has impressively begun to steady, entering Thursday having recorded double-digit points in 11 of 14 March games. He's hit or eclipsed 30 FD points in three straight games as well, including against the Hawks in his most recent contest, and he's shot a blistering 49.6 percent, including 42.3 percent from distance, over the course of the month. The Hawks have allowed the third-highest three-point shooting percentage (38.4) on the season and are ranked No. 24 and No. 21 in offensive efficiency rating allowed to backcourt players and second-unit players, respectively, furthering Pritchard's case.
Sam Hauser, BOS at ATL ($5,100)
Much of what was said about Pritchard can apply to Hauser as well, as the third-year wing has also begun picking up his game nicely and is averaging 29.7 FD points over his last seven games. Hauser is shooting an even more efficient 52.6 percent, including 51.5 percent from three-point range, in that stretch, and although some of that production has come with the benefit of a spot start he may not log Thursday, he's demonstrated the ability to produce off the bench as well. In fact, Hauser has three tallies of more than 25 FD points in a second-unit role this season, and there's also the chance he sees a robust allotment of minutes in the second half Thursday.
Garrison Mathews, ATL vs. BOS ($4,200)
Mathews isn't a cash game play by any means, but at his salary and with his ability to pile up some scoring through long-distance shooting, he's an intriguing tournament option. The veteran has offered some eye-catching contributions during March, having just scored 23.9 FD points against the Blazers on Wednesday and also having posted tallies of 24.6 and 29.6 FD points during the month. Mathews is capable of getting a hot hand from behind the arc, and if he gets some extra run Thursday due to game conditions, he's capable of approaching or exceeding a 5x return on his current salary.
ALSO CONSIDER: Trey Murphy, NOP vs. MIL ($6,500)
