Not all busts are created equal when it comes to fantasy basketball rankings. These aren't necessarily poor real-life or even fantasy basketball players, but the goal of any draft should be to maximize value at all costs. Some players simply aren't worth their price tag, while others have name value and real-life prowess, but aren't as helpful when it comes to fantasy basketball.
Busts also depend on the type of league you're playing, its settings and your strategy. On a per-game basis, Giannis Antetokounmpo was the 29th-ranked player in 8-category leagues last season. For fantasy owners who punted free throw percentage (Antetokounmpo shot 61.7% on 10.6 attempts), he vaulted up to third overall. Keep that in mind when defining busts that you're looking to avoid during your NBA fantasy draft.
Common Draft Busts: How Rankings Warn Against Overhyped Players
There are a handful of reasons why Rotowire's fantasy basketball draft kit has players ranked lower with smaller fantasy basketball auction values than you might find elsewhere.
Recency bias, name recognition and media narratives all have the ability to inflate a player's actual value. This can lead to some lackluster performances and underperforming draft picks that impact your scoring.
Injury Concerns: Players Too Risky for Their Draft Position
The best ability is availability, and injuries can derail a fantasy basketball season quicker than any poor shooting night ever could. Consensus first round pick Anthony Davis was the No. 6 player in fantasy basketball on a per-game basis last year, but plummeted to No. 43 in total stats after multiple injuries limited him to 51 games.
His Dallas teammate Kyrie Irving was 18th in per-game rankings, but just 68th in total stats after playing 60 games or fewer for a sixth straight season. You don't want to worry about having to check the NBA injury report each night for your biggest names.
Both players finished outside the top-40 in total statistics, but cost an early pick on draft night. There's always a chance an injury-prone player like Davis, Irving or Kawhi Leonard, all of whom are always high on the NBA fantasy ADP board, could string together a healthy campaign. But you're usually better off letting someone else deal with the headache–especially in the load management era. There's no replacement for a player you can set and forget in the lineup each night.
Overvalued Stars vs. Reliable Mid-Round Talent
Athletic and enjoyable-to-watch players can easily find their way into NBA starting lineups and the national spotlight. But it's critical to remember that real-life value doesn't always translate to fantasy value. A perfect example is Rockets guard Jalen Green, one of the most explosive, young talents in the league. He helped bring the Rockets to the postseason last year. Still, he ranked 98th on a per-game basis because of his subpar field goal percentage on such high volume and lack of counting stats (4.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists).
The Rockets' leading scorer ranked below Houston's reserve Tari Eason (85th on a per-game basis), who averaged 1.7 steals and shot nearly 49% from the field. It's easy to look at NBA projections and see the gaudy scoring numbers that Green will put up.
You'll also see him above the rim in plenty of highlight reels, but he wasn't always a net-positive contributor for fantasy teams. Try to take the name and reputation away from your opinions when looking at your NBA fantasy draft cheat sheet and focus solely on the numbers.
How the Draft Kit Helps You Identify and Avoid Bust Candidates
Rotowire's NBA Draft Kit provides players with both last year's statistics and ratings and this season's projections. Fantasy owners can see weighted numbers on every player's expected performance–for example, a player who shoots 49% on 10 attempts per game is better than someone who shoots 51% on five attempts per game. There are no biases in the rankings, and analysis is done with the numbers and expected future performances in mind.
You'll notice certain players lower than the general consensus on social media and by the NBA media, and you'll know there's a reason behind staying away from those types of players. Don't be shocked to see a bigger name lower than a rotational player who might perform well in scarce areas.
Busts can ruin a team, and it's important to both avoid those types of players at their assumed cost and to maximize your auction dollars or draft slot. To dive deeper into who to stay away from and why, subscribe to RotoWire to ensure you're finding value with lesser-known names.
