Offseason Deep Dives: Matthew Boyd

Matthew Boyd hadn't started more than 15 games or thrown more than 78.2 innings over the past five regular seasons when the Cubs inked him to a two-year, $29 million contract last winter. The investment proved to be a wise one, with Boyd going 14-8 while putting up a 3.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 154:42 K:BB over 179.2 innings, covering 31 regular-season starts. 

For fantasy purposes, Boyd finished as the No. 17 starting pitcher and No. 84 overall performer, per RotoWire's Earned Auction Values. Considering he was selected well outside the first 300 picks in NFBC drafts, that's quite a profit you turned if you took a flier on the southpaw this past spring.

Can Boyd keep it up heading into the 2026 campaign?

Back in 2019 with the Tigers, Boyd struck out a whopping 238 batters across 185.1 innings and posted a 30.2 percent strikeout rate. In 2025, his strikeout rate was just 21.4 percent, which was below the league average of 22.2 percent. So, yes, Boyd is going about things a little differently than he did the last time he put together a full season.

Boyd still relies heavily on his four-seamer. It's been his most-used pitch in all 11 of his big-league seasons. However, in 2019 he served up 25 home runs on the pitch and the offering registered a minus-9 on Baseball Savant's Run Value. In 2025, opponents went deep 10 times off Boyd's four-seamer, and the pitch ranked plus-10 in Run Value. That was the highest mark of any of his pitches this season, and it was the 19th-best among four-seamers for all starting pitchers.

As you can see below, Boyd has dropped his arm angle since his return from flexor tendon (September 2021) and Tommy John (June 2023) surgeries.

The league average arm angle for a left-handed pitcher in 2025 was 39 degrees, so Boyd was well below that mark. The southpaw has always been better at getting horizontal movement on his four-seamer than vertical movement, and embracing the lower arm angle has only enhanced that ability, as you can see below. Five inches of armside horizontal break was the 10th-most of any starting pitcher in 2025.

You might recall that home runs were a league-wide issue for pitchers in 2019, and no one surrendered more in the American League that year than Boyd's 39. That said, while Boyd's gopheritis in 2019 can be attributed in part to the juiced ball, his improvement in home run suppression in 2025 can be traced in no small part to a much better fastball, and also a better changeup that plays well off that heater.

Boyd told Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic before the season that he believes his flexor tendon and Tommy John surgeries cropped up in part due to him using a new changeup which required him to pronate. He focuses more on seam-shifted wake with the changeup he throws now, and that offering earned a plus-9 Run Value from Baseball Savant in 2025, which was the fifth-highest in baseball for that pitch. (Tarik Skubal is also a seam-shifted wake guy with his changeup, and that offering had the highest Run Value grade of any pitch at plus-25.)

There were a couple things working in Boyd's favor in 2025. One of them is likely to continue to benefit him in 2026. The other is less certain.

The Cubs' excellent defense was hugely important to Boyd and the team's other pitchers last season, as they ranked first in the National League in Statcast's Fielding Run Value and second in the NL in Outs Above Average. There's no reason to believe Chicago won't be among the league's best defensive clubs again in 2026. It's very early in the offseason, but the only player the Cubs seem likely to lose from their everyday lineup is Kyle Tucker. Tucker has been an above-average defender in right field for the bulk of his career, but he came in at minus-2 in Outs Above Average in 2025. A shift from Tucker to Seiya Suzuki would surely be a downgrade, though the Cubs could keep Suzuki as their primary designated hitter and add another right fielder. Either way, it's undoubtedly going to be a plus defensive unit again in 2026.

Another thing Boyd and the Cubs' pitching staff benefitted from in 2025 was the unusual number of times the wind blew in at Wrigley Field. Per Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com, in the 81 games played at Wrigley through the wild-card round, the wind blew in 51 times, while it blew out 19 times and had a crosswind on 12 occasions. It's the second year in a row that it blew in often, though it was less pronounced in 2024, featuring 39 days when it blew in and 21 apiece when it blew out or there was a crosswind.

Traditionally, the wind would blow out more often than not during the summer at Wrigley Field, creating a favorable offensive environment. It's been the opposite the last two years, and Cubs head groundskeeper Dan Kiermaier noted in Rogers' article that he's uncertain what the cause is. There have been renovations around Wrigley in recent years, which could be a factor in how the wind plays. Over the past two years, Wrigley Field ranks 26th in overall Park Factors and 16th for home runs, per Baseball Savant. In 2023, it ranked 10th overall and 10th for home runs.

We can't say with certainty that the trend will continue, but if it does, it's hugely beneficial for Boyd, who is a flyball pitcher. Last season, Boyd had a 2.51 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 79:14 K:BB over 89.2 innings covering 15 home starts, while he collected a 3.90 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 75:28 K:BB across 90 frames in 16 road outings. He did give up more home runs at home (11) than on the road (eight).

Realistically, Boyd is probably due for some level of regression with the home run ball even if the Wrigley Field wind trend continues, as he had an 8.4 percent HR/FB rate in 2025 after coming into the season with a career 13.4 percent mark. He could regain some of that loss with a few more strikeouts, though, which is a reasonable expectation given his track record.

In early NFBC drafts, Boyd's ADP currently sits at 234.9, and he's the 94th pitcher coming off the board. That allows for profit even if you bake in some regression.