Todd's Takes: Winning Isn't Everything

QUANTITY, NOT QUALITY

On Tuesday, Michael Lorenzen posted a quality start against the Los Angeles Angels. The Philadelphia Phillies right-hander logged six frames and allowed three earned runs, meeting the criteria. He gave up six hits, two of which left the yard. He walked two with only five punchouts.

Opponents of the quality start will use this as evidence that it's a sketchy stat, especially for fantasy scoring. In a vacuum, they're right, but some level of boundaries must be established. The specifications can be argued, but as currently defined, Lorenzen turned in a quality start.

Proponents of the metric point out in the aggregate that quality starts have yielded a 1.81 ERA so far this season. Sure, there are some 4.50 efforts registering as a quality start, but overall, there are so many more stellar efforts.

Some fantasy leagues have replaced wins with quality starts. I think they're both wrong. Innings pitched as a roto category is better than either wins or quality starts. It even works for relievers.

Here is a table showing 2023 earnings using the three different categories. The numbers were generated via earned auction values for a 12-team mixed league.

To each their own, but I favor the third column, and it's not close. Innings matter. Some may scoff at Luis Castillo as the highest ranked fantasy pitcher so far (by less than a dime over Gerrit Cole), but innings are crucial and should be recognized.

Your mileage may vary.

Arte Moreno Is a Real Man

Regular listeners of the RotoWire show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio have no doubt heard the "a real man drops his whole team" promo. On Tuesday afternoon, the Angels put Lucas Giolito, Hunter Renfroe, Randal Grichuk, Matt Moore and Reynaldo Lopez on waivers. Clearly, this is a salary dump, hoping some are claimed before they can be picked up for almost nothing on Thursday and still be playoff eligible.

I found it odd that Renfroe and Grichuk were in Tuesday's lineup. So much so, in fact, I thought I was punked by a fake Jeff Passan X account. The quintet is still part of the organization, so they're able to play. That said, why risk injury to a player you hope gets claimed?

Box Score Blitz, Tuesday August 29

• PHI 12, LAA 7: Selective endpoint to maximize sensationalism alert: After last night's 2-for-5 with a homer effort, Trea Turner's line is .364/.400/.750 since Aug. 5. For the season, he's just four steals and four stolen bases shy of last season's numbers. Of course, his 2022 totals were lower than his three-year average, so his projection was higher, but even in a disappointing season, Turner is contributing. He went at the turn of the first NFBC draft of 2024. I think that's perfect, but I suspect his ADP will be around 10 picks later... Bryce Harper's ADP will also be fun to follow. He clubbed his 14th homer on Tuesday, giving him nine (so far) in August. Will his draft stock drop with a seemingly low number of homers or will he be given a mulligan for coming back early from Tommy John surgery, which had to contribute to his slow start. He went 24th in the aforementioned NFBC draft, which feels right. For those keeping score at home, Harper needs four more games to qualify at first base in most 2024 drafts... Nolan Schanuel continues to give Angels fans something to give them hope for next season. His OBP is over 100 points higher than his slugging, but the key is his patience and approach have translated to the majors. Schanuel will be more Mark Grace than Mark McGwire, but he looks to be a major-league regular and a fantasy asset.
• NYY 4, DET 2: Michael King and Jhony Brito tag-teamed the first 7.1 innings, with King starting and getting through four scoreless frames, scattering three hits with five strikeouts and no walks. Brito also didn't yield a run, but he administered two hits and two walks with only three punchouts. King pitched better, but Brito garnered the win. Don't worry, I promise that's my last reference to wins as a category. Well, maybe... Parker Meadows is getting an extended audition for next season. So far, so good, as Austin's younger brother has a .995 OPS with a homer and steal in his first eight games. His 34.3 percent strikeout rate is concerning, but a 15.6 percent walk rate offers hope Meadows will improve his contact rate, though both numbers are out of whack with his minor-league track record (he fanned and walked less) ... Anthony Volpe clubbed his 19th homer to give the Yankees an insurance run in the ninth. His August has been curious. Volpe has fanned at a monthly low rate, but his August exit velocity is at its nadir. However, the rookie shortstop hit more fly balls this month. In aggregate, it's probably just sample-size noise, but Volpe bears watching down the stretch. And no, this is not because I dealt Jackson Holliday for him in my Scoresheet league.

          Narrator: Of course it is

• TB 11, MIA 2: The Rays are good again, or maybe they're taking advantage of a soft schedule. Regardless, they've won three straight and seven of their last eight... After Aaron Civale burned 32 pitches in the first inning, the chance he would last five innings and qualify for the win was bleak. He grinded it out and indeed recorded 15 outs to collect his second victory for Tampa Bay, though the club has won four of his five outings... I'll take an "L" on Isaac Paredes, who clocked his 27th homer on Tuesday. Even though he clubbed 20 last season in 111 games, I underestimated Paredes' power, noting he hit only 16 doubles last year, and when a player accumulates more homers than two-baggers, it's usually a sign his homer total was bloated. This season, Paredes has 27 homers to just 20 doubles, but he's earned respect as a home run threat. Factor in he's eligible at first, second and third, and Paredes plays everyday despite batting right-handed for a platoon-heavy lineup, I really missed the boat... Jorge Soler left the game in the seventh inning with a sore hip. An inning earlier, he misjudged a fly ball, helping to turn Sandy Alcantara's one run in five frames effort into a four runs in 5.2 innings outing.
• BAL 9, CHW 3: Who had Adley Rutschman batting leadoff on their 2023 bingo card? With Austin Hays and Gunnar Henderson ineffective at the top of the order and with Cedric Mullins out, Rutschman was inserted on July 29 and hasn't left, batting .297/.364/.407 over this stretch. Rutschman has played 96 games at catcher with 32 at designated hitter. James McCann is playing two or three times a week. With the Rays just three games out, Rutschman should continue to be in the lineup every day. If the Orioles can get some breathing room, they may give Rutschman a break down the stretch, to keep him fresh for the playoffs... Anthony Santander was 2-for-5 with a double, but he's smashed four homers over the past week, lifting him to within shouting distance of last season's 33 career high homers... OK, a .753 OPS isn't player of the month worthy, but Yoan Moncada is again fantasy relevant in deeper formats, though he hasn't attempted a steal this month and has fanned at a 30.3 percent clip. Maybe he's relevant in really deep leagues?
• WSH 5, TOR 4: The Nationals are tied for the seventh best record in the league since the break. On Tuesday, they outlasted the Blue Jays, with Kyle Finnegan collecting his 25th save. It was his 10th this month, tying Adbert Alzolay for the most in August... Carter Kieboom smashed his third homer since being handed the keys to the hot corner a week ago. He's still just 25 years old, but considering Kieboom hit only five homers in 34 Triple-A games, the recent surge appears more fluky than a sign of growth. Even so, he's playing and is at least as fantasy-worthy as Moncada... Bo Bichette (quadriceps) is back on the IL for the Blue Jays. He's joined by Matt Chapman who is out with a sprained finger. On Tuesday, they filled in with Ernie Clement at shortstop, Santiago Espinal at third and Davis Schneider at second. Espinal and Schneider should continue to play regularly, with Cavan Biggio chipping in... Schneider has been especially impressive with three multi-hit games over the last four days, including three homers and three doubles. Obviously, his production will slow down, but the hot streak is coming at the right time and if he continues to be productive, Schneider could be the regular second baseman in a healthy Blue Jays infield.
• HOU 6, BOS 2: The Astros win extended their lead for the last wild card to six games over the Red Sox, though they are just .001 percentage points behind the Mariners and Rangers in the AL West... J.P. France made up for his horrible effort against Boston last week in Minute Maid Park with 5.2 innings of two-run ball, falling one out shy of a quality start but still earning the win... Some will observe France's 4.91 ERA at home and 1.92 mark on the road this season and mistakenly stream him only for away games. His 4.39 xFIP at home and 4.19 mark on the road say ignore the sample-size splits and focus on the matchup... Halloween is still two months away, but if pumpkin spice is out, it's not too early to think of costumes. Those in New England who want to really scare their friends, family and neighbors should dress up as Yordan Alvarez. In 22 games versus the Red Sox (including playoffs), Alvarez has slashed .393/.457/.722 with 22 RBI and 18 runs scored... With Jarren Duran (toe) out for the season, Ceddanne Rafaela has been promoted. Rafaela will debut on Wednesday, playing shortstop and batting leadoff. With rosters expanding over the weekend, there is a chance Rafaela stays with the big club, but since he and Wilyer Abreu (and Adam Duvall) are righty swingers, it's unclear how much Rafaela will play once Abreu is back from paternity leave. Rafaela is versatile enough to play shortstop, but the scuttlebutt is he's a future Gold Glover in center.
• TEX 2, NYM 1: It's pretty easy to tell which blurbs I write the evening of the games and which I do the following morning/afternoon when I'm rushing to get it to the editors at a reasonable time. This is my way of explaining shorter game reviews from here on out... The Mets don't fan much, but Andrew Heaney still managed to punch out seven in 5.1 scoreless innings. I promised not to mention things like he failed to record a win or quality start despite an impressive outing, so I won't... Will Smith pitched the eighth, collecting his seventh hold with Aroldis Chapman sealing the deal for his fourth save. It's probably not a changing of the guard, as Smith was tasked with facing the top of the Mets order, but that left Pete Alonso to Chapman. Chapman whiffed Alonso, but the lefty did surrender a homer to Mark Vientos, cutting the Rangers' two-run lead in half. After opening the month with nine homers through Aug. 20, Alonso has failed to leave the yard in the ensuing eight games.
• CLE 4, MIN 2: Gavin Williams was only able to complete one inning after hurting his knee by slipping during his delivery. There is no word as to the extent of the injury... Serendipitously, Hunter Gaddis was recalled earlier in the day to take the roster spot of Daniel Norris, who was waived. Gaddis threw three innings, giving up just one run to collect the win. If Williams is out for any length of time, Gaddis could take his spot in the rotation... Cal Quantrill is slated to start Friday, helping fortify the Guardians rotation... Those drafting Kole Calhoun as the 50th man on a draft and hold roster as a good luck charm have gained an unexpected August boost as Calhoun has posted a usable .778 OPS, playing a lot of first base. If you know, you know... The Twins are readying Byron Buxton to play center down the stretch and into the postseason. Let the countdown to 20 games commence.
• STL 6, SD 5 (F/10): Had the Cardinals known Willson Contreras would go deep twice in the first game his parents attended after he signed with the club, they may have flown them in from Venezuela a lot earlier in the season. His second homer was a two-run shot, tying the game at five in the bottom of the eighth... Seth Lugo continued to pitch well, but his six-inning effort went for naught after St. Louis plated the ghost runner in the 10th to walk if off. Lugo fanned six with just one walk. After getting crushed by the Dodgers in his first August outing, Lugo registered a 1.57 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over his next four, punching out 23 in 23 stanzas.
• CHC 1, MIL 0: Is Justin Steele a top-25 starting pitcher next season? That's where he was picked in the first 2024 NFBC draft. He's the fifth best starter according to earned auction values (using wins as a category). On Tuesday, he outdueled Corbin Burnes to lower his ERA to 2.69, second lowest to Blake Snell's 2.60 among qualified starters. Steele's 3.55 xFIP checks in as 11th in this group, so even though he's been a little lucky, his skills are still in the SP1 range... Adbert Alzolay saved his 22nd game of the season and his 10th this month. He was the 13th closer off the board in that draft. Upon first blush, the saves inventory seems deeper and more stable than recent seasons. I'll take Alzolay in Round 7 over any closer drafted earlier.
• PIT 6, KC 3: The Pirates were giddy when Cole Ragans was lifted after seven sparkling stanzas as they hammered the Royals bullpen. Ragans is drawing what initially seemed to be unfair comparisons to Spencer Strider, in that they both emerged as dominant starters after appearing to be nondescript relievers. Lately, the comp is looking more reasonable, which speaks more towards the rise of Ragans than any disrespect towards Strider. Ragans will contend for August pitcher of the month honors with a 1.72 ERA and 1.06 WHIP for the month, fanning a whopping 53 with just nine free passes in 36.2 innings... With his homer in four at-bats, Ke'Bryan Hayes has posted a .320/.368/.588 month. He was caught in his only stolen base attempt, but especially since he's batting leadoff, Hayes has a lot of fantasy appeal down the stretch.
• ATL 3, COL 1: The Rockies should be credited with at least a moral victory for limiting the Braves to just three runs. Marcell Ozuna knocked in two of them, one on a solo homer, his 30th long ball of the season... With a single, Hunter Goodman is 5-for-12 to open his career. Including Wednesday, 18 of the Rockies' 30 remaining games are at home, so Goodman will have plenty of chances to impress.
• OAK 3, SEA 1: A game started by Ken Waldichuk and Luke Weaver seemed destined to hit the over, and it was headed in that direction. Weaver allowed three runs on seven hits in 3.2 innings while Waldichuk escaped with only one run allowed in four frames despite issuing five bases on balls. The 3-1 Oakland lead made it through to the end with both bullpens buckling down with shutout ball... Seth Brown and Shea Langeliers took Weaver deep to account for the Athletics' scoring... Much to the dismay of countless DFS lineups (yeah, including mine), Julio Rodriguez was a late scratch. He remained out Wednesday with a nerve issue in his left foot, but the club is hopeful for a Friday return.
• SF 6, CIN 1: Alex Cobb threw 124 pitches without a Reds knock. With Nick Senzel on first after a walk, Spencer Steer doubled on Cobbs' 125th, vanquishing the no-hitter and the shutout. Cobb still garnered a complete-game win after fanning Elly De La Cruz on six pitches. The 131 Cobb tossed for the game is almost as many as he threw in an entire year earlier in his career... It's not exactly a Wally Pipp/Lou Gehrig scenario, but with is stellar defense and 99 wRC+ (not bad for a catcher), Patrick Bailey has rendered Joey Bart as the forgotten man. For those curious, Bart is batting .237/.348/.382 for Triple-A Sacramento. The 12.7 percent walk rate is encouraging, but Bailey is firmly established as the backstop by the Bay.
• LAD 9, ARI 1: Things could not have gone better for Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. It's understood the club would like to limit the southpaw's innings down the stretch, so compiling a 7-1 lead after five stanzas made the decision to lift Kershaw a no-brainer. The Dodgers added two more, the bullpen did the rest and Kershaw gathered his 209th career win... Mookie Betts added to his MVP resume with a 2-for-3 evening, featuring his 36th homer. Many still feel Ronald Acuna will win the award, but DraftKings Sportsbook has installed Betts as the current MVP favorite... At one point, Corbin Carroll was the prohibitive favorite for the NL Rookie of the Year award, but a second-half swoon has brought the Reds trio of Matt McLain, Steer and Elly De La Cruz into the mix. With McLain on the IL, and Carroll slashing .455/.525/.818 over the past 10 games, the Diamondbacks freshman is again in the driver's seat.