This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Defense to avoid: Golden State Warriors, vs SAS: The Warriors, on paper, are the overwhelming favorites on Tuesday night with Kawhi Leonard listed as doubtful, and very much unlikely, to play. The Celtics are the underdog to the Cavaliers as well, but at least they are playing at home with everyone healthy. The Spurs, then, are the team most likely to be held to a low number as a squad. The obvious disclaimer is that, with their best player out, there are likely to be value plays that still make the Spurs worth considering, despite a lower team outlook.
Offense to use: Cleveland Cavaliers, at BOS: The Cavaliers won the regular season head-to-head three games to one over the Celtics, and they are the favorites despite being the lower seed. However, with the game in Boston, the Celtics are more likely to be very competitive and keep the game close enough for players to produce maximally. The Celtics just got done with a high-scoring (on both sides) series with the Wizards, so there's no reason not to expect them to give up plenty of points to a better Cavaliers squad that's been the best offense in the playoffs.
Kyrie Irving, CLE at BOS ($8,400): Irving averaged 42.5 fantasy points in four games against the Celtics in the regular season. Meanwhile, his offensive playing style of quickness, athletic ability and shooting is at least somewhat analogous to that of John Wall, who just torched the Celtics for around 50 fantasy points, on average, in their seven-game series.
Avery Bradley, BOS vs CLE ($5,800): Bradley is averaging 27.3 fantasy points over the last four games, on the strength of two 40+ fantasy point efforts bracketed by two games in the teens. He has the exact same average of 27.3 fantasy points in his four regular season efforts against the Cavs, including those when he was obviously physically slowed at the end of the season as he recovered from injury. Thus, if his expected value is in the upper 20s, he has very legitimate upside to exceed that.
Marcus Smart, BOS vs CLE ($5,000): Smart had a very clear split between home and road output in the last series, averaging almost 32 fantasy points in the four home games, close to doubling his road production. Smart has a home game on Wednesday, though he did average a modest 20.7 fantasy points in the four regular season meetings with the Cavaliers.
LeBron James, CLE at BOS ($12,000): James has scored no fewer than 56 fantasy points in any of his eight games this postseason, with a max of 87.3. He averaged 61.8 fantasy points in four regular season games against the Celtics this season. There's really not much to say here -- James is playing about as well as we've ever seen him.
LaMarcus Aldridge, SA at GS ($7,100): Aldridge scored 48 fantasy points in Game 1 against the Warriors, and is averaging 42 fantasy points over his last five games. With Kawhi Leonard listed as doubtful to play on Tuesday, he is the player expected to pick up the offensive slack for the Spurs, for better or worse.
Jonathon Simmons, SA at GS ($4,700): Simmons scored between 23.5 and 27 fantasy points in each of the last three games against the Rockets, playing almost 29 minutes per game. If Kawhi Leonard (doubtful, ankle) sits, Simmons would have a good chance of playing starter-level minutes on Tuesday.
Draymond Green, GS vs SA ($8,000): Green managed only 30.8 fantasy points in Game 1 of the series. However, he was still near a triple-double with nine points, seven assists and seven rebounds. Also, it was his lowest output of the playoffs thus far, which suggests that he could be in for a bounce-back. He showed with his 55.5 fantasy points in the closeout 26-point win over the Jazz that he can have a big impact on a game even if it becomes a blowout, which would seemingly be in play if Kawhi Leonard sits.
Al Horford, BOS vs CLE ($7,100): Horford averaged 27.5 fantasy points in three games against the Cavaliers this season, but has upped his game in the posteason. Horford has averaged 35.2 fantasy points in his last four games overall and averaged almost 42 fantasy points in his last four home games.
Tristan Thompson, CLE at BOS ($5,100): Thompson has averaged in the mid-to-upper 20s of fantasy points in the playoffs thus far. But, he averaged 31.7 fantasy points in three games against the Celtics, in which he averaged a solid 12 and 12 double-double. The Celtics aren't very strong in the paint, so Thompson projects to continue to do well there.
