This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A busy 13-game slate is on tap for Tuesday's main contest at FanDuel, getting started at a traditional 7:05 p.m. EDT. Just eight of the 25 pitchers are in the pay-up tier at $9,000 or greater, led by Kansas City's Cole Ragans at $10,800 against the lowly Angels. Use him where you can afford him. Detroit is currently without a listed starter.
Run lines for Tuesday are tight across the slate, with all games sitting between 7.5 and 8.5 runs, so we're likely looking at a lot of varying opinions on where offense will come from this evening. Wind looks like an offensive deterrent as well Tuesday, with potentially double-digit gusts suppressing power in New York and Chicago. We could get some minor assistance in the Bay area for both San Francisco and Oakland.
Pitching
Robbie Ray, SF vs. CWS ($9,700): Maybe we'll see some fade Ray after his last start. It wasn't just the what last time out for the southpaw, but the how, as he looked to have completely lost his release point and had no idea where the ball was going. Innings/pitch count remains a concern for Ray too, capping his potential. But assuming he bounces back here, the matchup says he'll strike out more than a batter per innings. Chicago is targetable every night, and bring a 24.5 percent K rate against lefties with a .273 wOBA and 73 wRC+, scoring just four runs in their last three games.
Shane Baz, TB at OAK ($8,100): Perhaps I'm taking too much risk with Ray and Baz given the noted winds above, but they're both facing below average or worse offenses that have high strikeout rates. Oakland has a somewhat respectable .301 wOBA off righties, but a 98 wRC+ and 25.5 percent K rate. Baz is off a season-high 7.0 innings and has bettered a 4x return on this price twice in his last four starts. His .315 BABIP suggests there's room for him to progress, as does his 3.27 FIP on the road, nearly a full point lower than his 4.26 ERA.
Walker Buehler, LAD vs. SEA ($7,000): At no point did I intend to fill this section of the column with risk; I'm usually risk adverse in all phases of my life. Buehler has been awful, there's no debating that. But for this minimal price, I'll take a shot at a former big name to turn things around in this matchup. Seattle sits with a massive 28.3 percent strikeout rate, .297 wOBA and 98 wRC+ off righties. They have just a 3.8 run expectancy despite Buehler's current form. If he can avoid walks, we can get five or more innings of limited damage and potentially higher than he's shown strikeout totals.
Top Targets
For all the risk mentioned in the pitching section, perhaps I'll dial that down and try to not miss with our pay up bats. Bobby Witt ($4,600) has double-digit fantasy points in eight of his last 11 and comes with a stable .376 wOBA and 141 wRC+ off lefties while the Royals have the slate's highest expected run total at 5.6.. Angels' starter Tyler Anderson allowed seven runs in his last outing.
Francisco Lindor ($3,900) had a 12-game hitting streak snapped yesterday, but still managed nine fantasy points. He's second on the team with a 127 wRC+ off righties, and 17 of his 25 stolen bases have come off of them.
If we want to take a one-off play on power, Yordan Alvarez ($4,100) faces Nick Pivetta, who is allowing nearly two long balls per nine. Alvarez has 17 hits and five homers in his last 11.
Bargain Bats
Brice Turang ($3,000) has been on base 10 times in his last five games, resulting in three extra base hits, four runs and four steals. That gives him multiple paths to fantasy points in a matchup with Erick Fedde, who has allowed 10 runs in his last three starts.
Gavin Lux ($2,800) is surging with 10 hits, including three homers, over his last seven games. It's not the easiest matchup against Seattle's Bryce Miller, but he's been far more getable on the road, allowing a 4.76 ERA and 4.94 FIP, with lefties having more success.
Reds' starter Carson Spiers has just 20.0 road innings this season and may not throw enough innings to target his splits. But he's sporting a 6.30 road ERA, where he's allowing a .403 wOBA and .957 OPS to lefties. That can allow us to target Daulton Varsho ($2,800) who has seven hits in his last four games, or Spencer Horwitz ($2,800) who should also hit in the top portion of the Jays order and potentially get multiple plate appearances against Spiers.
Stacks to Consider
Rangers vs. Mitch Keller (Pirates): Corey Seager ($3,600), Marcus Semien ($3,200), Adolis Garcia ($3,200)
This slate is awfully challenging to confidently stack any lineup, so we'll bank on Keller's current form carrying over into a third straight start. He's surrendered a massive 15 runs and 15 hits over his last two outings, spanning just nine innings. It's fair to point out those starts came against the Dodgers and white hot Padres, while it's been a season long struggle for the Rangers. But that's made this stack more affordable. Seager is off a two homer, four RBI game and we know he's capable of going on power binges. Semien is riding an eight-game hitting streak and Garcia quietly has nine hits and three homers over his last six games. If you're not feeling this stack and need an additional value option, consider Robbie Grossman ($2,500) if he is in the lineup, as he's 5-for-8 off Keller.
Giants vs. Davis Martin (White Sox): Tyler Fitzgerald ($3,500), Matt Chapman ($3,100), LaMonte Wade ($2,600)
When in doubt, find the White Sox opponent, right? Martin enters Tuesday with a 3.00 ERA, but 4.79 xFIP and is walking a massive 5.0 per nine innings. It's a small sample, but he's allowing a .407 wOBA and .956 OPS to righties on the road. Fitzgerald is a fine stand alone play, bringing a team-best .410 wOBA, 169 wRC+ and .327 ISO off righties. He comes with three-position eligibility, offering ample flexibility, and has 15 hits in his last 11 games. Chapman we'd normally back more against a lefty, but his .330 wOBA and 115 wRC+ work well at this number as a second option to drive in runs. I'll target Wade as the third piece here as he gets on base, walking at a 16.2 percent mark off righties, resulting in a .394 OBP. Minimal upside, but for the price, we just need him on once in front of the other two run producers.
