This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
NOP at MIA: The Heat have won nine of their last 10 games over the Pelicans.
MIN at WAS: The T'Wolves have won four of their last five fixtures against the Wizards.
OKC at PHX: The Thunder have won eight straight in this series.
MIL at SAC: The Bucks have won 17 of their last 19 outings over the Kings.
MEM at LAL: The Lakers have won five straight over the Grizzlies.
For the latest spreads and over/unders, visit RotoWire's NBA Odds page. There you can also find player props, futures, picks, articles and sportsbook bonus codes.
Injuries to Monitor
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report.
NOP - Dejounte Murray (Achilles), Saddiq Bey (hip), Trey Murphy (back), Herbert Jones (ankle), Derik Queen (quad)
MIA - Tyler Herro (toe), Norman Powell (leg), Jaime Jaquez (leg), Pelle Larsson (ankle)
MIN - NONE
WAS - Kyshawn George (hip), Cam Whitmore (shoulder)
OKC - Isaiah Hartenstein (calf), Cason Wallace (knee)
PHX - Grayson Allen (knee), Jalen Green (hamstring)
MIL - NONE
SAC - Zach LaVine (ankle), Domantas Sabonis (knee)
MEM - Ty Jerome (calf), Vince Williams (knee), Scotty Pippen Jr (toe), Zach Edey (ankle)
LAL - Rui Hachimura (calf), Austin Reaves (calf)
Elite Players
Guards
Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves ($9,600) at Wizards
Edwards has been on the superstar trajectory for years now, but he's well past that now. The former 2020 top pick is averaging 29.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.4 steals per game. What's even more impressive is his floor, scoring at least 29 DraftKings points in 26 of the 27 games he's finished this year. That's led to his elite 46-point average, and we don't want to fade him against the Wizards. Washington ranks 29th in points allowed and defensive efficiency.
Ja Morant, Grizzlies ($7,800) at Lakers
Morant's production has been all over the map, but Memphis needs him to step up with so many rotation players out of the picture. That's what we've seen from Ja recently, scoring at least 39 DK points in three of four games since his return. That's not far off from his 36-point average for the season, and you know he'll want to showcase his elite athleticism in LA against the Lakers. Los Angeles ranks 24th in defensive efficiency while posting a 26th OPRK against opposing PGs, with Morant scoring at least 40 DraftKings points in five of his last six games in Crypto.com Arena.
Forwards/Centers
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks ($11,000) at Kings
This former MVP reached a historic milestone earlier this week with his 30-point, 10-rebound, and 5-assist games, underscoring his value in DFS. The Greek Freak is one of the league leaders with 53 DK points per game while establishing a 40-point floor. That's what we've seen for a decade, and he's being asked to do even more with this roster's lack of depth. Our favorite part about this is the matchup against the Kings, with Sacramento sitting 27th in points allowed and 28th in defensive efficiency. That was clear when Giannis scored at least 54 fantasy points in each of their last nine matchups!
Zion Williamson, Pelicans ($8,100) at Heat
This is an article of former top picks, but injuries have kept Zion from entering that superstar territory. What it has done is keep him valuable in DFS because he has the talent to be a five-figure player. Williamson has shown that by scoring at least 48 DK points in every game since re-entering the starting lineup. That culminated in a 56-point gem in his most recent outing, and that could be a regular thing with how shorthanded this roster is right now. Matching up with Miami is the icing on the cake because the Heat rank 20th in total defense while playing at the fastest pace in the NBA.
Expected Chalk
Luka Doncic, Lakers ($12,000) vs. Grizzlies
Doncic is the most expensive player on this slate, but he's earned it. The Slovenian leads all active players with 62 DraftKings points per game. That's nearly 10 fantasy points higher than anyone on this slate, but it's backed by a 50-point floor. It's scary since his ball-handling and usage have risen in the absence of Reaves, and LA needs him to record a 30-point triple-double in every game right now. That should be much easier to do against a team like Memphis because the Grizzlies rank eighth in pace while posting a 27th OPRK against opposing point guards. There's simply no safer bet for 50 DK points, and he's one of only two players who could reach 80 fantasy points.
Mid-Range Money
Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves ($6,500) at Wizards
Gobert has hovered around this $6K total all season, and it's difficult to understand why. The former Defensive Player of the Year has scored at least 26 DK points in 11 of his last 12 outings. He's also got his season average up to 32 fantasy points per game, which is in line with the guy we've seen for a decade. That alone makes him a solid value at $6,500, especially since he squares off with a 29th-ranked defense. Washington also surrenders the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers, with Gobert scoring at least 49 DK points in four of his last six meetings with the Wizards.
Myles Turner, Bucks ($5,200) at Kings
It's been a rough debut season for Turner in Milwaukee, but he's too good to be this cheap. Turner has been closer to $7K throughout most of his career, and getting Giannis back in the lineup could be just what the doctor ordered. That's led to Turner scoring at least 41 DK points in two of his last three outings. That's massive here because Sacramento surrenders the most fantasy points to opposing centers.
Davion Mitchell, Heat ($5,100) vs. Pelicans
Herro's absence has been a nightmare for Miami fans, but Mitchell has been a pleasant surprise. He's been the starting point guard in his absence, averaging 26 DK points per game. That's an absurd average for a $5K player, especially since Mitchell has at least 26 fantasy points in three straight fixtures. Getting a defensive stud like this in a 30-minute point guard role is plenty of incentive to use him at $5K, but facing a 27th-ranked Pelicans defense is simply a bonus.
Value Picks
Marcus Smart, Lakers ($4,500) vs. Grizzlies
Smart has been flinging his body around basketball courts for as long as I've been writing, and it's a treat to watch as a neutral viewer. While he's been stuck in bench roles in recent years, Smart is now starting in Reaves' absence. That's led to the former Defensive Player of the Year playing at least 28 minutes in six of his last eight outings. We can't ask for much more from a $4,500 player, particularly since Smart scored 37 fantasy points in his most recent outing. A revenge game against Memphis won't stray us away because they own a 27th OPRK against opposing guards.
Keon Ellis, Kings ($3,400) vs. Bucks
Recommending a player like Ellis is risky, but at just $3,400, he's a worthy punt play. This defensive stud always steps up when given an opportunity, which has been more likely since Sacramento lost LaVine and Sabonis. Those injuries have led to Ellis averaging 27 minutes per game over his last five fixtures. Ellis has averaged close to 30 DK points per game when he plays over 25 minutes throughout his career, and that threshold would make Keon one of the values of the day at just $3,400. Not to mention, Milwaukee allows the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wings.
