The Z Files: Five Is the New Four

The Z Files: Five Is the New Four

This article is part of our The Z Files series.

It's become cliche, but managers say they love a starter who can "take the ball every fifth day." Pitchers say, "I want the ball every fifth day."

Twenty years ago, this was the norm. More than half of all starters went with four days of rest.

SeasonGS3 Days4 Days5 Days3 Days%4 Days%5 Days%
2004485692249713991.9%51.4%28.8%

For fun, check out the data from 50 years ago.

SeasonGS3 Days4 Days5 Days3 Days%4 Days%5 Days%
197438901291145947033.2%37.5%12.1%

What about last season?

SeasonGS3 Days4 Days5 Days3 Days%4 Days%5 Days%
2023486064158319871.3%32.6%40.9%

That's right, more starts occurred with five days of rest than four. This is partially, but not completely, due to adding some off days to the schedule. Here is data from the past five full seasons.

SeasonGS4 Days5 Days4 Days%5 Days%
202348601583198732.6%40.9%
202248601790173136.8%35.6%
202148581610178233.1%36.7%
201948581923165939.6%34.1%
201848621843181037.9%37.2%

Keep in mind the lockout condensed the schedule in 2022, accounting for the higher percentage of four days of rest. Otherwise, there would be a trend towards more starts with five days of rest.

Here is the complete rundown from last season.

0 to 3 Days4 Days

It's become cliche, but managers say they love a starter who can "take the ball every fifth day." Pitchers say, "I want the ball every fifth day."

Twenty years ago, this was the norm. More than half of all starters went with four days of rest.

SeasonGS3 Days4 Days5 Days3 Days%4 Days%5 Days%
2004485692249713991.9%51.4%28.8%

For fun, check out the data from 50 years ago.

SeasonGS3 Days4 Days5 Days3 Days%4 Days%5 Days%
197438901291145947033.2%37.5%12.1%

What about last season?

SeasonGS3 Days4 Days5 Days3 Days%4 Days%5 Days%
2023486064158319871.3%32.6%40.9%

That's right, more starts occurred with five days of rest than four. This is partially, but not completely, due to adding some off days to the schedule. Here is data from the past five full seasons.

SeasonGS4 Days5 Days4 Days%5 Days%
202348601583198732.6%40.9%
202248601790173136.8%35.6%
202148581610178233.1%36.7%
201948581923165939.6%34.1%
201848621843181037.9%37.2%

Keep in mind the lockout condensed the schedule in 2022, accounting for the higher percentage of four days of rest. Otherwise, there would be a trend towards more starts with five days of rest.

Here is the complete rundown from last season.

0 to 3 Days4 Days5 Days6 Days7 Days8-plus Days
2151583198744981298

The total falls short of the 4860 games started because each pitcher's first start doesn't register.

Here is a look at the aggregate performance for each time frame.

 1 to 3 Days4 Days5 Days6 Days7 Days8-plus Days
ERA4.004.454.354.573.794.89
WHIP1.291.301.291.331.271.37
K%24.3%21.8%22.4%22.5%20.5%20.8%
BB%7.7%7.6%7.8%8.4%8.3%8.7%

The narrative would have been better if the improvement with five days of rest was greater, but there are slightly better results as compared to four days of rest.

Cole Ragans, with a dash of Michael King, are the reasons I went down this rabbit hole. Both emerged from the bullpen to turn heads as starters. In the process of evaluating each, I was curious how much rest each received between starts. If they were afforded extra rest, perhaps their performance would suffer if they worked with less rest between starts. Here is data for each.

PitcherGS1 to 3 Days4 Days5 Days6 Days7 Days8-plus Days
Cole Ragans12037002
Michael King9243000

The elegance of this discussion is there is no right answer. If you're a Ragans stan, you'll brush off the fact he pitched mostly on more than four days of rest. Some may even cite the following splits and contend Ragans will thrive with less rest.

 4 Days5 Days
ERA2.043.35
WHIP0.961.07
K%39.1%29.7%
BB%7.2%11.0%

Clearly, this is myopic as the samples are too small to draw such a conclusion. 

Personally, I am more concerned about Ragans being able to repeat the ridiculous skills level he showed than I am about the rest issue, but sure, it is a concern. That said, analysts specializing in pitch modeling are enthralled by Ragan's stuff.

I'm guessing you're now curious about the workload distribution of other starters. Ask and ye shall receive. After the table, some other intriguing hurlers will be highlighted. Again, there isn't a definitive word of warning or "no big deal" for anyone. It's just some (hopefully) intriguing information to consider when making decisions.

PitcherGS1 to 3 Days4 Days5 Days6 Days7 Days8-plus Days
Miles Mikolas3411813200
Zac Gallen3301813110
Logan Webb3201712210
Lucas Giolito3201611401
Chris Bassitt3201515200
Gerrit Cole3201416110
Dylan Cease3201415201
Luis Castillo3201314500
Kyle Gibson3201314500
Yusei Kikuchi3101610401
Jordan Montgomery3101414201
Clarke Schmidt3101414120
Johan Oviedo3101316101
Jose Berrios3101315210
Logan Gilbert3101313320
Lance Lynn3101313221
Mitch Keller3101216201
Aaron Nola3101215301
Jesus Luzardo3101214320
Patrick Corbin3101214401
Zack Wheeler3101117201
Dean Kremer3101117201
Blake Snell3101116400
Pablo Lopez3101019101
Sonny Gray310921001
JP Sears310919300
Spencer Strider310819400
Corbin Burnes310623200
Zach Eflin3001413201
Bryce Elder3001312401
Kevin Gausman3001215201
George Kirby3001211502
Taijuan Walker3011210412
Jordan Lyles3001116102
Braxton Garrett300915420
Framber Valdez300719301
Cristian Javier300522201
Merrill Kelly290196301
Justin Steele290159302
Josiah Gray290129602
Trevor Williams290129512
Kyle Bradish2901014302
Charlie Morton2901013420
Freddy Peralta290619301
Jameson Taillon280166204
Kyle Freeland2801412011
Brady Singer2801014121
Jon Gray2801012303
Joe Ryan280915301
Hunter Brown280619201
Kodai Senga280317602
Alex Cobb270137322
Sandy Alcantara2701113201
Andrew Heaney271715400
Brayan Bello270714501
Patrick Sandoval270315612
Reid Detmers2701131201
Ryne Nelson260156311
Rich Hill260138500
MacKenzie Gore260126602
Zack Greinke2601112201
Michael Kopech2601112201
Austin Gomber2601112300
Dane Dunning2611012111
Justin Verlander260915200
Max Scherzer260813203
Jack Flaherty260813113
Graham Ashcraft250147112
Seth Lugo2501010302
Bailey Ober250814102
Eduardo Rodriguez250612412
Marcus Stroman240156111
Nathan Eovaldi241119102
Luke Weaver241119111
Bryce Miller2401010211
Tanner Bibee240714201
Tylor Megill240712221
Michael Lorenzen24079602
Tyler Anderson2401121001
Kyle Hendricks230156020
Yu Darvish23099401
Jake Irvin23089411
Mike Clevinger230713102
Logan Allen230613301
Michael Wacha230414302
Clayton Kershaw230412502
Drew Smyly222125102
Brandon Williamson220117202
Grayson Rodriguez220711211
Aaron Civale220710302
Kutter Crawford222610301
J.P. France220316201
Wade Miley220217012
Shohei Ohtani221015402
Hunter Greene210107013
Ranger Suarez21088401
Ken Waldichuk21278400
Colin Rea212511003
Bobby Miller210412401
Griffin Canning210011622
Andrew Abbott200116120
Shane Bieber20099101
Tyler Glasnow20097211
Julio Urias20097112
Shane McClanahan200810011
Tyler Wells200810101
Taj Bradley200710003
Adam Wainwright20069302
Adrian Houser200512102
David Peterson200511202
Tanner Houck200411311
Tony Gonsolin19084610
Edward Cabrera19079201
Kenta Maeda19078103
Paul Blackburn19069310
Martin Perez19069301
Carlos Carrasco190510202
Chris Sale190312211
Domingo German18078102
Alek Manoah180610002
Cal Quantrill18069102
Joey Wentz18067212
Eury Perez180510201
James Paxton18047610
Zach Davies17085004
Brandon Pfaadt17084302
Anthony DeSclafani17079001
Noah Syndergaard17077102
Luis Severino17067211
Reese Olson17059300
Chase Anderson17059102
Cristopher Sanchez17057122
Bryan Woo17057212
Steven Matz16177100
Joe Musgrove16074311
Chris Flexen16069001
Luis Medina16055303
Tommy Henry15173211
Gavin Williams15058110
Touki Toussaint15257100
Nick Pivetta15238200
Zack Littell14173201
Matthew Boyd14056201
Matt Manning14055202
Tarik Skubal14039101
Luis Ortiz14039101
Carlos Rodon13072301
Connor Seabold13065101
Ty Blach13064201
Bailey Falter13154201
Max Fried13045103
Brandon Bielak13038002
Ryan Walker131111000
Cole Ragans12037002
Ben Lively12163101
Jhony Brito12055002
Dakota Hudson12146100
Kyle Muller12029001
Jose Quintana12028200
Alex Wood11161111
Nestor Cortes11054011
Jesse Scholtens11154100
Peter Lambert11136001
Michael Grove11036002
Cole Irvin11035201
Alex Faedo11124103
Ryan Weathers11023015
Sean Manaea10154000
Roansy Contreras10054010
Javier Assad10053101
Hayden Wesneski10053101
Ross Stripling10152110
Julio Teheran10045001
James Kaprielian10044011
Matt Strahm10441100
Jared Shuster10041014
Hyun Jin Ryu10026200
Emmet Sheehan10025102
John Brebbia10721000
Brandon Woodruff10017101
Matthew Liberatore10114202
Joan Adon10007201

Observations

Only six of Corbin Burnes 31 starts occurred with four days of rest. It will be interesting to track if the Orioles are aware of this and treat their ace in the same manner as the Brewers. One hint: 10 of Kyle Bradish's 29 starts happened on four days of rest, so perhaps they won't force Burnes onto an every fifth day schedule.

Perhaps because they didn't trust the back of the rotation, three Diamondbacks starters worked mostly on four days of rest. They are Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Ryne Nelson. Keep in mind that making the World Series extended the workload of Gallen and Kelly. If they continue to be pushed, their performance may suffer. It's just speculation, but sometimes details of this nature can be used to break a tie in a coin-flip scenario.

The Twins often gave their starters five days of rest. Perhaps this was because they weren't pressured to shorten the rotation due to being in a close race for a playoff berth. Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober all started at least six more games on five days of rest than they did with four. Maybe this is why Gray and Lopez avoided the IL. They both have experienced health issues. It's important to note Gray and Lopez collected 32 starts each, so the extra rest didn't affect their overall workload.

Only eight of Spencer Strider's 31 outings were with four days of rest. He enjoyed five days between efforts on 19 occasions, while he pitched on six days of rest four times. This suggests Atlanta is mindful of their ace's health, which adds comfort to those paying top dollar for one of the top-two fantasy hurlers.

Only 17 pitchers started a minimum of 20 games with at least five more starts on four days of rest than they got on five days rest. Four of them were Cubs: Jameson Taillon, Marcus Stroman, Drew Smyly and Justin Steele. Of course, the club has a new manager, with Craig Counsell replacing David Ross. Counsell was with the Brewers last season. Corbin Burnes led the league with 23 starts on five days of rest. Freddy Peralta started six times on four days and 19 with five. Only two of Wade Miley's 22 starts occurred with four days of rest. There is no guarantee Counsell handles the Cubs rotation like he did the Brewers, but it seems likely. It's conjecture, but this could help Justin Steele, adding a layer of confidence when clicking him onto your roster.

Unsurprisingly, the Angels staff started the fewest games on four days of rest. Call it the Shohei Ohtani effect. With Ohtani rehabbing from Tommy John in between clubbing homers across town, Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning, Chase Silseth and Patrick Sandoval will all likely pitch with just four days of rest this season. They're all breakout candidates but have injury or performance concerns. Working with less rest isn't enough for me to avoid any of them, but how they respond (with sample size caveats) is something to track. My leash for this quartet may be a bit shorter if their velocity is down, or stuff isn't as crisp.

I have a feeling I'm going to be referring to the usage table a lot this season, particularly for the Weekly Pitching Rankings. Hopefully you'll bookmark it too and visit it on occasion.

Want to Read More?
Subscribe to RotoWire to see the full article.

We reserve some of our best content for our paid subscribers. Plus, if you choose to subscribe you can discuss this article with the author and the rest of the RotoWire community.

Get Instant Access To This Article Get Access To This Article
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only MLB Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire MLB fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Todd Zola
Todd has been writing about fantasy baseball since 1997. He won NL Tout Wars and Mixed LABR in 2016 as well as a multi-time league winner in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Todd is now setting his sights even higher: The Rotowire Staff League. Lord Zola, as he's known in the industry, won the 2013 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year award and was named the 2017 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year. Todd is a five-time FSWA awards finalist.
Collette Calls: Thinking About Pitchers Returning From Injuries
Collette Calls: Thinking About Pitchers Returning From Injuries
MLB DFS Picks: DraftKings Plays and Strategy for Wednesday, October 30
MLB DFS Picks: DraftKings Plays and Strategy for Wednesday, October 30
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for World Series Game 5 on Wednesday, October 30
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for World Series Game 5 on Wednesday, October 30
MLB World Series Game 5 Best Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Wednesday, October 30
MLB World Series Game 5 Best Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Wednesday, October 30