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Best Bets
Trae Young over 28.5 points (-140) at Pacers
DraftKings, 3:55 PM CT
Alex Barutha: This game has an absurd 262 over/under, and the last time these teams faced off, Young had 38 points in the 157-152 loss. Not only does the fast pace favor Young, who is averaging 28.2 PPG, but the Pacers allow the second-most points to pick-and-roll ballhandlers. Young scores 13.4 PPG in those actions.
Terry Rozier under 23.5 points (-115) at Bulls
FanDuel, 3:58 PM CT
Alex Barutha: This is a notable pace-down spot for Charlotte, who rank 17th in pace compared to Chicago's 30th. Not only that, but the Bulls are allowing the fewest points from pick-and-roll ballhandlers, thanks to Alex Caruso's defense. Rozier scores 8.9 of his 24.1 PPG in those actions, so I like him to have an off night.
Cameron Johnson over 2.5 threes (-115) vs. Thunder
DraftKings, 4:10 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Brooklyn is struggling, but Johnson is playing great. He's hit multiple threes in eight straight games. It's a great matchup for him, as 33% of his usage comes on spot-up attempts, and the Thunder allow the most points to spot-up shooters per game.
Grayson Allen over 2.5 threes (+136) vs. Heat
FanDuel, 4:13 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Allen has been great for the Suns this season, and he's hit multiple triples in seven straight games, drilling 45.7 percent of his threes on the year. This is a great spot for him, as the Heat allow the second-most points to spot-up shooters, and 47% of Allen's usage is used on spot-up attempts.
Tyus Jones under 5.5 assists (+110) at Cavaliers
DraftKings, 3:06 PM CT
Alex Barutha: This is a rematch of Wednesday's contest, where the Cavaliers won 140-101. Jones played just 21 minutes and had two assists -- a far cry from his December average of 6.4 dimes. I'm banking on him struggling as a passer again. Cleveland is allowing the second-fewest assists to point guards over the past 30 days, and it's a massive pace-down spot for Washington on the road. The Wizards are the fastest-paced team in the NBA, while the Cavs are 22nd. Jones is also averaging just 5.4 assists in road losses, and the Wiz are 10-point underdogs.
Jalen Brunson over 2.5 turnovers (-155) at 76ers
BetMGM, 3:15 PM CT
Alex Barutha: The 76ers are forcing opposing point guards to commit the third-most turnovers across the past 30 days, which makes sense with De'Anthony Melton's aggressive backcourt defense. Brunson has been great at taking care of the ball this season (2.4 TOV), but that's up to 3.2 TOVs over the past 13 games and 3.6 TOVs over the past five.
Alperen Sengun under 9.5 rebounds (-115) vs. Timberwolves
PointsBet, 3:22 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Sengun has been excellent this season, but his rebounding has slipped lately, and this is a bad matchup for him on the glass. The center is averaging just 6.0 rebounds over the past four games, and the Wolves have allowed the third-fewest boards to centers over the past month, largely due to Rudy Gobert's presence. Sengun also been slightly worse rebounding at home (8.6) compared to on the road (9.7).
Bam Adebayo under 0.5 blocks (+172) at Suns
FanDuel, 3:26 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Betting on a good defensive center to get zero blocks is always uncomfortable, but we're approaching 2-to-1 odds. Plus, Adebayo is only averaging 1.0 blocks this season, and he has zero blocks in five of his past eight games. Meanwhile, the Suns have allowed the fewest blocks to centers over the past 30 days.
Anthony Davis over 2.5 blocks (-110) vs. Grizzlies
BetMGM, 3:31 PM CT
Alex Barutha: I'm surprised to see this number at 2.5. Davis is averaging 2.7 blocks on the season, 2.9 blocks over the past nine games, and he has 10 total blocks in the past two games. Memphis has allowed the second-most blocks to centers over the past 30 days, and AD had a six-block performance against them earlier in the year in just 27 minutes.
Thunder -5.5 at Nets
DraftKings Sportsbook, 12:30pm CT
Nick Whalen: We got burned by OKC on Wednesday night, but all is forgiven, and we're going back to the well in what should be another good spot for the NBA's best young team. OKC is an NBA-best 7-1-1 ATS after a straight-up loss this season and 9-4-1 ATS on the road (best in the NBA). The Thunder are also 9-2 ATS against the Eastern Conference this season, while the Nets are 3-8 ATS vs. the West.
Anfernee Simons O24.5PTS at Mavericks
DraftKings Sportsbook, 12:30pm CT
Nick Whalen: Simons struggled on Wednesday against this same Mavs team, but he was coming off of missing a week due to an illness. I like this as a bounceback spot against the Mavs – especially if Luka Doncic (who's questionable as I type this) sits out, which could give us a more competitive game. Either way, I like this number for a player who was putting up 28.0 points per game in 34.9 MPG prior to the illness.
Bam Adebayo U10.5 rebounds at Suns
DraftKings Sportsbook, 12:30pm CT
Nick Whalen: Adebayo is averaging 11.0 boards per game since returning from injury, but he's going up against the NBA's No. 1 team in terms of limiting opposing centers on the glass. This could get dicey if it's a close game and Adebayo plays 36-to-38 minutes, but we'll trust the trend and ride the under.
Immanuel Quickley O17.5PTS at Kings
DraftKings Sportsbook, 12:30pm CT
Nick Whalen: Quickley has hit the ground running in Toronto and is coming off of a 26-point effort in 33 minutes against Memphis on Wednesday. Through two games, he hasn't even shot the ball well (13-31 FG) but has clearly moved into a more prominent role than the one he held in New York. On the season, Quickley is averaging nearly 23 points per 36 minutes – he may not reach that total tonight, but he could get pretty close.
Simone Fontecchio over 9.5 points at Boston (-110)
DraftKings, 1:45 ET
Ken Crites: Everyone's favorite Italian forward (sorry, Danilo Gallinari) is averaging 12.8 points a contest when he starts for Utah. And Fontecchio is on a mini-heater, putting up 17.3 points over 31.7 minutes in his last three games. Yes, the Celtics are favored by 13.5, and a blowout is possible. But should that happen, I think Utah will be more concerned about resting Lauri Markkanen, John Collins and Kelly Olynyk. The K-Train is a modest 15-11 so far this season, so feel free to fade.
