RotoWire Staff Picks: Hitter Busts

Over the weekend, I asked the RotoWire staff for their favorite sleepers and busts for this season. On Monday, I shared the group's top hitter sleepers, and on Tuesday, I shared our top pitcher sleepers. Today, we're onto bust hitters, and for the first time, we have two of my colleagues landing on the same player.

The players are listed in order of their ADP in the RotoWire Online Championship. I've included each writer's explanation for their pick from their response to my email, or in some cases, I've used excerpts of articles they've written this offseason.

Intro by Erik Halterman

Fantasy Baseball Busts: Hitters

Fernando Tatis Jr., OF, Padres (ADP 11)

His two seasons since his PED suspension haven't been commensurate with a first-round draft pick, as he's failed to have an OPS over .832. His ISO was .329 in his spectacular 2021 season, but he's had just a .192 and .216 ISO since. Not that those are bad, but expecting 30-plus homers again may be a stretch. — Peter Schoenke

Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Braves (ADP 32)

I truly hope I'm wrong, and it's worth noting that Acuna's ADP in NFBC leagues has fallen back by about five picks so far in March versus January and February. Still, I just can't approve of using a top-35 pick on a guy I know is going to miss at least five or six weeks and who has said he won't do as much running this season. Acuna wasn't the same player immediately after his first ACL surgery, and while Atlanta is taking a more deliberate pace with him this time around, my expectations are lowered. — Ryan Boyer

Yainer Diaz, C, Astros (ADP 58)

For a catcher to go this early in drafts, he needs a path to get himself into the lineup virtually every game. William Contreras, Adley Rutschman and Salvador Perez can start frequently at designated hitter, while Willson Contreras will be the Cardinals' everyday first baseman. But while Diaz started 36 times at DH last season, Houston's plan this year is for Yordan Alvarez to spend very little time in the field, so Diaz won't get the at-bats necessary to be an elite fantasy catcher unless Alvarez misses an extended period. — Erik Halterman

Marcell Ozuna, UT, Braves (ADP 66)

He likely won't play in all 162 games again, for starters. The 34-year-old designated hitter with no speed and limited athleticism probably won't have a .359 BABIP again, either. — Chris Morgan

Kyle Schwarber, UT, Phillies (ADP 72)

Everyone's favorite power hitter who offers very little else continues to make fantasy owners pay for the longballs. His batting average drops below the Mendoza line, and his poor play in the field virtually limits him to DHing. — Brad Johnson

Luis Robert, OF, White Sox (ADP 79)

It's tough to invest a top-100 pick on someone who has averaged 399 plate appearances per season over the past four years. — Ryan Rufe

He has the talent to pay off a seventh-round pick (his ADP drops to 91 in the Main Event) and obviously a trade is probable if he's healthy this summer, but Robert's average, on-base percentage and hard-hit rate have declined in three straight years while his strikeout rate has taken a big jump in each of the past two years. Plus, he averages just over 100 games per season. Give me Seiya Suzuki, Bryan Reynolds or Riley Greene, who all go later. — James Anderson

Mark Vientos, 3B, Mets (ADP 99)

Vientos broke out with 27 homers last season, but that will be tough to duplicate. He never surpassed that total in any season in the minors, posting a .205 average and .610 OPS in his first two years at this level. That, paired with the fact that he had no steals last year, makes Vientos a tough sell for fantasy purposes in the middle rounds. — Joel Bartilotta

Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs (ADP 133)

I almost envision folks looking at PCA and thinking back to this time last season when Jarren Duran had an ADP of 161, hoping to strike gold twice with what are perceived to be similar skillsets. So, let's compare 2023 Duran against 2024 PCA by StatCast percentile rankings to see how well this comparison holds up:

Yes, both players can fly in the field and on the basepaths, but the rest of the comparison simply doesn't hold up on paper. — Jason Collette, excerpted from "Collette Calls: 2025 NL Central Bold Predictions"