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MLB Best Bets Today: Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros
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The Houston Astros face off against the Boston Red Sox today in the third game of a three-game series. The Houston Astros won the first two games in Boston (8-4 and 5-4). The Red Sox are looking to avoid the sweep today. This is the first series these two are facing off against each other and they will reconvene one more time in the regular season. The Red Sox are now 2.5 games out of Wild Card position after losing the first two games of this series. They are 61-54 on the season and have lost three games in a row now. They have won just five of their last 10 games overall. They are weirdly just 27-30 at home this season and 34-24 on the road. They are a tough 29-40 this season against teams with winning records. The Houston Astros got off to a miserable start to this season but they have battled back to take the lead in the American League West division at 61-55. They have won four games in a row and six of their last 10 games overall. They are 32-26 at home but are just .500 (29-29) on the road after winning the first two games of this series. They also have a tough record against teams with winning records (24-31).
James Paxton is making the start for the Red Sox after being let go by the Dodgers at the end of July. He has made two starts with the Red Sox this season. He allowed three earned runs in 4.1 innings in his first start and allowed two earned runs in six innings pitched against the Royals in his last start on the road. He has been very hit-or-miss this season, either pitching well or poorly. There hasn't been much in between. He has not faced the Astros yet this season. Hunter Brown is getting the start for the Astros. He got off to a brutal start this season. However, he has turned it around going 9-3 with a 2.61 ERA in his last 15 starts. He has 11 quality starts in his last 13 starts overall, so he has been pitching well and giving the Astros quality innings. He has not faced the Red Sox yet this season. The Red Sox have the fifth-highest wOBA in the league against righties since the All-Star break and have been hitting righties very well for a long time now. The Astros are ranked 20th in the league in wOBA against lefties since the All-Star break and had been struggling to hit before coming into this series.
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The Red Sox bullpen has been a big issue for them. It doesn't make any sense, though, because they have so many options. They got Chris Martin back from the injured list (IL) before this series and they made moves to acquire Lucas Sims and Luis Garcia at the trade deadline. However, they still rank dead last in bullpen ERA since the All-Star break with a brutal mark of 6.55. The Astros bullpen has pitched very well in that time, ranking ninth in the league with a 3.58 ERA. They will likely be without Bryan Abreu, who has pitched two days in a row, while the Red Sox will likely be without Zack Kelly, who also pitched two days in a row. The Astros are 11-9 since the All-Star break and 7-4 on the road, while the Red Sox are 8-12 since the All-Star break and 3-5 at home. However, this play is mostly on the Red Sox to avoid the sweep at home. They almost came back yesterday with the tying run on second base and nobody out, so I think they can avoid the home sweep.
BEST BET
Red Sox ML +114 vs. Astros (DraftKings Sportsbook)
