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Best Bets
Alperen Sengun over 1.5 STL+BLK vs. Pistons (-160)
DraftKings, 3:15 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Since March 1, the Pistons have the highest turnover rate in the NBA (16.0%). Upon digging into the numbers, I discovered that the weak point was the center spot. Over the past month, Detroit is allowing the most steals per game to opposing centers (2.1), and they've also allowed opposing centers the seventh-most blocks per game (2.7). Sengun has active hands -- part of the reason he gets in so much foul trouble -- so I like his chances to rack up multiple defensive stats.
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Andrew Nembhard over 1.5 turnovers (-160) vs. Thunder
DraftKings, 3:30 PM CT
Alex Barutha: The Thunder have absolutely been hounding opposing teams' point guards. Over the past month, opposing PGs are handing over the ball 4.2 times per game, leading the NBA. This isn't an easy bet to make since Nembhard is averaging just 1.2 turnovers since March 1, but he's taking on so much of the playmaking responsibility without Haliburton around that he's bound to crack under tons of pressure.
Walker Kessler over 23.5 points + rebounds at Boston
DraftKings, 3:47 PM CT
Ken Crites: Over Kessler's last 10 games, he's averaged 13.2 points and 9.9 rebounds per game, so 23.1 total. But the Celtics are playing the second of a back-to-back, which means veteran Al Horford and fragile Robert Williams will probably not play. That means a heavy dose of Grant Williams, Blake Griffin, Luke Kornet and Mike Muscala. Kessler is better than all those guys. Plus, Utah is without Lauri Markkanen and Rudy Gay, leaving the paint open for Kessler. Jayson Tatum (hip) is also a GTD for Boston, further weakening their frontcourt. The Jazz have had three nights of rest – I smell a double-double for the big rookie.
Andrew Nembhard over 20.5 P+A vs. Thunder (-120)
DraftKings, 2:57 PM CT
Chris Benzine: Nembhard has hit this mark in each of the last two games he's played and averages 22 points-plus assists per 36 minutes with Tyrese Haliburton off the floor. He should log a healthy workload Friday, and this is a game that should feature plenty of scoring with the second-highest total (241.0) on the slate. Despite being without Haliburton, Indiana is just a 4.5-point underdog, so there's minimal risk of a blowout compared to some of the others on the docket.
