This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
Friday's busy schedule in the majors presents a great opportunity if you're looking to play PrizePicks for the first time. For those unfamiliar with the platform, it provides a unique spin on DFS in which you pick two, three or four players and predict if each will go over or under their projected fantasy score.
If this is your first time playing on PrizePicks, be sure to sign up using our promotional offer. New members who sign up and make their first deposit get a free 2-pick entry to win $25 and a 25% first deposit instant match. For the instant match promotion, the maximum deposit is $4,000 for $1,000 in Promo Money. If downloading the app, use promo code: WIRE.
Let's dive in and discuss some players to target and avoid while you wade through the options for your entry.
Players to Target
Freddie Freeman vs. Jose Urena (Marlins): Over 7.0 FP: The best thing about Freeman is that he's an on-base machine. He has a career .375 wOBA and has been even better out of the gate this year with a .400 wOBA. He's always been one to draw walks and he's on pace for what would be a career-high 15.6 percent walk rate this season. To top it off, he also provides a power punch with his career .205 ISO.
While he hasn't been bad versus left-handed pitchers in his career, he's shined with a 145 wRC+ against righties. He'll certainly be facing an underwhelming righty in Urena, who has just a 15.9 percent strikeout rate for his career. Urena is also off to a bad start with a 4.28 xFIP and a 1.55 WHIP, making the over a very appealing route to take.
Tommy Pham vs. Dan Straily (Orioles): Over 8.5 FP: After a breakout campaign in 2017, big things were expected of Pham heading into last season. However, after recording a .320 wOBA with the Cardinals, he was dealt to the Rays at the trade deadline. His move to Tampa proved to be the turning point of his season, as he recorded a .447 wOBA after the trade. That number was certainly aided by his abnormally high .442 BABIP, but his success has carried over with a .367 wOBA this season.
While this might seem like a big number for him to hit, he has an extremely favorable matchup against the Orioles terrible pitching staff. Straily has been about as bad as it gets with a 7.04 xFIP and a 1.66 WHIP. Roll with the over here.
Brandon Belt vs. Sonny Gray (Reds): Under 6.0 FP: It's hard to get excited about most of the hitters on the Giants, Belt included. After making his first All-Star team in 2016, he's been a disappointment due to a combination of injuries and poor play. He enters this game in a slump, hitting 9-for-41 (.220) with a 26 percent strikeout rate across his last 13 games.
Don't let Gray's 0-4 record fool you, he's off to an excellent start with a 2.85 xFIP and a 0.98 WHIP. He even has a career-high 30.3 percent strikeout rate. With how poorly Belt is playing right now, taking the under is the way to go.
Players to Avoid
Jonathan Villar vs. Tyler Glasnow (Rays): 5.5 FP: At first glance, selecting the under might seem to be the way to go with Villar. Glasnow has been spectacular through his first six starts, recording a 3.13 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP and a 27.7 percent strikeout rate. However, Villar is on a hot streak that has seen him hit 13-for-41 (.317) with five doubles and three steals across his last 10 games. This could go either way based on the low fantasy projection.
Gary Sanchez vs. Kyle Gibson (Twins): 7.0 FP: The Yankees injury-riddled lineup received a badly needed boost when Sanchez was activated from the IL. The good news is that he has slugged two home runs and recorded seven RBI across six games since his return. The bad news is that he's 4-for-23 (.174) with 10 strikeouts during that stretch. The under initially looks appealing, but with his power upside, it might be best to just avoid him entirely.
Daniel Vogelbach vs. Shane Bieber (Indians): 6.5 FP: One of the more pleasant surprises in baseball this season has been the play of Vogelbach, who has recorded a .405 ISO and a .468 wOBA. He has cut down on his strikeouts while increasing his walk rate to 20.8 percent. So, why not just take the over at this reasonable fantasy projection? Well, he's started to regress by hitting 4-for-23 (.174) over his last nine games. This is also a tough matchup against Bieber, who doesn't allow a lot of home runs and has a 1.06 WHIP over his first six outings. Steer clear of picking a side with Vogelbach.
