This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
Memphis (-11) at Houston (o/u 237.5)
Utah (-13) at Oklahoma City
Toronto at Cleveland (-4)
New Orleans at Denver (-2.5)
New York at Los Angeles Clippers (-3.5)
This is a fairly ugly slate from an offensive perspective, as it features a couple games with the potential for blowouts and either strong defensive teams or those that prefer to play at a slow pace. That makes the Memphis-Houston matchup stand out, though there are spots to pick in the other four based on key players being sidelined.
Injury Situations to Monitor
Dennis Schroder, HOU (ankle): questionable
Schroder has missed the last two games due to an ankle injury. It seems he has a reasonable chance to return, which has the potential to hurt Josh Christopher.
Aaron Wiggins, OKC (ankle): questionable
Wiggins has been out for two games due to an ankle issue. He practiced Saturday, so it's very possible he returns Sunday. Wiggins could be in for a significant role with Josh Giddey ruled out.
Fred VanVleet, TOR (knee): questionable
Malachi Flynn, TOR (hamstring): questionable
VanVleet doesn't have a timetable to return, so it doesn't seem particularly promising he'll be back Sunday. That will likely set Flynn up for significant playing time, though he's also questionable. If he takes the floor, he becomes both a strong value play and almost certain chalk.
Rajon Rondo, CLE (toe): doubtful
Rondo is nearing a return, indicated by his participation in shootaround Friday. His absence would likely benefit Brandon Goodwin and Cedi Osman.
Caris LeVert, CLE (foot): doubtful
LeVert is also not likely to retake the floor as no concrete updates have been provided. Like Rondo, his absence would help lock in the roles of Goodwin and Osman.
Austin Rivers, DEN (illness): probable
Rivers was out with a non-COVID illness Friday, but he looks likely to return. If that happens, Davon Reed probably moves back out of the rotation.
Zeke Nnaji, DEN (knee): questionable
Nnaji has missed the last eight games due to a knee injury and has been questionable for much of that time. Even if he returns, he likely won't immediately return to minutes in the high 20s.
Nikola Jokic, DEN (illness): probable
Jokic is likely to come back after a one-game absence caused by a non-COVID illness. Monitor news throughout the day to confirm he'll get his normal minutes.
Obi Toppin, NYK (hamstring)
Nerlens Noel, NYK (foot)
Neither Noel nor Toppin has an official injury status and both are in jeopardy of missing Sunday's game. With Quentin Grimes already out, Cam Reddish could see minutes as could one of Jericho Sims or Taj Gibson if both are out.
Other Notable Injuries
Mike Conley, UTA (rest): out
Juancho Hernangomez, UTA (back): questionable
Josh Giddey, OKC (hip): out
Ty Jerome, OKC (hip): out
Luguentz Dort, OKC (shoulder): out
Kenrich Williams, OKC (knee): out
Derrick Favors, OKC (back): out
Mike Muscala, OKC (ankle): out
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, OKC (foot): out
OG Anunoby, TOR (finger): out
Quentin Grimes, NYK (knee): out
Elite Players
Jokic ($12,600) offers one of the safest floors, but a combination of salary and circumstance suggest he isn't a strong play Sunday. It's unclear how much the illness he battled may still be bothering him. In addition, Jokic's value hasn't fallen to account for this increased risk. For those reasons, he's not someone I'm likely to play in any contest type.
Ja Morant ($10,500) has put together a string of excellent performances and is now valued to match his peak for the season. As the total for the game indicates, there should be no problem finding offense against Houston. That makes Morant an intriguing tournament/GPP option. If you feel inclined to build around someone with a five-figure salary, he would be my choice - but isn't a must play due to his increased salary point.
Remaining consistent, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,400) also appears overvalued. Much like Morant, SGA has been excellent since returning to the court Feb. 24. In five games since, he's topped 60 DK points twice while reaching 49 on two other occasions. With a number of key Thunder players already ruled out, Gilgeous-Alexander will shoulder an even larger offensive load than usual. While Utah isn't the same negative matchup it's been in recent seasons, the team still plays at a slow pace and is a slightly above-average defense. That makes it unlikely that SGA will have a ceiling game, and is another player I'm not particularly interested in building around in cash contests.
Expected Chalk
There will be a lot of value available when looking at OKC given the number of players already ruled out. Tre Mann ($5,500), Aleksej Pokusevski ($5,300), and Aaron Wiggins ($3,100) – if available – all have the potential to return strong value and will be popular as a result. This is also a way to get exposure to the Thunder without relying on Gilgeous-Alexander to return value on an inflated salary point. Follow the news throughout the day to be sure who's in and out.
Toronto is likely to be without Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby, which will lead to continued increased usage for Pascal Siakam ($9,400) and Scottie Barnes ($7,000). Barnes had been the primary beneficiary, but Siakam also took advantage of the absences for the first time on Friday by racking up 54.5 DK points. With that being the most recent memory, he's likely to be a popular play Sunday and Barnes should also be popular. And if Flynn is available, he'll also be chalky.
Value Plays
Many Memphis players will be in a good spot to produce due to Houston's abysmal defense, so this is a matchup to attack. Jaren Jackson ($6,500) stands out as a potential option given his value and a skillset that leads to several different paths to reach potential value. He also could come at a lower roster rate given his poor performance Saturday, highlighted by 2-for-11 shooting from the field. Others to consider from the Grizzlies include Desmond Bane ($6,000) and Kyle Anderson ($4,600).
On the other side, Alperen Sengun ($4,200) has quietly earned 22 minutes in two of his last three games and has reached 30 DK points on each occasion. The Grizzlies aren't particularly strong against big men defensively, so Sengun should deliver if provided decent court time.
Jalen Green ($5,600) has recently gotten more aggressive on the offensive side of the floor of. The potential return of Dennis Schroder could hurt him, but it also has the potential to make him rostered at a lower than optimal rate.
With Mike Conley out, Jordan Clarkson ($5,000) and Donovan Mitchell ($9,300) should be in line for increased ball-handling duties. Clarkson could be a chalky option, but there are several possibilities at the position and likely won't get the attention he deserves. Mitchell may be one of the higher-salaried players I have interest in on the slate, with his primary downside appearing to be the potential for a blowout.
Cedi Osman ($4,200) has taken advantage of the absences of Rajon Rondo and Caris LeVert, both unlikely to take floor Sunday. He has also earned minutes ahead of Brandon Goodwin of late, which will put him in a good position to deliver on his relatively low salary. Osman represents a strong value play assuming Rondo and LeVert are ultimately ruled out.
