This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
Wednesday's slate is a bit deceptive as we technically have 12 games listed, but only 10 of them have any props as of this writing, and there are enough injury concerns among the 76ers, Heat and Hawks that each of the three is also devoid of betting options.
As a result, there are simply not many great options from which to choose. For each of the PRA listings (points + rebounds + assists), you could easily break them apart and just bet the respective category line which I'll mention, but the cumulative PRA obviously presents better odds which I think are certainly achievable.
Points Props
I'm definitely intrigued with over 23.5 PRA (-107) for Kevin Love. If you wanted to chase better odds, over 7.5 rebounds (+104) is nice enough especially because he's gone over that total in three of the last four games, but I think the Bulls defense coupled with the removal of Love's minutes restriction basically point to this total PRA hitting. Despite averaging 25.3 minutes in past 10 games since returning from the multi-month injury, Love has gone over the aforementioned PRA five times. That includes his most recent two contests where he's played 30 minutes each night.
With no Domantas Sabonis (back) and possibly missing the likes of Doug McDermott (ankle) and Jeremy Lamb (knee), someone has to score for the Pacers. Enter Caris LeVert whose over 22.5 points, (-113) looks awfully interesting given the circumstance. You'd think that kind of injury concern could make Indiana susceptible to a blowout, but they're actually favored by nine points against the NBA's Double-A equivalent, the Thunder. LeVert's had two bad games recently but, prior to that, he was averaging 27.8 points in his previous four games which is important context considering the Thunder allow the second-most points to opposing shooting guards across the entire league.
There's no reason to go into much detail considering it's covered pretty well in the Wednesday edition of Handicapping the NBA, but Joe Ingles over 23.5 PRA (-117) certainly seems in play. If you're going to bet a piece from the cumulative prop I like the assists over (5.5, +110) mainly for the odds, but it's a relatively safe total regardless.
To be honest, this is more of a gut-check bet than anything else. We know the Trail Blazers are vulnerable defensively in the backcourt and after Jamal Murray's unfortunate ACL tear, Will Barton (over 14.5 points, -113) represents the best/only option the Nuggets have in the backcourt. I'd feel a lot better about this option if Barton didn't average just nine points in his first two games without Murray, but he did go off for 28 points Monday in a matchup against the Kings that was similarly sieve-like, so I'll side with recency bias in this one.
Easily one of my favorite bets of the slate is Anthony Edwards' over 21.5 points (-118) prop. Sitting at 239.5, the Timberwolves and Kings represent the second-highest over/under Wednesday and Edwards has just one game over his last five where he's failed to score at least 23 points. After a recent dismal defensive stretch, the Kings now allow the most points overall to opposing shooting guards as well, so there's really no reason the 2021 No. 1 overall pick should have an off night.
Rebounds/Assists Props
Most of the rebounds/assists props were packaged together in the aforementioned PRA totals above, but I'll highlight one more rebound-specific PRA with Kevon Looney (over 17.5 PRA, -113). You could just target over 7.5 rebounds (-139) considering the Wizards allow the fourth-most rebounds to opposing centers, but I think with Looney getting consistent minutes due to James Wiseman's unfortunate knee injury, there's a distinct opportunity to get a bit better odds with the cumulative PRA. Looney's averaging 28.2 minutes over the last five games along with 5.2 points, 10.0 rebounds and 2.2 assists per contest. That's already right near the PRA average, which doesn't seem to account for how bad the Wizards have been against opposing centers this year.
Best Bets
- Anthony Edwards over 21.5 points (-118)
- Joe Ingles over 23.5 points/rebounds/assists (-117)
- Kevon Looney over 7.5 rebounds (-139)
