This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Baseball series.
As football season ramps up, baseball season winds down. At least the regular season does, which is the end of the line for many of MLB's teams. For now, though, we still get Sundays packed with baseball. The first pitch Sunday is at 1:35 p.m. ET, and we have a full slate to work with. Here are my DFS recommendations.
Pitching
Brandon Woodruff, MIL vs. WAS ($55): Woodruff has a 1.07 ERA at home this season. Sure, that's only over 25.1 innings on account of injury, but he has a 2.04 ERA in Milwaukee since 2021. The Nationals hit for average but are likely to finish in the bottom 10 in runs scored. For that, they can blame the fact they sit 29th in home runs.
Framber Valdez, HOU at KC ($41): The lefty Valdez has taken a slight step back, though his 3.32 ERA is still quite good. He still keeps the ball in the park, and his 2.38 walks per nine innings are the lowest of his career aside from 2020. The Royals are in the bottom six in runs scored, and given how many lefties are in their preferred lineup, this matchup is tough for them.
Reid Detmers, LAA vs. DET ($34): The later starts Sunday feature a litany of poor pitching options, but Detmers is the one I would consider. He has a 3.00 ERA over his last five starts, and on the season he's struck out 10.07 batters per nine innings. The Tigers, meanwhile, are in the bottom three in runs scored and team OPS. If you want to save some salary, Detmers at home is the way to go.
Top Targets
Hitting .306 with 17 homers and 13 stolen bases would be sufficient for any second baseman at this time of the year, but Jose Altuve ($26) has done that in only 77 games. He's been bolstered by a .958 OPS versus righties and an 1.071 OPS on the road. Jordan Lyles will likely have pitched over 1,500 innings in MLB by the time the 2023 season ends, and he has a career 5.25 ERA. Among pitchers with that kind of longevity, the righty probably has had the worst career of any pitcher of his generation.
Few hitters walk as infrequently as the rookie Ezequiel Tovar ($15), but he's tallied 15 homers and 11 stolen bases as a shortstop. He's also slugged .470 against lefties and .450 at home (though his lack of walks leaves him with a poor OBP in any scenario). Sean Manaea is slated to start Sunday, and he has a 6.19 ERA on the road. Now, the Padres may pull the southpaw quickly, but since Tovar is a righty I'm not so worried about the bullpen.
Bargain Bats
Adley Rutschman ($14) is a catcher with a .364 OBP and 18 home runs, which is a good starting point. While the switch hitter has not shown a clear preference toward lefties or righties yet, his preference for hitting at home has already emerged. He has an .858 OPS in Baltimore in his career. Zack Littell has a 4.43 ERA over his last six starts, having allowed nine home runs in that time.
Over the last three weeks, J.D. Davis ($14) has a .951 OPS. Now, he gets a series at Coors Field. Chris Flexen has allowed 2.41 homers per nine innings this season, and his fellow righties have hit a staggering .346 against him.
Stacks to Consider
Padres at Athletics (Ken Waldichuk): Fernando Tatis ($22), Xander Bogaerts ($18), Ha-Seong Kim ($14)
Waldichuk is coming off a strong start against the Astros, but I'm not buying it. He has a 5.33 FIP, an 11.9 percent walk rate and has allowed 1.50 homers per nine innings. Sure, the lefty has a 3.97 ERA at home, but that's not exactly good. Righties have hit .270 against him in his career, so I will take this speedy trio of right-handed hitters.
If the Padres hadn't proven so disappointing, we'd be talking more about Tatis having 25 homers and 26 stolen bases in 128 games. While he's hit some speed bumps against righties in his return, he's posted a .937 OPS against southpaws. Bogaerts has 18 homers and 16 stolen bases, so he may have his first 20/20 campaign. The way he's been playing makes that feel more likely, as Bogaerts has an 1.044 OPS over the last three weeks. Kim has a .356 OBP with 17 homers and 36 steals. The second baseman has shown significant power against lefties as well, as he has a .912 OPS in those matchups.
Pirates vs. Yankees (Carlos Rodon): Bryan Reynolds ($19), Ke'Bryan Hayes ($18), Liover Peguero ($10)
It would appear righting the ship is not in the cards for Rodon this season. He's made 11 starts and has a 6.30 FIP. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up, and he's allowed 2.28 homers per nine innings. In fact, the Mets are the only team to fail to hit a home run off of Rodon. I expect the Pirates to go yard, and this trio is a good shout to make that happen.
Reynolds has stuffed the stat sheets, as he's hit .272 with 22 homers, 12 stolen bases, and over 70 runs scored and RBI. He's hot as well with a .915 OPS over the last three weeks. Hayes has batted .273 with 13 home runs and 10 swiped bags, but he also has seven triples. Notably, he has a .933 OPS at home. Peguero was called up to handle shortstop, and he's hit .248 with seven homers and four stolen bases in 48 games. The righty has an .849 OPS against southpaws like Rodon.
Cardinals vs. Phillies (Taijuan Walker): Paul Goldschmidt ($18), Jordan Walker ($17), Lars Nootbaar ($15)
On the season, Taijuan Walker has a 5.14 ERA on the road. Additionally, since the start of July he has a 4.83 ERA across 11 starts. Righties have a higher batting average against Walker, but lefties have hit more homers in fewer plate appearances, so I have a mix in this stack.
Goldschmidt has a .365 OBP with 24 homers and 11 stolen bases. While his numbers have dropped against lefties this season, he has an .812 OPS versus righties, as well as an .845 OPS at home. So far in his career, the rookie Jordan Walker has shown a preference to face his fellow right handers. He has an .824 OPS in those matchups, as well as an .826 OPS at home. The lefty Nootbaar has a .377 OBP with 13 homers and 10 swiped bags. His overall power numbers aren't great, but he's slugged .463 against righties in 2023.
