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Atlanta Hawks over 10.5 threes (-125) vs. Celtics
DraftKings, 1:14 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Just because a team is shooting poorly from three -- like the Hawks are in this series (27.3%) -- doesn't mean that they will unquestionably progress to the mean in the short term. However, in Atlanta's case, I believe they will.
The swing factor is the sheer volume of wide-open looks that have been bricked. Of all playoff teams, Atlanta has taken the second-most wide-open threes (defender 6+ feet away) per game (20.0) but is converting them at just 17.5% -- an unfathomably low number. Even with that being the case, the Hawks have made 21 triples in the series, so 10.5 threes is a conservative line.
Having the home crowd behind them should help, as they shot 37.6% on wide-open threes at home during the regular season. If you'd rather target a specific player and operate with plus money, I'd turn to De'Andre Hunter over 1.5 threes (+125). He's 2-for-9 on wide-open triples in this series (22.2%) compared to 36.4% at home during the regular season.
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2-Leg Defensive Parlay: RJ Barrett over 0.5 steals + Jaylen Brown over 0.5 blocks (+494)
DraftKings, 3:21 PM CT
Alex Barutha: For context, the individual odds for these are Barrett +120 and Brown +170 if you don't feel like parlaying them (probably the smarter decision. But is it the more fun decision?)
While on the NBA.com advanced stats pages, looking for value, I wandered into the "hustle" category. There, you can find stats like deflections and contested shots -- the latter being the favorite of analysts who want to note Brook Lopez's defensive impact.
Anyway, I think there's hidden value in these numbers. If we assume a deflection has a 50/50 chance of landing in the hands of the deflector's team, it makes sense to look at players' steal props by slicing their number of deflections in half. For example, Marcus Smart is averaging 4.5 deflections per game against the Hawks (six total steals). Since you can't actually get half a steal, I'd round that down to four, meaning I want to get plus money on Smart to reach two steals. His prop is 1.5 (-115), so I'm avoiding it -- not that I think it's a bad bet.
So, Barrett. He's averaging 3.0 deflections per game, meaning we're looking for plus money on him reaching one -- and we have it (+120). He's not noted for amazing defense (0.4 STL in 33.9 MPG in the regular season), but he has five total steals in this series and I think the home crowd will help.
Onto the blocks. I actually did some math on this one, but you'll have to decide for yourself if you believe my process is logical. To establish a baseline, I looked at regular-season numbers and averaged out the number of two-point contests from the Top 10 players in that category. The Top 10 two-point contesters contested an average of 9.5 per game. Then, I averaged out each player's actual block numbers, which ended up at 1.9 per game. I divided those two numbers to get a ratio that came out to exactly 0.2 blocks per two-point contest.
With a 20% block ratio established -- again, if you think what I did makes sense -- I looked at the top two-point contesters in the postseason so far. I know that not all contests are made equal, based on shot location and athleticism of the defender, but it's good to use in combination with traditional stats and the eye test.
So, yes, all of this research and I ended up with two bets. It turns out that Sportsbooks have figured out how to set good lines over the past few decades. Anyway, Brown has averaged 6.0 contested twos per game in this series and racked up two blocks in Game 2. He only blocked 0.4 shots during the regular season, but we know he's athletic, we know the defensive intensity is higher, we know he could play 40 minutes, and we know he's in shooters' faces -- and we're getting nearly 2-to-1 odds (5-to-1 on the parlay).
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Derrick White Over 15.5 points (-113) at Atlanta
FanDuel, 12:35 PM CT
Chris Benzine: White surpassed tallied 17 or more points in his last seven games playing at least 30 minutes and has reached 16 or more in 17 of the 22 contests in which he's at least logged 34 minutes, his minimum through two playoff games. He proved in Game 2 he also doesn't need to hit threes at a high rate to go over the mark, converting just a pair on the night while finishing with 26 points, but he has also launched seven threes or more in the previous five games.
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