Spring Training Job Battles: NL Central

Our Spring Training Job Battles series continues with the National League Central, where plenty of rookies are trying to prove that they deserve an Opening Day job.

The number in parenthesis is the player's NFBC ADP since 2/15

Chicago Cubs

Third Base: Matt Shaw (216), Justin Turner (627), Vidal Brujan (718), Jon Berti (737) 

Drafters clearly want Shaw to win this job, and the Cubs seemingly want that too, as they traded away Isaac Paredes in the Kyle Tucker deal and didn't bring in an everyday third baseman. They did bring in Turner, but the now 40-year-old started just four games at third base last season, spending most of his time at designated hitter and some at first base. He can still hit, with his 117 wRC+ last season marking the 11th straight year he's finished at or above 115 in that category, but if he's the Opening Day third baseman, it's almost certainly a temporary arrangement. 

Shaw was slowed by an oblique issue to start camp but made his Cactus League debut last weekend, leaving him plenty of time to stake his claim for the job. The 23-year-old was the 13th-overall pick in the 2023 draft and ascended quickly through the minors, posting a .284/.379/.288 like with 21 homers and 31 steals in 121 games across the two highest levels last season. He looks big-league ready and could contribute across the board even as a rookie if he hits the ground running, but he'll need to prove he's healthy with a strong spring if he's to open the regular season on the major-league roster. (He's off to a 2-for-12 start but has struck out just once.)

Brujan and Berti are utility players who, like Turner, will merely be keeping the seat warm for Shaw if they find themselves starting on Opening Day. Brujan was once an interesting prospect but has earned just 550 plate appearances through his age-26 season, likely because he's slashing .189/.261/.270. Berti has at least proven his competence at the big-league level, hitting .259/.337.366 across 1,624 plate appearances, but he's now 35 years old and missed time with calf and hip injuries last season.

Fifth Starter: Ben Brown (542), Colin Rea (684), Javier Assad (696), Jordan Wicks (737)

One spot is available at the back of the Cubs' rotation behind Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd. Brown is the candidate generating the most interest from drafters and the only one with real strikeout upside, but he also has the fewest MLB starts under his belt (eight). He impressed across those eight starts as well as seven relief appearances as a rookie last season, finishing with a 3.58 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 28.8 percent strikeout rate. He's building up as a starter in camp, but as a mostly two-pitch guy (fastball/curve) with good velocity, he could also be a real weapon out of the bullpen. The plan for now is to keep him stretched out, though, which could mean a trip back to the minors.

The others are very much classic fifth starter types, trying to get by despite sub-par strikeout rates. Assad finished with a 3.73 ERA in 29 starts last season, but it came with a 1.40 WHIP and much higher ERA estimators (4.97 xERA, 4.72 SIERA). He's also no longer in the Opening Day picture due to an oblique strain, but he could get a chance to claim the job once he returns.

Rea returned from a stint in Japan with very little fanfare ahead of the 2023 season but produced a passable enough 4.40 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 58 outings (49 starts) for the Brewers over the last two years. He looks like the favorite to open the year in the role, which means he could be the one who gets to enjoy the run-suppressing cold weather in Chicago in the early part of the year, but he's 34 and offers minimal long-term upside.

Wicks battled oblique injuries last season and struggled to a 5.48 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 11 major-league outings (10 starts). The lefty is still just 25 and had some pedigree as a prospect, going 21st-overall in the 2021 draft, so the door isn't shut on him making his mark as a starter, but that could come after he figures this out in the minors, as he still has options remaining. 

Closer: Ryan Pressly (209), Porter Hodge (328)

Pressly was acquired in a trade from the Astros in January and had to waive his no-trade clause for the deal to go through, so he was presumably given some sort of assurances about his odds of winning the closer job given that he agreed to the deal. He has 112 career saves to his name, so he's certainly comfortable pitching in the ninth inning, but the 36-year-old no longer misses bats at a closer-like rate. After posting a strikeout rate of 31.9 percent or better for five straight seasons, he slipped to 27.6 percent in 2023 and then fell again in 2024 to 23.8 percent. His WHIP also crept all the way up to 1.34, while his fastball velocity fell to 93.9 mph, more than two ticks below its peak.

Pressly's decline leaves the door open for Hodge, though whether he's given more than the occasional opportunity until the point Pressly pitches his way out of the job (which may never arrive) is unclear. Hodge already earned nine saves as a rookie last year, though, and he very much looks like the closer of the future, if not the present. He cruised to a 1.88 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, with his 31.7 percent strikeout rate offsetting an elevated 11.6 percent walk rate. 

Cincinnati Reds

First Base/Third Base/Designated Hitter: Spencer Steer (141), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (244), Jeimer Candelario (357), Gavin Lux (420), Noelvi Marte (546)

For the second year in a row, the Reds entered spring training with too many interesting infielders, but for the second year in a row, the situation appears to be sorting itself out naturally. Steer is battling shoulder issues this spring and could be forced to open the year on the injured list, while Marte is taking reps with minor-leaguers in camp and owns a .406 OPS in 21 spring plate appearances, so he appears ticketed for the minors. That means Lux should be able to start at third base on Opening Day with Encarnacion-Strand and Candelario splitting first base and designated hitter in some order, though Steer's eventual return will cause a playing-time crunch. 

Closer: Alexis Diaz (178), Taylor Rogers (670)

The Reds have given no explicit sign that they're about to move Diaz out of the closer role, but if they weren't already considering it, the hamstring injury which has thus far kept him out of Cactus League play gives them a potential opportunity to do so. Diaz is on the mend and reportedly nearly ready for his spring debut, but new Reds manager Terry Francona may want to see him prove his health in game action after his ERA jumped to 3.99 last year as his strikeout rate plummeted from 30.1 percent to 22.7 percent.

The left-handed Rogers, acquired in a trade with the Giants in January, could make for a natural part of a closer platoon with Diaz should the Reds elect to play the matchups in the ninth inning, but he has 83 career saves to his name (eight more than Diaz's 75) and could win the job outright if the Reds allow for an open competition. Rogers may be getting up there in age, but the 34-year-old produced a 2.40 ERA in 60 innings last season with a strikeout rate that remained solidly above average (25.7 percent). 

Milwaukee Brewers

Third Base: Caleb Durbin (500), Tyler Black (707), Oliver Dunn (743), Andruw Monasterio (N/A) 

The Brewers acquired Durbin from the Yankees in the Devin Williams trade, and it sure looks as though the plan is for him to be the team's primary third baseman, with Joey Ortiz shifting to shortstop following Willy Adames' departure. Durbin will have to earn the job this spring, presumably, given that the Brewers haven't simply announced that he's won it, and his .172/.273/.379 slash line in his first 10 games represents a poor start. He doesn't have much left to prove in the minors, though, as he hit .287/.396/.471 with 10 homers, 29 steals with a very impressive 9.9 percent strikeout rate in 82 Triple-A games last season.

Black was a fantasy sleeper this time last season due to his basestealing prowess (he stole 55 bases in the minors in 2023), but he only earned 57 big-league plate appearances and struggled to a .561 OPS. His .803 OPS at Triple-A means he has little to prove in the minors either, but he only played nine games at third base last year and spent most of his time at first base and left field, so he might not even be part of the mix. Dunn struggled to a .597 OPS in 41 games last year, while Monasterio had a .575 OPS in 59 games. If either occupies third base on anything more than a temporary basis at the start of the year, something went wrong. 

Closer: Trevor Megill (169), Joel Payamps (621), Abner Uribe (694), Jared Koenig (745), Nick Mears (746)

Megill is the clear top candidate to take over from Devin Williams, but he hasn't officially been named to the role and was delayed by an undisclosed injury at the start of camp. He's back in action and has already made three appearances (3:2 K:BB, 1 ER in 2.2 IP), so he'll have plenty of time to ramp up for Opening Day. He saved 21 games while Williams was unavailable last season, finishing with a 2.72 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 27.3 percent strikeout rate.

Payamps (six), Uribe (three) and Koenig (one) also earned saves last season. Payamps had a 3.05 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, though his 25.1 percent strikeout rate is perhaps more suited for a setup man. Uribe got the save in the first two games of the year but quickly saw his season go off the rails, getting suspended for throwing a punch at Jose Siri on May 1 and subsequently demoted, then suffering a season-ending torn meniscus in early June. He's healthy again this spring, but there's no guarantee he's even on the major-league roster on Opening Day. Koenig had a 2.47 ERA but a much more pedestrian 3.69 SIERA and 23.8 percent strikeout rate. Mears was acquired from the Rockies at last year's deadline and had an 18:3 K:BB in 12.1 innings with the Brewers, albeit with 10 earned runs and five homers allowed.  

Pittsburgh Pirates

Catcher: Joey Bart (262), Endy Rodriguez (562), Henry Davis (644)

Bart struggled to a .219/.288/.335 line across parts of four seasons with the Giants, the team that drafted him second overall back in 2019, but he found his footing with the Pirates last season, hitting .265/.337/.462 in 80 games. That should earn him the starting job this year, but the presence of two other former top catching prospects complicates the picture. 

Rodriguez is a great athlete for a catcher and has started games at first base, second base and both outfield corners in the minors, giving him multiple paths to playing time. His big-league career has gotten off to a rocky start, however, as he struggled to a .220/.284/.328 line in his 57-game debut in 2023 before missing all of last year recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Davis was the Pirates' first-overall pick in 2021 but has struggled to a .191/.283/.307 line in 99 big-league games thus far. His .956 OPS at Triple-A last year means he has little left to prove in the minors, but he may have to work his way into the outfield picture if he's to earn regular playing time this season. 

Second Base: Nick Gonzales (548), Nick Yorke (642), Adam Frazier (750)

Gonzales is the favorite to start at second base, but the 2020 seventh-overall pick hasn't lived up to that pedigree thus far. In 129 major-league games across the last two seasons, he's hit .255/.300/.386 with nine homers and five steals. Yorke, who was acquired from the Red Sox at last year's deadline, was the 17th-overall pick in that same draft. He posted a .664 OPS in his 11-game debut last year but had a .918 OPS at Triple-A and could push Gonzales for the job. Frazier is a nine-year veteran who made enough contact to get the most out of an unremarkable profile early in his career, but his .202/.282/.294 line last season indicates his time as a regular might be over. 

Closer: David Bednar (175), Dennis Santana (687), Colin Holderman (734)

Bednar battled lat and oblique injuries last year and struggled to a 5.77 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 57.2 innings when available. The Pirates are making him earn the closer job this spring, but they didn't bring in any experienced alternatives, so it sure looks as though they're hoping he wins it. The early results are good: he has a 5:1 K:BB in four innings, allowing one earned run. Bednar recorded a 2.25 ERA and 1.06 WHIP from 2021 to 2023, so the ceiling is quite high if he proves that last year was merely a blip. Santana (3.89 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 24.0 percent strikeout rate) and Holderman (3.16 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 25.1 percent strikeout rate) are capable relievers but fit better as setup men. 

St. Louis Cardinals

Catcher: Ivan Herrera (221), Pedro Pages (670)

With Willson Contreras set to serve as the Cardinals' first baseman this season, a starting job is available behind the plate. The Cardinals said back when they announced Contreras' pitching change that Herrera and Pages would split the job, but drafters have a clear preference for the former. In 72 games last season, he slashed .301/.372/.428, with both his 20.5 percent strikeout rate and 8.9 percent barrel rate coming in slightly better than league average. The 24-year-old projected to have a solid bat as a prospect, so that comes as no surprise, but he also has a sub-par defensive reputation. 

That led to Pages passing Herrera on the depth chart late last season. Pages hit just .238/.281/.376 and projected as a poor hitter as a prospect, however, and he's not some defensive whiz even if he's better than Herrera behind the plate. He'll have his work cut out for him if he's to claim the majority of the starts this season. 

Second Base: Brendan Donovan (236), Nolan Gorman (437)

The Cardinals said back in December that the goal was to get Gorman close to 600 at-bats this season, which would seem to imply that he's the starter and that Donovan is playing elsewhere, probably in left field. But Gorman saw his strikeout rate spike to 37.6 percent last season while his slash line fell to .203/.271/.400, leading to a demotion in August. He's striking out a third of the time through nine games this spring while slashing .154/.185/.192, so it's possible his role will be smaller than the Cardinals hoped. 

In that case, Donovan (who should play close to everyday across multiple spots) would spend most of his time at second base. In 652 plate appearances last year, Donovan didn't offer much in terms of power (14 homers) or speed (five steals), but he struck out just 12.4 percent of the time and slashed a solid .278/.342/.417, good for a 115 wRC+. 

Left Field: Brendan Donovan (236), Lars Nootbaar (259)

This isn't a position battle in the direct sense, so we'll keep it brief. Donovan will start here if Gorman earns an everyday role at second base, while Nootbaar will start here if Victor Scott or Michael Siani win the job in center field (more on that in a moment). Both Donovan and Nootbaar are starting-caliber players, so it's very unlikely that both Gorman and Scott or Siani win everyday jobs, forcing these two into a fight for starts in left. In some sense, then, the position battle in St. Louis is really between Gorman, Scott and Siani.

Center Field: Lars Nootbaar (259), Victor Scott (423), Michael Siani (724)

Nootbaar has spent more time in the corners than center during his career, but as the only member of this trio with a proven big-league bat, he could be the Cardinals' primary center fielder this season. He's a career .246/.348/.425 hitter (116 wRC+) and grades out as an average defender in center according to DRS, UZR and OAA, so the Cardinals wouldn't be sacrificing too much defensively if he gets the job.

Scott and Siani are excellent defenders in center, but they'll need to be to make up for their very poor bats. Scott was a near-universal fantasy sleeper this time last year after stealing 94 bases in the minors the year prior, but he hit just .179/.219/.283 in his 53-game big-league debut and also struggled to a .210/.294/.303 line at Triple-A. Siani stepped up in his place and stole 20 bases in just 298 plate appearances, but he hit just .228/.285/.285 and doesn't look like more than a fourth outfielder. Scott has a 1.222 OPS this spring while Siani's sits at .205, so the hype train could get going again. 

Fourth/Fifth Starter: Quinn Mathews (506), Michael McGreevy (567), Andre Pallante (612), Steven Matz (718)

Two spots are available after Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde and Miles Mikolas in the Cardinals' rotation, but the candidates are arguably being drafted in the reverse order of their likelihood of breaking camp in the rotation. Mathews has already been reassigned to minor-league camp, but he's a highly-rated prospect (ranked 41st on James Anderson's top 400) who could get his chance early in the year and could be worth stashing in some leagues.

McGreevy is also a top-100 prospect (ranked 76th) and has more of a chance of breaking camp in the majors, having already made four appearances (three starts) last year. He cruised to a 1.96 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in that brief debut, striking out 18 and walking just two in 23 innings, and he's walked none and allowed just one hit in five scoreless innings this spring.

McGreevy may be stuck with nothing more than a bullpen role to open the year, however, if the Cardinals give the jobs to the guys who have been there before. Pallante made 20 starts and nine relief appearances last season, finishing with a 3.78 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 121.1 innings. He doesn't strike out many batters (18.5 percent), but his elite groundball rate (61.8 percent) makes him a fine fit as a back-end starter. That's all Matz is at this point, too, and his 5.08 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 44.1 innings last year suggests he may not even be that, but he'll likely get one more chance.