Tonight's three-game slate demands precision from your NBA DFS optimizer, as two large projected spreads are offset by significant NBA injuries to stars like Devin Booker, Victor Wembanyama, and Zion Williamson. The key is identifying high-usage players whose NBA projection is elevated by these absences. Elite chalk like Pascal Siakam and Trey Murphy (8.2k) are top options, but mid-range value is crucial. Andrew Nembhard is a primary target, running hot with 32.6 FD points in his last seven games. Additionally, the recent 52.5 FD-point explosion from Zach LaVine makes him a high-upside play, and Devin Vassell remains essential with Wembanyama sidelined.
Slate Overview
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Listed spreads/totals are from FanDuel Sportsbook and current as of Monday, Dec. 8 @12:00 p.m. ET:
Sacramento Kings at Indiana Pacers (-3.5) (O/U: 233.5)
Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves (-9.5) (O/U: 227.5)
San Antonio Spurs (-9.5) at New Orleans Pelicans (O/U: 236.5)
We have a less-than-ideal picture being painted by the betting metrics Monday, considering the two large favorites. However, if Anthony Edwards, who's listed as questionable with an illness, is ultimately ruled out for Minnesota, that game will see its number naturally come down some.
The two projected totals well north of 230 points is encouraging, and the best overall game environment clearly projects to be the Kings-Pacers clash, which could indeed offensive expectations.
Injury Situations to Monitor
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report.
Devin Booker, PHO (groin): OUT
Booker's second consecutive absence should afford Collin Gillespie a spot start at point guard and will open up plenty of usage for the rest of the starting five.
Anthony Edwards, MIN (illness): QUESTIONABLE
If Edwards is sidelined, the likes of Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels will be set for big bumps in usage, while Jaylen Clark may draw a spot start.
Keegan Murray, Kings (arm): QUESTIONABLE
If Murray can't suit up, Precious Achiuwa could be due for a spot start at power forward.
Other notable injuries:
Victor Wembanyama, SAN (calf): OUT
Zion Williamson, NOP (adductor): OUT
Jalen Green, PHO (hamstring): OUT
Dillon Brooks, PHO (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
Dennis Schroder, SAC (hip): QUESTIONABLE
Elite Players
There are no players with five-figure salaries that have a chance to play on Monday's slate, but the highest-salaried players are Anthony Edwards ($9,700) and Pascal Siakam ($8,700).
If Edwards is able to play through his questionable designation, he'll be looking to bounce back from a couple of modest outings where he's put up 28.2 and 32.2 FD points. Prior to that quiet stretch, Edwards had scored 45.1 FD points or more in five of the previous six games, including a pair of tallies over 60.
Siakam posted 52.5 FD points against the Bulls his last time on the floor Friday, his second tally of more than 51 FD points in the previous four games.
Expected Chalk
Other likely chalk plays include:
De'Aaron Fox, SAN ($8,300)
Fox has scored over 43 FD points in two of his last three games and has upside that exceeds his salary, which should make him very popular on the small slate.
Trey Murphy, NOP ($8,200)
Murphy has eclipsed 45 FD points in two of his last three games and will be an integral part of the game with the highest projected total of the night, which should lock him into plenty of rosters.
Russell Westbrook, SAC ($7,300)
Westbrook's production certainly goes through some fluctuation, but he boasts a ceiling in excess of his current salary and should therefore be a popular mid-salary play on a three-game slate.
Key Values
Andrew Nembhard, IND vs. SAC ($6,600)
Nembhard comes into Monday running hot, as he's averaging 32.6 FD points per contest on averages of 17.0 points, 6.3 assists, 2.3 rebounds and 1.6 steals per contest over his last seven games. The talented guard has shot an improved 39.4 percent from distance during that span as well, and as Indiana's primary ball handler, he's dished out at least six dimes in all but one game during that span. The opposing Kings are allowing 49.8 FD points per game to PGs in the last 15 games as well, and it's worth noting Sacramento is also surrendering a league-high 29.5 assists per road game.
Zach LaVine, SAC at IND ($6,300)
LaVine, and the Kings as a whole for that matter, are having an unusual season, but the veteran wing can still provide production that far outpaces his current salary. The most recent example just came Saturday, when he went off for a season-best 42 points against the Heat on his way to 52.5 FD points. The latter tally was also a new season high for LaVine, who's now exceeded 40 FD points on four occasions and the 35-FD-point threshold in seven games overall. That certainly puts him into play at his salary on such a small slate and in what should be a very DFS-friendly game environment, and the Pacers also come in allowing 43.7 FD points per contest to two-guards in the last 15. Additionally, Indiana is also conceding an elevated 42.7 percent three-point shooting in the last three contests, furthering LaVine's case.
Devin Vassell, SAN at NOP $(6,200)
Vassell also comes in riding a hot hand, and he now gets a crack at a Pelicans squad against which he already has a couple of productive outings this season with less usage than he's likely to see Monday. Stephon Castle will return to action for San Antonio on Monday, but Victor Wembanyama (calf) remains out and Vassell is averaging 34.7 FD points per 36 minutes with the big man off the floor this season. Additionally, Vassell is averaging 32.6 FD points over his last 10 games, a stretch where he's shooting a blistering 46.3 percent from three-point range. In turn, New Orleans is giving up a 39.5 percent success rate from behind the arc in the last three games, and the Pels are also surrendering the second-most FD points per game to small forwards in the last seven contests (52.7).
ALSO CONSIDER: Naz Reid, MIN vs. PHO ($6,200)
