This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Since the all-star break, the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Dodgers, have the best record at 17-8, but they have company right on their heels. The Chicago Cubs continue to surge up the standings and are 17-9 and scoring a league-best 6.62 runs per game since the break. The Milwaukee Brewers are 13-12 since the break and are somehow maintaining a 2.5-game lead over the Cubs and the Cincinnati Reds for the NL Central division lead. The race to the finish is going to be filled with day-to-day drama and excitement as four of the six division leaders hold on to three or fewer-game leads with roughly 47 games left on the MLB regular season schedule.
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The Dodgers are Getting Healthy
The Los Angeles Dodgers quietly have built a 6-game lead in the NL West standings having won nine of their last 10 games and now trail the Atlanta Braves by just 4.5 games for the best NL record. Since the break, they are scoring a second-best 6.08 RPG and league-best in outscoring their foes by a total of 47 runs. The Atlanta Braves are sleep-walking their way to the NL East Divisional crown with a 9.5-game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies. However, the Braves are just 12-12 since the break despite scoring 6.03 RPG. Their starting pitching has not been good and as a result, they are allowing 5.38 RPG and have only outscored their foes by 16 runs.
So, the futures market prices the Braves at +140 and the Dodgers at +200, but the newcomer to the Top-3 are the Phillies, who I like at +1000 to win the NL pennant. The Phillies are 33-22 in home games and will play 26 of their remaining 46 games at their hitter-friendly Citizens Bank ballpark.
Can the Phillies Keep Winning?
One of the best moments of this season was when the Phillies fans, who are known for their outrageous booing and raucous moments, gave the struggling Trea Turner a standing ovation seven games ago. Since that moment, Turner has hit safely in seven consecutive games getting 10 hits in 27 at-bats for a 0.370 batting average including four doubles and two home runs. At the same time, the entire Phillies team has rallied behind Turner, especially Bryce Harper, and power-hitting lead-off man Kyle Schwarber. The dugout chemistry is second-to-none and they will keep winning and it would be surprising if they put some heat on the Braves come September.
The Phillies start a 3-game inter-league series against the AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins, who hold a 3.5-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians. I like the Phillies to win this series and like them to win the first game Friday with Cristopher Sanchez on the hill. Shockingly, the left-hander is winless at 0-3 in 10 starts despite having a solid 3.44 ERA and a 0.955 WHIP spanning 52 1/3 innings of work. He is coming off his work start of the season allowing six earned runs including two home runs in a 9-6 Phillies come-from-behind win over the Kansas City Royals. He will bounce back with a solid effort and then the bullpen can take over and dominate the remainder of the game.
The Phillies bullpen has evolved into one of the most dominating units in MLB. Over their last seven games, they have posted a 3.18 ERA, 1.184 WHIP, just six free passes, and 15 strikeouts in 17 innings of work. In 55 home games, the relievers have posted a2.94 ERA, 1.184 WHIP, and 199 strikeouts spanning 1286 2/3 innings of work. In 38 inter-league games, the bullpen has amassed a 2.68 ERA, 1.079 WHIP with 140 strikeouts over 117 2/3 innings of work.
A Situational MLB Betting System Supporting the Phillies Using the Run Line
The following situational betting system has produced a 69-36 record for 65.7% winning bets over the previous five seasons. The requirements are to bet on a team using the run liner that is facing a foe that is coming off three straight losses to a divisional foe and has won between 51 and 55% of their games on the season.
Drilling down a bit further we learn that if that foe was shutout in the third consecutive loss to a divisional foe, our team has gone 11-2 on the money line averaging a -142 wager and earning a 44% ROI and an 11-2 record using the run line averaging a -125 -1.5 run line wager and earning a 57% ROI over the past five seasons.
I am on a 47-15 MLB winning run with my 8-unit best bets on a 5,8, and 10-Unit grading. I like the Phillies tonight and will bet this game by placing a 6-Unit bet on the run line and then use the LIVE in-game betting market to bet the Phillies using the money line if they fall behind at any point during the first three innings. The Phillies have won 25 games in which they trailed this season ranking fifth most and have won seven of these games since the all-star break ranking second-most in MLB.
MLB Expert Pick Tonight:
- Phillies RL (+120, DraftKings Sportsbook)
