Over the weekend, I asked the RotoWire staff for their favorite sleepers and busts for this season. On Monday, I shared the group's top hitter sleepers, and on Tuesday, I shared our top pitcher sleepers. Wednesday, we moved onto bust hitters, and today we're wrapping the series up with bust pitchers.
The players are listed in order of their ADP in the RotoWire Online Championship. I've included each writer's explanation for their pick from their response to my email, or in some cases, I've used excerpts of articles they've written this offseason.
Intro by Erik Halterman
Fantasy Baseball Busts: Pitchers
Garrett Crochet, SP, Red Sox (ADP 32)
All his peripheral metrics are outstanding, but I have a hard time paying a near first-round draft price for a pitcher with just one season of 140 innings and a previously shaky injury history. Sure, he's healthy now, but I want more of a proven health track record if I'm taking a pitcher that early. — Peter Schoenke
Corbin Burnes, SP, Diamondbacks (ADP 39)
Burnes' strikeout rate has declined for four straight years, going from 36.7 percent to 35.6 percent, 30.5 percent, 25.5 percent and finally 23.1 percent last year. While he combined that with a good walk rate (6.1 percent), that pairing isn't fantasy ace material. It looks more like Aaron Nola (24.0 K%, 6.1 BB%, ADP 93), Luis Castillo (24.3 K%, 6.5 BB%, ADP 101), or even someone like Nathan Eovaldi (23.9 K%, 6.0 BB%, ADP
Over the weekend, I asked the RotoWire staff for their favorite sleepers and busts for this season. On Monday, I shared the group's top hitter sleepers, and on Tuesday, I shared our top pitcher sleepers. Wednesday, we moved onto bust hitters, and today we're wrapping the series up with bust pitchers.
The players are listed in order of their ADP in the RotoWire Online Championship. I've included each writer's explanation for their pick from their response to my email, or in some cases, I've used excerpts of articles they've written this offseason.
Intro by Erik Halterman
Fantasy Baseball Busts: Pitchers
Garrett Crochet, SP, Red Sox (ADP 32)
All his peripheral metrics are outstanding, but I have a hard time paying a near first-round draft price for a pitcher with just one season of 140 innings and a previously shaky injury history. Sure, he's healthy now, but I want more of a proven health track record if I'm taking a pitcher that early. — Peter Schoenke
Corbin Burnes, SP, Diamondbacks (ADP 39)
Burnes' strikeout rate has declined for four straight years, going from 36.7 percent to 35.6 percent, 30.5 percent, 25.5 percent and finally 23.1 percent last year. While he combined that with a good walk rate (6.1 percent), that pairing isn't fantasy ace material. It looks more like Aaron Nola (24.0 K%, 6.1 BB%, ADP 93), Luis Castillo (24.3 K%, 6.5 BB%, ADP 101), or even someone like Nathan Eovaldi (23.9 K%, 6.0 BB%, ADP 210) or Kutter Crawford (23.1 K%, 6.7 BB%, ADP 335). Toss in the fact that Burnes is now in the first year of a huge contract at hitter-friendly Chase Field and it becomes hard to take him anywhere close to his current price despite his history of strong ratios. — Erik Halterman
Jacob deGrom, SP, Rangers (ADP 51)
I truly believe that deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball when he's healthy, but what are we doing here? This guy hasn't cracked 100 innings since 2019 and has thrown just 41 innings over the last two seasons. We all know how good deGrom can be, but using a fourth-round pick on him seems insane with that injury risk. — Joel Bartilotta
Shota Imanaga, SP, Cubs (ADP 82)
He had an impressive 6.21 K/BB rate in his first season after coming over from Japan, but the 31-year-old also allowed 1.40 home runs per nine innings. Imanaga also benefited from a robust 80.2 left-on-base percentage, so this year his ERA may look more like the 3.71 FIP he had in 2024. — Chris Morgan
Spencer Schwellenbach, SP, Braves (ADP 94)
Schwellenbach increased his career workload from 2021 to 2023 by 74.5 percent in 2024 alone, and the year-over-year increase from 2023 to 2024 was a staggering 159.4 percent...Simply put, we do not know how his young body is going to bounce back from such an increase in workload and that unknown is what concerns me, just as it did with [Spencer] Strider last season. — Jason Collette, excerpted from, "Collette Calls: 2025 NL East Bold Predictions"
Roki Sasaki, SP, Dodgers (ADP 99)
Sasaki has looked as good as advertised this spring, showing off a devastating splitter and a return to the velocity he had displayed prior to last year's dip. As long as the velo holds, my worries here are entirely workload-related. Sasaki has had past elbow problems and averaged just over 100 innings per season in his four years in Japan. The Dodgers have essentially already clinched a playoff spot and have little reason to extend him much beyond that 100-inning mark in 2025. No matter how good he is on a per-inning basis, it's going to be very difficult for Sasaki to turn a profit considering where he's going in drafts. — Ryan Boyer
Max Fried, SP, Yankees (ADP 102)
He has spent time on the injured list with forearm injuries each of the last two seasons and just signed a huge contract to pitch for the Yankees. Maybe Fried staves off his second Tommy John surgery for another year, but even if he's healthy, there are literally over a dozen starting pitchers going later who I project for better statistical seasons. — James Anderson
Reynaldo Lopez, SP, Braves (ADP 168)
Lopez was outstanding last year in his transition from reliever back to starter, but his velocity has dipped this spring and I expect his surface stats to regress in 2025. If he was going three or four rounds later, maybe I'd be interested. — Ryan Rufe
Shane Baz, SP, Rays (ADP 193)
People have been waiting for Shane Baz to put everything together, but he's still pitched only 119 MLB innings over four seasons. It has slowed his progress, and when coupled with pitching in a new more hitter-friendly park his 2025 takes a step backwards. — Brad Johnson
