NBA Barometer: Off Point

At the onset of the NBA season, the exhibition slate has parsed out a number of job battles, raising the profiles of some while pushing down others who lost out. Chief among those was the race to land the small-forward gig in Detroit between offseason trade acquisition Marcus Morris and rookie Stanley Johnson. Entering camp as the presumptive favorite, Morris picked up the initial nods at the three but struggled out of the gate, with foul trouble hurting his ability to acclimate to a new system. Meanwhile, Johnson replicated a stat-laden Orlando Summer League with double-digit points in his first four games. The healthy run resulted in two starts next to Morris in the midst of the preseason, but a role reversal soon took hold, as Johnson cooled off significantly while the vet channelled his twin brother Markieff. In the end, Morris held off Johnson, averaging 12.4 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.0 steal, and 1.0 three-pointer in 24 minutes per game. The eight-game sample also included 49 percent from the floor and 42 percent from three-point range (8-for-19), but drilling 85 percent from the foul line (17-for-20) was a large deviation from his career mark of 67 percent. If that development holds, Morris will likely be able to fend off Johnson, at least in the opening weeks of the season, as head coach Stan Van Gundy showcases the greenhorn off the bench at both wing positions.

Every week, we'll use this space to track players whose fantasy value is improving, declining or uncertain. We're not particularly concerned with hot or cold streaks – all players toss up a 2-for-10 game every now and then – unless they are extreme or seem to indicate an underlying problem or injury. Instead, we'll be looking at changes in playing time, rotation role, or performance.

Stock Up

Jeremy Lin (PG)
One of the more unassuming free-agent signings this summer, Lin wasn't expected to be more than a known playmaker behind point guard Kemba Walker, though head coach Steve Clifford implied in Lin's introductory news conference that he would play off the ball with Walker for stretches. Playing that part would allow Lin to grab more minutes due to Walker's extensive usage – he's averaged at least 34 minutes per game in three straight seasons – but a hard foul on Michael Kidd-Gilchrist in the exhibition opener would require Clifford to amend his plans for the rotation. While Kidd-Gilchrist's resulting torn labrum will likely sideline him for the season, the door opened for Lin to log even more time at two-guard with nominal starter Nicolas Batum moonlighting at small forward, which he called home for seven seasons in Portland. The Hornets' interchangeable parts pushed Lin into a prominent role, and he took full advantage of the opportunity, scoring in double digits in all six exhibition outings. Furthermore, he complemented 15.3 points with 4.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.3 three-pointers, and 0.7 steals in 25 minutes per game, forecasting a potential run for the Sixth Man of the Year Award if he upholds his preseason standard.

Kris Humphries (PF)
Throughout 11 professional seasons with six organizations, Humphries has provided a boost on the boards wherever he's resided, most notably in New Jersey to close out that chapter of the Nets in the 2010-11 and 2011-12 season. Across those campaigns, he was a consistent double-double threat, averaging 11.7 points and 10.7 rebounds per game, but the stint was his only one as a regular starter. A similar opportunity has presented itself in Washington this fall, as the oft-injured Nene Hilario has willingly assumed a reserve role as he embarks upon his age-33 season, handing the keys at power forward to Humphries with the Wizards poised to follow the trend of small ball that has proliferated the NBA. While Humphries has displayed his typical knack on the glass, notching back-to-back double-doubles to end the exhibition slate, his offseason devotion to extend his shooting range has also yielded fruit. Prior to training camp, he had attempted 26 three-pointers in 691 regular season games, yet he surpassed that total in a single preseason, drilling 10-of-28 for a respectable 36-percent clip. He shouldn't be confused with modern fours like Draymond Green and Paul Millsap, who likewise combine rebounding and treys into their nightly, across-the-board offerings. Unlike that duo, though, Humphries is available on most sites, including 96 percent of ESPN leagues, meaning he should be scooped up now before his availability whittles away.

Others – Zaza Pachulia (C) ; Nate Robinson (PG) ; and Ian Mahinmi (C)

Check Status

Mason Plumlee (C)
Plumlee's output in his first two seasons was contingent upon the health of Brook Lopez, whose inevitable bouts with injury afforded the young center stretches in the Nets' starting five. Last season in particular, Lopez tended to a lower back strain, during which Plumlee averaged 12.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.0 assist, 1.0 steal and 1.0 block in 27 minutes during a 41-game span as a starter. However, when Lopez was able to handle a full workload again, Plumlee was marginalized in the front court rotation. After he was shipped to Portland on draft night, Plumlee could reasonably be considered the Blazers' center-of-the-future after LaMarcus Aldridge and another Lopez, Robin, left in free agency. Running alongside rangy big man Meyers Leonard, Plumlee appeared like a great fit due to his propensity to hang around the paint, as 76 percent of the field goal attempts in his career have come within three feet of the hoop. If the preseason was any indication, head coach Terry Stotts will employ a slash-and-kick game to exploit the strengths of guards Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, which won't necessarily benefit a player like Plumlee. As evidence, Plumlee managed just 6.4 points (on 69 percent shooting) and 5.4 rebounds in 21 minutes per game, while Leonard prospered (10.4 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 2.0 three-pointers in 24 minutes per contest). Consequently, it may take some time for Plumlee to find his niche in Portland.

Kristaps Porzingis (PF)
The towering Latvian boasts a skill set that intrigues in the current NBA, namely a 7-foot-3 frame combined with a touch from outside, but the 20-year-old requires some seasoning before he'll be able to dish on the opposition. No matter, Porzingis made a concerted effort to bulk up in advance of his rookie season in order to handle any dalliances in the post, reaching 240 pounds at the outset of training camp. During the course of the preseason, he missed time due to a left quadriceps strain, but overall, his production was fairly consistent (7.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.0 block, and 0.8 three-pointers in 20 minutes per outing). While his shooting suffered (37 percent from the field), he committed only eight fouls in four games (4.4 violations per 36 minutes), which bodes well for his ability to avoid hitting the bench prematurely. Expected to start the year as the Knicks' starting power forward, Porzingis' playing time must increase to warrant a roster spot in standard leagues.

Others – Kevin Martin (SG) ; Gerald Green (SF) ; Mario Hezonja (SF/SG) ; Jared Sullinger (PF/C) ; Kelly Olynyk (C/PF) ; Myles Turner (PF/C)

Stock Down

Rajon Rondo (PG)
In the lead-up to last season, Rondo's summer trade demands foretold his departure from Boston, and the Celtics ended the suspense in December by shipping him to Dallas. He didn't provide the boost expected, though he helped the Mavericks grab the seventh seed in a stacked Western Conference, before he was ignominiously shown the door after Game 1 of the team's first-round playoff defeat at the hands of the Rockets. Thus, he entered free agency with a cloud hanging over his head, but it didn't stop the Kings from inking him to a one-year, $10 million deal. With a competent point guard (Darren Collison) already on the roster, a moody superstar (DeMarcus Cousins) to please and head coach George Karl to operate under, the landing spot was indeed a curious one. In the preseason, Rondo's yield wasn't exactly inspiring – 5.7 points, 5.2 assists, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.5 steals in 23 minutes per game – while Collison was arguably the team's best player, outpacing Rondo in every statistical category. For the foreseeable future, Karl will stick with Rondo, but it may only be a matter of time before fireworks start to fly in Sacramento.

Zach LaVine (PG/SG)
The lasting image from LaVine's rookie season was his utter annihilation of the field at the Slam Dunk Competition during All-Star Weekend, but he showed some of his potential when Ricky Rubio was out injured and Mo Williams was traded to the Hornets. In lockstep with the preceding developments, LaVine earned 40 starts over the course of the season, averaging 13.8 points (on 43 percent shooting), 5.1 assists, 4.0 rebounds, 1.1 three-pointers and 1.0 steal in 34 minutes per game. Considering he was 19 years old until the final month of the season, the production was all the more impressive and handed him valuable experience directing the offense, as 94 percent of his playing time occurred at point guard. Long term, though, the Timberwolves want to develop LaVine as a two-guard to complement Rubio, which may have aided in his dismal showing in the preseason. While merely a seven-game sample, LaVine shot 25 percent from the field, including 3-for-14 from three-point land, on his way to 5.9 points in 23 minutes per tilt. Head coach Sam Mitchell will tip off the season with a starting backcourt of Rubio and Andrew Wiggins, relegating LaVine to a reserve gig where he'll have to contend with Kevin Martin for playing time.

Others – Joakim Noah (C) ; Bojan Bogdanovic (SG/SF)