This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A sizeable 13-game main slate is offered Tuesday at FanDuel. Only two pitchers are priced in five-figures, with five more coming in at the $9,000 tier. Only Oakland is without a listed pitcher, giving us 25 players to sort through on the mound. That means just 28 percent of the options are considered "elite" based on price, a significantly lower number than most days. As such, it shouldn't be surprising we don't a have a game with a run total lower than 8.0. Three games don't have listed totals as of Tuesday morning, and it's a little surprising only Yankees at Atlanta sits with double-digit expected runs, but that number surely rises as odds are posted.
Weather looks questionable in Washington for the Nationals-Red Sox game, while there could be some favorable winds in Minnesota, San Francisco and Los Angeles. Conversely, winds could help the arms in the White Sox-Cubs matchup.
Pitching
Bailey Ober, MIN vs. DET ($10,300): Ober isn't in terrific form, so perhaps that scares some off at this large price point. The matchup is enticing however, with Detroit ranking 29th with a .292 wOBA off righties, adding just an 85 wRC+ and 24.3 percent K rate. The risk here is BvP success, as Ober has allowed eight runs and 16 hits in two starts against the Tigers this season, spanning just 11.0 innings. That said, he has struck out 17 Tigers while averaging 33.5 FDP in those starts. Not elite for the price, but a 3x floor offers stability.
Kyle Hendricks, CHC vs. CWS ($8,400): Hendricks has allowed three runs or less in three of his last four starts, including a 32 FDP outing against the White Sox where he earned a quality start on July 25. He's a ground ball guy (46.2 percent) and the opponent is happy to oblige, with a 46.3 percent ground ball rate. The White Sox also have just an 83 wRC+ off righties, so we should have a stable floor in Hendricks. If we can confirm winds are blowing in, the damage figures to be further limited.
Touki Toussaint, CWS at CHC ($7,000): We're going to stay in Chicago and back the wind to limit offenses. Toussaint has a 51.3 percent ground ball rate, and the Cubs counter with a 43.8 percent grounder rate and only a 29.1 percent hard hit rate off righties. Toussaint has decent strikeout potential at 9.13 per nine, and that potential creates a decent ceiling at this price point. He's allowed four runs in each of his last two outings, but still has posted 30+ FDP thanks to the swing and miss. He's certainly capable of imploding, and with 6.2 walks per nine, his command and control issues force pitch counts up and limit his longevity. But he's proven capable of putting up ample fantasy production for this price, making for a solid GPP roll of the dice.
Top Targets
Prices are elevated for Diamondback bats in Coors Field, making stacking unlikely to be fiscally responsible, but building around Christian Walker ($4,000) is very doable. He's got a .400 wOBA, 152 wRC+ and .333 ISO off lefties, has homered in two of three and has 11 hits in his last seven games.
I'm not sure who I trust less, the Yankees lineup overall or Bryce Elder opposing them. Elder has allowed 6.48 ERA (5.07 FIP) in the second half and his home run rate has nearly doubled. As such, this feels like an Aaron Judge ($4,300) day as we expect the Yankees to scratch some and where that comes from is highly predictable.
Bargain Bats
Ozzie Albies being placed on the IL opens up bargains within the Atlanta lineup. Michael Harris ($3,200) slotted into the vacated two-hole Monday night, giving him more run-producing chances. Nicky Lopez ($2,100) has seven hits and eight RBI in 10 at-bats across two starts and comes at a near bottom price, but it's possible Vaughn Grissom ($2,000) is recalled and slots in over Lopez. Yankees' starter Luis Severino has been brutal, further suggesting we should take as many pieces of the Atlanta offense as we can, and these bargains are easily stackable. Severino is allowing a massive .555 wOBA and 1.341 OPS to lefties on the road. Queue up Eddie Rosario ($2,800) as well, and paying up for Matt Olson ($4,500) is in play too.
Arizona will try to piece together nine innings from their bullpen in Coors Field, so don't be scared off by their listed lefty opener. Ezequiel Tovar ($3,200) has 11 hits, including three homers, across his last eight games and offers an average priced top of the order option.
Jordan Lyles surprisingly doesn't have targetable splits at home, where he's been marginally better, but he's still allowed 17 runs in his last four starts. Absent splits, and the fact the Mariners haven't been good offensively all year, we can go to a limited BvP sample and identify Eugenio Suarez ($2,700), who is 5-for-9 (.556) with a homer and 1.747 OPS off Lyles.
Stacks to Consider
Mets vs. Bailey Falter: Francisco Lindor ($3,600), Brandon Nimmo ($3,000), Jeff McNeil ($2,700)
Falter has allowed 42 hits and and 17 runs across his last six starts, spanning just 26.1 innings. He's been battered more by left-handed bats, allowing a .465 wOBA and 1.102 OPS, so we shouldn't shy away from the top of the order Mets bats simply because of the left vs. left matchup, though maybe we don't specifically target that either. McNeil has poor splits off lefties, but appears locked in right now with an eight-game hitting streak. Lindor seems to offer more power from the right side, with a .248 ISO and decent 113 wRC+ and has 13 hits in his last 10 games. Nimmo gives a third bat atop the lineup. His LvL splits leave plenty to be desired, including his weak .092 ISO, but he's got multiple hits in three straight and nine total in his last six.
Twins vs. Alex Faedo: Ryan Jeffers ($2,800), Edouard Julien ($2,700), Carlos Correa ($2,700)
Faedo has a 5.80 ERA and 5.18 FIP, and is allowing 2.01 HR/9, yet the Twins don't have a bat priced north of $3,000, so there could be ample value found throughout this attack. Julien seems to offer a decent floor, with a .400 wOBA and 160 wRC+ off righties. Correa doesn't have positive splits, but is quietly sitting on an eight-game hitting streak where he's homered three times, including once off Faedo. Jeffers is no lock to slot into the lineup, but the price point throughout the lineup allows for interchangeable pieces. When he does play however, he's usually in the cleanup spot and has a targetable .392 wOBA and 154 wRC+ off righties.
