In getting out to a 2-0 start in the NLCS, outscoring the Diamondbacks by a 15-3 score and hitting a combined six home runs, the Phillies have given their fans a gift. Those two wins have evidently so demoralized Diamondbacks fans that demand for tickets for Games 3, 4 and 5 at Chase Field is startlingly low.
That raises the question: for Phillies fans hoping to watch their favorite team clinch a second consecutive National League pennant, is it cheaper to wait until the team gets home for Games 6 and 7, or is it cheaper to fly to Arizona, stay in a hotel and buy tickets to Game 4 or 5? Let's find out.
The Tickets
We'll start at the obvious place. After searching everyone's favorite ticket websites, here are the cheapest tickets available for each remaining game of the NLCS:
| Game | Date | Venue | Cheapest Available Ticket* |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thursday, Oct. 19 | Chase Field | $11 |
| 4 | Friday, Oct. 20 | Chase Field | $34 |
| 5 (if necessary) | Saturday, Oct. 21 | Chase Field | $47 |
| 6 (if necessary) | Monday, Oct. 23 | Citizens Bank Park | $433 |
| 7 (if necessary) | Tuesday, Oct. 24 | Citizens Bank Park | $842 |
*fees included
So we're already looking at a savings of at least around $400 per ticket if we choose to attend a game in Phoenix instead of Philadelphia. If we can find flights and a place to sleep for cheaper than that, we can tell our partners it's actually a smart financial decision for us to hop on a plane to the desert.
Travel Costs
Sadly, we aren't going to quite reach that mark, as last-minute weekend flights to warmer parts of the country don't come cheap this time of year. Depending on how many games you want to see, here are the cheapest available round-trip nonstop flights I could find from PHL to PHX, as well as the cheapest available hotel rooms:
| Games | Travel Days* | Cheapest Round-Trip Flight | Cheapest Hotel | Travel Costs Per Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thursday-Friday | $1,040 | $70 | $1,100.00 |
| 3-4 | Thursday-Saturday | $839 | $112 | $475.50 |
| 3-5 | Thursday-Sunday | $918 | $172 | $363.33 |
| 4 | Friday-Saturday | $578 | $74 | $652.00 |
| 4-5 | Friday-Sunday | $658 | $120 | $389.00 |
| 5 | Saturday-Sunday | $588 | $82 | $588.00 |
*This table assumes you fly in on your first game day and flight out the day after your final game
If staying at a low-rated budget motel isn't your idea of a fun vacation, add $50 or so to the hotel column at a minimum, but in terms of establishing a baseline for comparison, you get the idea. Remember that the cheapest available tickets for Game 6 back in Philadelphia are $433. That means that while flying out to Phoenix for a single game may not be the soundest financial decision, those able to attend multiple games may actually wind up seeing more playoff baseball per dollar by heading to Chase Field, even when flights and hotels are considered.
Seeing the Celebration
So we've established that tickets to NLCS games at Chase Field are so much cheaper than those at Citizens Bank Park that costs are at least comparable for Philadelphia-area fans who are trying to decide which game to attend. What about for those specifically hoping to see the series-clinching win?
The game-by-game series odds at FanGraphs, which use Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projection system, give the following probabilities for how the series will end:
| Winner | Probability |
|---|---|
| Phillies in 4 | 21.0% |
| Phillies in 5 | 23.1% |
| Phillies in 6 | 21.4% |
| Phillies in 7 | 14.5% |
| Diamondbacks | 20.1% |
Add it all up, and that's a 44 percent chance to clinch on the road, a 36 percent chance to clinch at home, and a 20 percent chance to lose. For Phillies fans looking to spend their money most efficiently in hopes of being there when J.T. Realmuto hugs Craig Kimbrel (or, who knows, maybe Orion Kerkering), here's one last table:
| Game(s) | Odds of Seeing Clinching Win | Total Cost (Ticket + Travel) | Clinches per $1,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 21.0% | $686 | 0.31 |
| 5 | 23.1% | $635 | 0.36 |
| Both 4 and 5 | 44.1% | $859 | 0.51 |
| 6 | 21.4% | $433 | 0.49 |
| 7 | 14.5% | $842 | 0.17 |
The final column measures the number of series-clinching wins by the Phillies which attendees can expect to witness per $1,000 spent. As you can see, two options are in a virtual tie as the most cost-efficient way to give yourself the best chance of seeing the celebrations first-hand. You can book a flight to Phoenix, stay a couple nights in a cheap motel and buy some startlingly inexpensive tickets to Games 4 and 5, or you can stay home and wait for the series to return for Game 6 — if the Phillies let it get that far.
