We're in the stretch run of the 2025 MLB season and playoff races are taking shape. It's also a time of year when folks wagering on player props at MLB betting sites might have noticed some patterns emerging for certain stars.
Rotowire.com used BaseballSavant.com to find the MLB hitters who have been the unluckiest throughout the 2025 MLB season. Here is the top 15, with an explanation below:
Unluckiest Hitters of The 2025 MLB Season
Rank | Player | Team | Average Ranking |
T-1 | New York Mets | 2.0 | |
T-1 | New York Yankees | 2.0 | |
3 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 3.7 | |
4 | Los Angeles Angels | 6.3 | |
5 | Texas Rangers | 6.7 | |
6 | Miami Marlins | 7.0 | |
7 | Kansas City Royals | 8.3 | |
8 | Cleveland Guardians | 11.0 | |
9 | Miami Marlins | 12.7 | |
T-10 | Luis Garcia Jr. | Washington Nationals | 13.7 |
T-10 | Luis Robert Jr. | Chicago White Sox | 13.7 |
12 | Detroit Tigers | 14.7 | |
T-13 | New York Mets | 15.0 | |
T-13 | Miami Marlins | 15.0 | |
15 | Milwaukee Brewers | 15.7 |
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The three categories included to average out the rankings were:
- Expected Batting Average minus Actual Batting Average
- Expected Slugging Percentage minus Actual Slugging
- Expected Weighted On-Base Average minus Actual Weighted OBA
Stats are through Aug. 17 and players need 300 plate appearances to be included.
Juan Soto, New York Mets
While it's hard to label anyone who's currently sixth MLB wide in terms of offensive WAR (at 4.8, per Baseball-Reference.com), that's not to say that superstar outfielder Juan Soto hasn't gotten the short end of the stick in Queens. That's because the first-year New York Mets corner outfielder and his .252 batting average are -.047 shy of where he should be, average wise, compared with his xBA of .299, speaking to the plethora of hard-luck outs the eighth year veteran has racked up this season. Across the MLB, Soto's -.047 figure ranks fifth overall, while his quality of contact (strikeouts and walks) difference of -.064 ranks in a tie with Ben Rice of the New York Yankees across the Majors.
By our metrics, Soto's average ranking of 2.0 makes him the least lucky hitter in the MLB, alongside Rice of The Bronx Bombers, though it might be too soon to break out the tissues for the former Washington Senators and Yankees star. That's because oddsmakers from DraftKings Sportsbook are giving Soto +20000 NL MVP odds right now, ranking alongside several other Senior Circuit stalwarts in a tie for sixth overall.
Ben Rice, New York Yankees
The man that's tied with Soto atop our unlucky hitters list in the MLB with an average ranking of 2.0 also has a -.064 difference in his wOBA and xwOBA, with an actual on-base percentage of .340 and an expected figure of .404. So far, Rice's second MLB season has seen him clean up a lot of the areas where he struggled as a rookie, improving his average from .171 to .233, with an OPS of .783 (up from .613) and an OPS+ of 115 (up from 72), per Baseball-Reference.com.
Throw in the fact that Rice already has more than doubled his home run total this year (from seven to 17) and improved his RBI count from 23 in 2024 to 38 this season, and you have a decent snapshot of the improvement the 12th round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft has put forth this season for the Yankees.
Still, it seems like Rice has a legitimate gripe to make about getting robbed this season, with one of the biggest gulfs between actual stats and expected stats across the three metrics surveyed as part of this story.
Michael Conforto, Los Angeles Dodgers
While Conforto's been around the Majors since 2015, it's fair to say that his first campaign with the Dodgers has fallen well shy of expectations, with the former Mets and San Francisco Giants outfielder well below the Mendoza line, at .187, with -0.7 WAR in 105 games played this season, per Baseball-Reference.com.
Still, Conforto can at least point to our metrics to explain why his stats are, at least in part, the direct result of bad luck, as the veteran ranks third on our unluckiest hitters list, with an average ranking of 3.7. That's partly due to the fact that Conforto's quality of contact difference of -.057 is the third largest gulf in the Majors, but also because his slugging differential of -.097 ranks sixth MLB-wide, putting him near the top of an unenviable list in the MLB this year.
Other Unlucky Hitters
Other unlucky MLB hitters this season include names like Jo Adell of the Los Angeles Angels, who has an average rank of 6.3, while former Dodgers and current Texas Rangers infielder Corey Seager is next in line, at 6.7. Rounding out the MLB top 10, luck (or lack thereof) wise were names like Otto Lopez of the Miami Marlins (7.0 average ranking), Salvador Perez of the Kansas City Royals (8.3 average ranking), Nolan Jones of the Cleveland Guardians (11.0 average ranking), Agustin Ramirez of the Miami Marlins (12.7 average ranking) and a two-way tie between Luis Garcia Jr. of the Washington Nationals and Luis Robert Jr. of the Chicago White Sox, at 13.7 apiece.
While the players mentioned above might have wound up on the short end of the stick, luck wise, at the dish, the same can't be said for Conforto's Dodgers, who are the No. 1 World Series contender, odds wise, on DraftKings Sportsbook, at +400, while Rice and the Yankees are listed at +1100 and Soto and the Mets check in at +1700 to win it all this fall.
