Over the weekend, I asked the RotoWire staff for their favorite sleepers and busts for this season. Yesterday, I shared the group's top hitter sleepers. Today, we're onto sleeper pitchers.
The players are listed in order of their ADP in the RotoWire Online Championship. I've included each writer's explanation for their pick from their response to my email, or in some cases, I've used excerpts of articles they've written this offseason.
Intro by Erik Halterman
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Pitchers
Brandon Pfaadt, SP, Diamondbacks (ADP 185)
Pfaadt had a 4.71 ERA over 32 starts, but his 3.60 FIP tells another story. His K/BB rate rose to 4.40, his groundball percentage rose to 41.5, and he got his HR/9 rate down to 1.19. — Chris Morgan
Spencer Arrighetti, SP, Astros (ADP 200)
The Astros tend to churn out elite starting pitchers every season, and Arrighetti may be that guy this year. He showed glimpses of his ability in the closing months of last season, posting a 2.90 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 11.4 K/9 rate across his final 11 starts. That makes it shocking that he's falling outside the Top 200, making him an exciting pick late in drafts. — Joel Bartilotta
Liam Hendriks, RP, Red Sox (ADP 246)
I'm going to go with a reliever here. After missing virtually all of the past two seasons, Hendriks caught on with Boston, and most didn't really know what to expect. He struggled this spring, but as he settles in, he looks
Over the weekend, I asked the RotoWire staff for their favorite sleepers and busts for this season. Yesterday, I shared the group's top hitter sleepers. Today, we're onto sleeper pitchers.
The players are listed in order of their ADP in the RotoWire Online Championship. I've included each writer's explanation for their pick from their response to my email, or in some cases, I've used excerpts of articles they've written this offseason.
Intro by Erik Halterman
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Pitchers
Brandon Pfaadt, SP, Diamondbacks (ADP 185)
Pfaadt had a 4.71 ERA over 32 starts, but his 3.60 FIP tells another story. His K/BB rate rose to 4.40, his groundball percentage rose to 41.5, and he got his HR/9 rate down to 1.19. — Chris Morgan
Spencer Arrighetti, SP, Astros (ADP 200)
The Astros tend to churn out elite starting pitchers every season, and Arrighetti may be that guy this year. He showed glimpses of his ability in the closing months of last season, posting a 2.90 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 11.4 K/9 rate across his final 11 starts. That makes it shocking that he's falling outside the Top 200, making him an exciting pick late in drafts. — Joel Bartilotta
Liam Hendriks, RP, Red Sox (ADP 246)
I'm going to go with a reliever here. After missing virtually all of the past two seasons, Hendriks caught on with Boston, and most didn't really know what to expect. He struggled this spring, but as he settles in, he looks like the closer of old and piles up saves. — Brad Johnson
Kris Bubic, SP, Royals (ADP 312)
Bubic came back from Tommy John surgery last year looking super sharp, both during his time in the minors (3.53 ERA, 42:13 K:BB in 35.2 innings) and the majors (2.67 ERA, 39:5 K:BB in 30.1 frames). All of his time in the majors was spent in relief, but he's moving back to the rotation in 2025 and is expected to open the year as the Royals' fifth starter. The velocity bump he showed in the bullpen last season has stuck around this spring, and the sweeper he introduced last year still looks nasty. He's available in the late rounds of your draft and has real breakout potential. — Ryan Boyer
Hayden Birdsong, SP, Giants (ADP 350)
The idea of identifying a true sleeper pitcher this time of year is vexing, but I do think I'm firmly in the driver's seat of the Hayden Birdsong hype train, and unlike the Jesus Luzardo and Ryan Weathers hype trains, this one hasn't gained much steam because I think most assume Birdsong opens in the minors. Even if he does open in the minors, I am willing to stash him for a few weeks, and I think when you analyze what Birdsong, Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison, Landen Roupp and Keaton Winn are capable of in 2025, Birdsong is the only one I can envision throwing 150-plus innings. If most of those innings come in the majors, he could push for 170 strikeouts, and I'm buying notable control gains this year, when factoring in age, how quickly he moved through the minors and his early spring success. — James Anderson
Zebby Matthews, SP, Twins (ADP 352)
Zebby Matthews had an ugly 6.69 ERA in the majors last season, so that may hide his strong minor-league stats and impressive performances this spring. Chris Paddack and Simeon Woods Richardson may not last long in the Minnesota rotation, and Matthews could surprise given his miniscule walk rate (1.0 BB/9 career in minors), strong strikeout rates (10.2 K/9 career in minors) and velocity (94.9 average mph fastball in the majors). — Peter Schoenke
Ben Brown, SP/RP, Cubs (ADP 357)
While Brown pitched in long relief in the season opener in Tokyo, that doesn't necessarily guarantee he's failed to make the Cubs' rotation. Unlike the other members of the Cubs' fifth starter battle (Colin Rea, Jordan Wicks and Javier Assad), Brown can actually miss bats, posting a 28.8 percent strikeout rate in his 55.1-inning debut last year, and he didn't have notable control problems either, walking 8.6 percent of opposing batters. It's possible he spends large parts of the year as a multi-inning weapon out of the pen, which limits the leagues he's usable in, but he'll offer real strikeout upside if he's able to hold down a rotation spot. — Erik Halterman
Craig Yoho, RP, Brewers (ADP 361)
Of course I have to highlight a (possible) closer. Yoho's changeup is devastating, similar to a recent Brewers closer who went on to establish himself as one of the best in the league. Yoho doesn't throw super hard, but I don't have much faith that Trevor Megill will remain healthy or effective. — Ryan Rufe
Noah Cameron, SP, Royals (undrafted)
Cameron will be the Royals' next man up. He's yet to pitch in the majors, but he's done extremely well in the minors the past few seasons. He had a 30.7% K-BB in 65.2 innings for the system in 2022, a 20.8% K-BB% in 107.1 innings in 2023, and pitched to a 21.1% K-BB% in 128.2 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last season. — Jason Collette, excerpted from "Collette Calls: AL Central Bold Predictions"
